Climate change and the distribution of climatic resources for tourism in North America

Abstract

Tourism is a major sector of the global economy, and it is strongly influenced by climate. At some travel destinations, climate represents the natural resource on which the tourism industry is predicated. Global climate change has the potential to alter the distribution of climate assets among tourism destinations, with implications for tourism seasonality, demand and travel patterns. Changes in the length and quality of the tourism season have considerable implications for the long-term profitability of tourism enterprises and competitive relationships between destinations. This analysis utilizes a 'tourism climate index' (TCI) that incorporates 7 climate variables relevant to general tourism activities (i.e. sightseeing) to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of climate resources for tourism in North America under baseline conditions and 2 climate change scenarios (CGCM2-B2 and HadCM3-A1F1) for the 2050s and 2080s. The analysis found that a substantive redistribution of climate resources for tourism will be possible in the later decades of the 21st century, particularly in the warmer and wetter HadCM3-A1F1 scenario. The number of cities in the USA with 'excellent' or 'ideal' TCI ratings (TCI > 80) in the winter months is likely to increase, so that southern Florida and Arizona could face increasing competition for winter sun holiday travelers and the seasonal 'snowbird' market (retirees from Canada and the northern states of the USA, who spend 2 to 6 mo in winter peak and optimal climate destinations). In contrast, lower winter TCI ratings in Mexico suggest it could become less competitive as a winter sun holiday destination. In Canada, a longer and improved warm-weather tourism season may enhance its competitiveness in the international tourism marketplace, with potentially positive implications for its current international tourism account deficit. KEY WORDS: Tourism · Tourism climate index · Climate change · North America Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 27: [105][106][107][108][109][110][111][112][113][114][115][116][117] 2004 snow cover for skiing). A 1°C warmer than average summer season was found to increase domestic tourism expenditures in Canada by 4% (Wilton & Wirjanto 1998). Similar patterns were observed in the UK during unusually warm summers (Giles & Perry 1998). Agnew (1995) also found that in the UK, tourism spending abroad increased following a cold winter. Giles & Perry (1998) found that the exceptional summer of 1995 in the UK had the opposite effect, resulting in a drop in outbound tourism.Climate is both a 'push' and a 'pull' factor in tourism and for some destinations, represents the primary resource on which tourism is predicated. 'Escaping winter weather' was a prime travel motivation for 23% of Canadian respondents (OMTR 2002). Jorgensen & Solvoll (1996) estimated that 84% of tour charters from Norway were to 'sun destinations.' An annual survey of German traveller behaviour and tourism-related attitudes reve...

Future climate resources for tourism in Europe based on the daily Tourism Climatic Index

“…The northward shift of favourable tourism climate as well as the "bimodal shoulder peak" distribution are changes also reported for the Mediterranean (Amelung and Viner 2006) as well as North America (Scott et al 2004). For Southern Europe our results are similar to those of Amelung and Viner (2006).…”

“…Following Scott et al (2004), the thermal comfort is no longer measured by the "new effective temperature" (Gagge et al 1971) but instead by the "apparent temperature" (Steadman 1984). In addition, the original "wind chill Extremely unfavourable < 10 Impossible index" (Siple and Passel 1945) used for one of the four wind rating schemes suffers from some serious shortcomings and was replaced by the wind chill equivalent temperature (Osczevski and Bluestein 2005).…”

“…("very good") for instance in the Mediterranean in September. Most regions can be classified as "summer peak" distributions with the exception of the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean that tend towards "bimodal shoulder peaks" (see Scott et al 2004 for the typology of distributions) caused mainly by maximum temperatures rising too high in summer to be comfortable for sightseeing activities. Although all regions experience several months of "good" climate resources (TCI > 60), the differences are large: in the two southern regions there are twice as many "good" months as in the Alps or Scandinavia.…”

“…At the same time it is based on climate variables commonly available from weather stations and also climate models, making data provision and calculations fairly simple. However, the TCI also has a number of serious limitations that are currently being addressed by different research groups Scott et al 2004Scott et al , 2008. The most serious limitation of the TCI is its subjectivity and lack of verification.…”

“…The few studies have shown that climate change can substantially redistribute climate resources across regions and between seasons (see Amelung et al 2007 for a global scale; Amelung and Viner 2006 for the Mediterranean; and Scott et al 2004 for North America). The TCI is favoured as an index because it is one of the most comprehensive metrics, integrating all three facets of climate considered relevant for tourism: thermal comfort, physical aspects such as rain and wind, and the aesthetical facet of sunshine/cloudiness.…”