Climate Change and the Energy Sector in Brazil

Schaeffer, Roberto; Lucena, André F.P.; Costa, Isabella; Vasquez, Eveline; Viviescas, Cindy; Huback, Vanessa

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-92881-4_6

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…43 . Lower and uneven rainfall may affect the production of energy from hydroelectric sources, 44 , whether by drought or damages to the existing infrastructure by flooding 45 .…”

Section: Ai Physical Climate Risks That the Country Is Already Facingmentioning

confidence: 99%

COP26 Futures We Want - Brazil Country Profile

Nehring

Monte-Mór

Sparn

et al. 2021

Preprint

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This country profile for Brazil has been developed with the input from in-country academic experts, including Dr. Roberto Luís de Melo Monte-Mór (Federal University of Minas Gerais), Dr. Jakob Sparn, Dr. Olinda Canhoto (Centro de Biotecnologia Amazônia) and Dr. Carlos Lamarão (Federal University of Amazonas), in the context of the BEIS COP26 Futures We Want project. It provides a review of the available evidence on the risks, solutions and opportunities for Brazil and Brazilian society to contribute towards a global transition to a net zero future that is inclusive, resilient and desirable by all.

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“…43 . Lower and uneven rainfall may affect the production of energy from hydroelectric sources, 44 , whether by drought or damages to the existing infrastructure by flooding 45 .…”

Section: Ai Physical Climate Risks That the Country Is Already Facingmentioning

confidence: 99%

COP26 Futures We Want - Brazil Country Profile

Nehring

Monte-Mór

Sparn

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…Prolonged droughts and the evaporation of reservoirs are the primary threats to Brazil's hydroelectric infrastructure, potentially resulting in up to a 20% drop in energy production. 86 . A particular region of risk is the Amazon, which holds 73.6% of the country's surface water.…”

Section: Bii Examples Of How These Sectors May Be Impacted By Climate Change Including Any Materials Impacts On Trade Flowsmentioning

confidence: 99%

COP26 Futures We Want - Brazil Country Profile

Nehring

Monte-Mór

Sparn

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…The scenarios contemplate the predictions of climate change published in Silveira et al (2014Silveira et al ( , 2016, Tiezzi et al (2014), and Schaeffer et al (2018) for the upper São Francisco; described in the Introduction section. They cover the rainfall and temperature variations, between the minimum and maximum extremes, and the possible displacements of the dry and rainy seasons throughout the year.…”

Section: Future Climate Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The results for 2011-2099 show an overall increase in water quantity, especially for the hydroelectric plants Furnas and Três Marias. Schaeffer et al (2018) investigated the potential vulnerabilities of the Brazilian energy sector for sixteen hydroelectric plants in the period 2071-2100. Climate projections were based on A2 and B2 GHG emissions scenarios from IPCC.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydropower generation in future climate scenarios

Hidalgo

Paredes-Arquiola

Andreu

et al. 2020

Energy for Sustainable Development

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Knowledge on the effects of climate change in a system can contribute to the better management of its water and energy resources. This study evaluates the consequences of alterations in the rainfall and temperature patterns for a hydroelectric plant. The methodology adopted consists of four steps. First, a hydrological model is developed for the chosen basin following a semi-distributed and conceptual approach. The hydrological model is calibrated utilizing the optimization algorithm Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona (SCE-UA) and then validated. Secondly, a hydropower model is developed for a hydroelectric plant of the chosen basin. The hydropower model is adjusted to the physical characteristics of the plant. Thirdly, future climate scenarios are extracted from the literature for the studied area. These scenarios include quantitative and seasonal climate variations, as well as different initial reservoir levels. Fourth, the hydrological-hydropower model is simulated for 52 scenarios and the impact of changes in the rainfall and temperature patterns for hydropower generation is evaluated. For each scenario, the water storage in the reservoir and energy produced by the plant are analyzed. The financial impact for extreme scenarios is presented. The methodology is applied to the Três Marias hydroelectric plant at the upper São Francisco river basin (Brazil) and it can be replicated to any other hydropower system. The results show that extreme positive values predicted for rainfall will likely not cause issues to the plant, considering a moderate rise in temperature. However, negative predictions for rainfall, regardless of changes in temperature, should be an alert to the authorities responsible for water and energy resources management.

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Climate Change and the Energy Sector in Brazil

Cited by 5 publications

References 42 publications

COP26 Futures We Want - Brazil Country Profile

COP26 Futures We Want - Brazil Country Profile

COP26 Futures We Want - Brazil Country Profile

Hydropower generation in future climate scenarios

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