Climate change and northern shrimp recruitment variability in the Gulf of Maine

Richards, R. A.; Fogarty, M.; Mountain, DG; Taylor, MH

doi:10.3354/meps09869

Cited by 24 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 34 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Such trends may have important ecological implications, as key aspects of the behavior and/or seasonal distribution of many species are linked to specific temperature cues (e.g. Nye et al, 2009;Richards et al, 2012;Friedland et al, 2013). The trend towards earlier spring thresholds is in agreement with trends towards earlier spring thermal transition dates shown by Friedland et al (2015) in data averaged over broad regions of the shelf.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal trends and phenology shifts in sea surface temperature on the North American northeastern continental shelf

Thomas

Pershing

Friedland

et al. 2017

Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Thomas, AC, et al 2017 Seasonal trends and phenology shifts in sea surface temperature on the North American northeastern continental shelf. Elem Sci Anth, 5: 48, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.240 Introduction Sea surface temperatures (SST) on the North American continental shelf from Cape Hatteras to Nova Scotia (Figure 1) (hereinafter referred to as the northeastern shelf) exhibit one of the strongest warming trends of the global ocean (Burrows et al., 2011;Pershing et al., 2015; Saba et al., 2015), and the region has recently been subjected to a strong heat wave (Mills et al., 2013; Scannell et al., 2016). The warming trend has been implicated in shifts in the distribution of marine species (Lucey and Nye, 2010;Pinsky et al., 2013), many of which are of commercial importance (Nye et al., 2009;Pinsky and Fogarty, 2012), and some of which are invasive species able to exploit new ranges (e.g. Maynard et al., 2016; Stephenson et al., 2009). Such trends impose serious challenges for fisheries and fisheries management (e.g. Pinsky and Fogarty, 2012;Pershing et al., 2015). However, temperature interactions with species distributions and behaviors occur not only through trends in temperatures, latitudinal shifts in isotherms, or even in episodic events such as heat waves, but also through shifts in phenology, the timing within temperature seasonal cycles (Asch, 2015;Burrows et al., 2011). Friedland and Hare (2007) ). Winter (January-April) trends are relatively weak, and even negative in some areas; early summer (May-June) trends are positive everywhere, and later summer (July-September) trends are strongest (~1.0°C decade -1). These seasonal differences shift the phenology of many metrics of the SST cycle. The yearday on which specific temperature thresholds (8° and 12°C) are reached in spring trends earlier, most strongly over the Scotian Shelf and Gulf of Maine (~ -0.5 days year ). Three metrics defining the warmest summer period show significant trends towards earlier summer starts, later summer ends and longer summer duration over the entire study region. Trends in start and end dates are strongest (~1 day year -1 ) over the Gulf of Maine and Scotian Shelf. Trends in increased summer duration are >2.0 days year -1 in parts of the Gulf of Maine. Regression analyses show that phenology trends have regionally varying links to the North Atlantic Oscillation, to local spring and summer atmospheric pressure and air temperature and to Gulf Stream position. For effective monitoring and management of dynamically heterogeneous shelf regions, the results highlight the need to quantify spatial and seasonal differences in SST trends as well as trends in SST phenology, each of which likely has implications for the ecological functioning of the shelf.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal trends and phenology shifts in sea surface temperature on the North American northeastern continental shelf

Thomas

Pershing

Friedland

et al. 2017

Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Previous studies using temperature data collected shipboard during spring and fall resource surveys showed that spring temperature is linked to recruitment of shrimp in the Gulf of Maine (Richards et al ., , ). The current study using daily SST from remote sensing shows that the ‘spring’ temperature effect is centered on the time of larval emergence, generally from early February through to mid‐March, and thus is more accurately characterized as a winter temperature effect.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Early life survival of shrimp was calculated as the number of recruits (age 1.5 yr) per unit population fecundity (see Richards et al ., for full description):

S_{t} = ln false(R_{t + 1} false) - ln false(E_{t - 1} false)

…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The recruitment success of shrimp in the GOM is higher in years with cold water during spring, when the pelagic larvae are developing (Richards et al ., ). Temperature's most important influence has been hypothesized to be on the phenology of the larval hatch: warmer temperatures may cause the hatch to occur before phytoplankton is available as food for the newly hatched larvae (Stickney and Perkins, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The northern shrimp (hereafter 'shrimp') is at the southern limit of its distribution in the Gulf of Maine (GOM), where it is thought to be particularly sensitive to temperature (Dow, 1964(Dow, , 1977Apollonio et al, 1986;Richards et al, 2012). The GOM shrimp fishery collapsed during a warm period in the 1950s (Dow, 1964(Dow, , 1977), and subsequent studies have shown strong temperature effects on growth and reproduction (Stickney and Perkins, 1977;Apollonio et al, 1986;Richards et al, 2012). A recent decline began in 2009 and by 2012 the biomass had plummeted to historic lows (NEFSC 2014), leading to fishery closures during 2014 and 2015.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Use of satellite data to identify critical periods for early life survival of northern shrimp in the Gulf of Maine

Richards

O’Reilly

Hyde

2016

Fisheries Oceanography

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The northern shrimp Pandalus borealis is at its southern limit in the Gulf of Maine (GOM), and recruitment success is higher in years with relatively cool water temperature. However, the mechanisms for the temperature effect are not clear. We used rolling window analysis of daily satellite data to identify critical periods for early life survival of the 1998–2012 northern shrimp year‐classes and to investigate the importance of the phenology of the hatch and bloom. Survival was negatively correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) during a 6‐week period around the time of larval emergence (late winter) and during a 4‐week period in late summer when SST and stratification reached annual maxima. Survival was negatively correlated with chlorophyll‐a concentration (chl‐a) during two 5‐week periods centered approximately a month before the hatch midpoint and around the time of settlement to the benthos. A small‐magnitude winter bloom occurred around the time of the hatch in many years, but our results did not reveal a link between survival and bloom‐hatch phenology. The timing of winter and spring blooms were correlated with SST during the preceding 10 months. A survival model including SST and chl‐a during the critical periods explained 73% of the variance in survival. Summer SST increased significantly during the study period; the other critical variables showed no trend. The rolling windows approach revealed sensitive periods in early life history that may not have otherwise been hypothesized, providing a foundation for research towards a greater understanding of processes affecting recruitment.

show abstract

The Continuing Role of Life History Parameters to Identify Stock Structure

McBride

2014

Stock Identification Methods

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change and northern shrimp recruitment variability in the Gulf of Maine

Cited by 24 publications

References 34 publications

Seasonal trends and phenology shifts in sea surface temperature on the North American northeastern continental shelf

Seasonal trends and phenology shifts in sea surface temperature on the North American northeastern continental shelf

Use of satellite data to identify critical periods for early life survival of northern shrimp in the Gulf of Maine

The Continuing Role of Life History Parameters to Identify Stock Structure

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About