Climate change effects on deer and moose in the Midwest

Abstract

Climate change is an increasing concern for wildlife managers across the United States and Canada. Because climate change may alter populations and harvest dynamics of key species in the region, midwestern states have identified the effects of climate change on ungulates as a priority research area. We conducted a literature review of projected climate change in the Midwest and the potential effects on whitetailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and moose (Alces alces). Warmer temperatures and decreasing snowpack in the region favor survival of white-tailed deer. In contrast, moose may become physiologically stressed in response to warming, and increasing deer populations spreading disease will exacerbate the problem. Although there is some uncertainty about exactly how the climate will change, and to what degree, robust projections suggest that deer populations will increase in response to climate change and moose populations will decrease. Managers can begin preparing for these changes by proactively creating management plans that take this into account. Ó

Importance of spatio–temporal connectivity to maintain species experiencing range shifts

“…For example, warmer temperatures and less snowfall in the winter (Supplementary material Appendix 1 Fig. A7) favor the survival and population spreading of white-tailed deer (Weiskopf et al 2019), which may also lead to population expansion of its predator, grey wolf (Fig. 5).…”

“…The latter applies ensemble species distribution models to predict potential distributions of three terrestrial mammals in North America with divergent vulnerabilities to climate change: white-tailed deer, Canada lynx and grey wolf. We expect that white-tailed deer and grey wolf will expand their range due to warmer temperatures and lower winter severity in future climates (Weiskopf et al 2019), leading to a lower importance of spatio-temporal connectivity. We also expect that Canada lynx will contract its range due to less snowfall in winters (Hoving et al 2005), which may produce a higher relative importance of spatio-temporal connectivity.…”

Adjusting the lens of invasion biology to focus on the impacts of climate-driven range shifts

“…In the same forests, white-tailed deer and their associated parasites are expanding northward in response to climate change 65 . Due to the introduction of these parasites as well as increasing thermal stress, moose, boreal specialists, are ultimately predicted to be extirpated from sites along their southern range edge 66 . Conversely, moose are expanding at the northern end of their range in response to the encroachment of deciduous forest into the tundra, leading to a decline in native caribou populations 67 (Fig.…”

“…Range shifters can impact recipient communities. For example, as white-tailed deer expand their range (yellow) northward (arrows pointing upwards) in response to climate change, moose at the southern edge of their range (green) are experiencing greater rates of parasitism and are projected to undergo population declines66 . In contrast, moose populations at the northern range edge are increasing and replacing caribou 67 (blue).…”

What are the effects of climate variability and change on ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in North America? A systematic map protocol

“…Changes in habitat [7], climate conditions [8,9], and predator communities [8] are of increasing concern to ungulate managers [10]. Of these, an improved understanding of the effects of changing climate conditions has been highlighted as a key information need [11][12][13]. Climatic variation occurs across multiple spatial and temporal scales, and understanding the impacts of both short-and long-term changes will provide valuable information to wildlife and land managers.…”