Climate Change, Carbon Dioxide, and Pest Biology, Managing the Future: Coffee as a Case Study

Abstract

The challenge of maintaining sufficient food, feed, fiber, and forests, for a projected end of century population of between 9-10 billion in the context of a climate averaging 2-4 • C warmer, is a global imperative. However, climate change is likely to alter the geographic ranges and impacts for a variety of insect pests, plant pathogens, and weeds, and the consequences for managed systems, particularly agriculture, remain uncertain. That uncertainty is related, in part, to whether pest management practices (e.g., biological, chemical, cultural, etc.) can adapt to climate/CO 2 induced changes in pest biology to minimize potential loss. The ongoing and projected changes in CO 2 , environment, managed plant systems, and pest interactions, necessitates an assessment of current management practices and, if warranted, development of viable alternative strategies to counter damage from invasive alien species and evolving native pest populations. We provide an overview of the interactions regarding pest biology and climate/CO 2 ; assess these interactions currently using coffee as a case study; identify the potential vulnerabilities regarding future pest impacts; and discuss possible adaptive strategies, including early detection and rapid response via EDDMapS (Early Detection & Distribution Mapping System), and integrated pest management (IPM), as adaptive means to improve monitoring pest movements and minimizing biotic losses while improving the efficacy of pest control.can encompass simple to sophisticated strategies (e.g., from hoeing to modifying the environment to utilize ecosystem services) to manage pest populations and ensuing damage.Recent and projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration are expected to continue with a potential 2× increase over current CO 2 levels, and subsequent, concomitant increases in average temperature between 0.15 and 0.3 • C, per decade, by 2100 [3,4]. Such projections, as well as recent potential changes in extreme events, increase the degree of uncertainty of how these environmental changes could impact pest biology (insects, plant pathogens, weeds), and the consequences for future biotic losses from managed plant systems.Recent and projected increases in atmospheric CO 2 could change pest biology in two essential ways. The first is related to physical changes in the environment incurred as CO 2 increases. Such increases, along with other radiation trapping gases (e.g., CH 4 , N 2 O), will increase surface temperatures [5], cause changes in precipitation frequency [6], and alter the diurnal temperature range (DTR) [7], as well as the magnitude and distribution of extreme weather events [8]. A second essential consequence is the "fertilization" effect of rising CO 2 on plant photosynthesis; approximately 95% of plant species, those that rely solely on the C 3 photosynthetic pathway, could increase growth and reproduction as CO 2 increases, including agronomic and invasive weeds. There are hundreds of studies and several meta-analyses showing that both recen...

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