Climate change and vector-borne diseases

Martens, W. J. M.; Jetten, Theo H.; Rotmans, Jan; Niessen, Louis

doi:10.1016/0959-3780(95)00051-o

Cited by 173 publications

(116 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Increased risk to humans may therefore arise in three ways: (i) improved conditions for natural transmission cycles resulting in higher densities of infected ticks; (ii) changed human behaviour resulting in greater exposure to ticks; and (iii) changed agricultural practices resulting in a higher consumption of raw milk. As both of the ¢rst two factors are climate dependent, TBEv is included in the list of vector-borne pathogens anticipated to become more of a threat to humans in a predicted warmer world (Lindgren 1998a;Martens 1999).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fragile transmission cycles of tick-borne encephalitis virus may be disrupted by predicted climate change

Randolph

Rogers

2000

Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B

152

101

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Repeated predictions that vector-borne disease prevalence will increase with global warming are usually based on univariate models. To accommodate the full range of constraints, the present-day distribution of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEv) was matched statistically to current climatic variables, to provide a multivariate description of present-day areas of disease risk. This was then applied to outputs of a general circulation model that predicts how climatic variables may change in the future, and future distributions of TBEv were predicted for them. The expected summer rise in temperature and decrease in moisture appears to drive the distribution of TBEv into higher-latitude and higher-altitude regions progressively through the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The ¢nal toe-hold in the 2080s may be con¢ned to a small part of Scandinavia, including new foci in southern Finland. The reason for this apparent contraction of the range of TBEv is that its transmission cycles depend on a particular pattern of tick seasonal dynamics, which may be disrupted by climate change. The observed marked increase in incidence of tick-borne encephalitis in most parts of Europe since 1993 may be due to non-biological causes, such as political and sociological changes.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fragile transmission cycles of tick-borne encephalitis virus may be disrupted by predicted climate change

Randolph

Rogers

2000

Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B

152

101

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“…Estimates of the change in mortality due to vector-borne diseases (e.g., malaria, schistosomiasis, dengue fever) as a result of a one degree increase in the global mean temperature are taken from Tol (2002a). The estimates result from overlaying the model studies of Martens et al (1995Martens et al ( , 1997, Martin and Lefebvre (1995), and Morita et al (1994) with mortality and morbidity figures from the WHO (Murray and Lopez, 1996). These studies suggest that the relationship between global warming and malaria is linear.…”

Section: Healthmentioning

confidence: 99%

La valoración económica de cambios en servicios del ecosistema: Una aplicación de la metodología CGE

Bosello

Eboli

Parrado

et al. 2011

EARN

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<span>The present study integrates Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling with biodiversity services, proposing a possible methodology for assessing climate-change impacts on ecosystems. The assessment focuses on climate change impacts on carbon sequestration services provided by European forest, cropland and grassland ecosystems and on provisioning services, but provided by forest and cropland ecosystems only. To do this via a CGE model it is necessary to identify first the role that these ecosystem services play in marketable transactions; then how climate change can impact these services; and finally how the economic system reacts to those changes by adjusting demand and supply across sectors, domestically and internationally.</span>

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“…10 Temperature (and humidity) are among the most important factors for malaria transmission. Parasite multiplication inside the cold blooded mosquito reduces dramatically at temperatures between 20 and 27˚C and parasite development ceases below 16˚C, so that malaria is confined by a 16˚C minimum temperature line.…”

Section: Will Global Warming Affect Malaria?mentioning

confidence: 99%