Climate Change Impact on Hydrologic System in Aji River Basin

Abstract

The CCAM (GFDL) RCM simulated daily maximum/minimum temperature and rainfall datafor the base line period and future scenario for the IPCC SRES rcp 4.5 for 4 grid points (50kmx50km) falling in Aji basin were bias corrected using Probability Distribution Mapping adopting Gaussian and Gamma distribution respectively. The warming trend of annual average of daily minimum and maximum temperature from 1970-2005 to 2006-2070 was found increased from 0.027 o C year -1 to 0.04 o C year -1 and 0.027 o C year -1 to 0.025 o C year -1 respectively. The rainfall, runoff and groundwater recharge in the basin were found in statistically stable trend in Aji basin. The best probability distribution was used for estimating each water balance component. The crop water requirements during winter, summer and monsoon season may increase/decrease by the tune of 6.4%, -0.3% and 1.5% during winter, summer and monsoon season respectively in the future as compared to the past, due to climate change impacts. The monsoon seasonal rainfall will be decreased in the future due to climate change impacts. However, the extreme rainfall (100 year return period) event will be increased in the future by the tune of 39%. Similarly, the runoff will be decreased in the future but the extreme event (100 year return period) of runoff will be increased by the tune of 87.5%. The extremity (100 year return period) in the crop evapotranspiration and ground water recharge may be decreased by -5.7% and -5.8% respectively.

Simulating the Water Footprints of Sweet Corn (Zea Mays L.) Under Various Irrigation Water Management Strategies Using Aqucrop Mode

“…Climate change can affect agriculture in a variety of ways. Climate change effect on Aji river basin was finely elaborated by Rank et al, 2020. The optimal crop yield and water use efficiency can be achieved through sound irrigation scheduling by imposing the optimal moisture stress during different growth stages .…”

Effectiveness of Gaussian Distribution Mapping for Bias Correction of RCM Simulated Temperature for Junagadh Region

“…The conditions for achieving water security, sustainable and climate resilient development can be achieved through system transformations (Caretta et al, 2022). The water scarcity in the coastal area of Suarshtra region of Gujarat state of India, is the major issue which can be further worsened in the future under the threat of climate change (Rank, et al, 2020;Caretta et al, 2022). The ever-increasing population has forced to produce more from limited inputs.…”