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This supplementary material contains the description of the Land-use and Energy-system models developed and applied in this study. It also presents the Scenario Building Procedure and more detailed results of the simulations made, including the georeferenced description of the land-use change, the composition of the energy mix and an analysis of the uncertainties of associated with the findings.

a b s t r a c t Available online xxxx JEL classification: H23 C88 Q40 Q54 C61 C63 C68 O57 Keywords: Climate policy Low-carbon energy scenarios Mitigation alternatives BrazilThis paper assesses the effects of market-based mechanisms and carbon emission restrictions on the Brazilian energy system by comparing the results of six different energy-economic or integrated assessment models under different scenarios for carbon taxes and abatement targets up to 2050. Results show an increase over time in emissions in the baseline scenarios due, largely, to higher penetration of natural gas and coal. Climate policy scenarios, however, indicate that such a pathway can be avoided. While taxes up to 32 US$/tCO 2 e do not significantly reduce emissions, higher taxes (from 50 US$/tCO 2 e in 2020 to 162US$/tCO 2 e in 2050) induce average emission reductions around 60% when compared to the baseline. Emission constraint scenarios yield even lower reductions in most models. Emission reductions are mostly due to lower energy consumption, increased penetration of renewable energy (especially biomass and wind) and of carbon capture and storage technologies for fossil and/or biomass fuels. This paper also provides a discussion of specific issues related to mitigation alternatives in Brazil. The range of mitigation options resulting from the model runs generally falls within the limits found for specific energy sources in the country, although infrastructure investments and technology improvements are needed for the projected mitigation scenarios to achieve actual feasibility.

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