Climate Change Impact on the Trigger of Natural Disasters over South-Eastern Himalayas Foothill Region of Myanmar: Extreme Rainfall Analysis

Abstract

The study examines the characteristics and variability of monsoon rainfall in Myanmar, focusing on the relationship between heavy rainfall, floods, and earthquakes, which impact agriculture, hydrology, and the environment. Generally, heavy rainfall can cause flooding, economic losses, and water table changes. Northern Myanmar floods occur mainly during the monsoon season from June to October and can be classified into widespread floods along major rivers like Ayeyarwady, Thanlwin, Chindwin, and Sittoung and flash floods in small streams and rivers. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall, which can trigger floods or landslides, which also can in turn cause earthquakes. Heavy rainfall over northern Myanmar and the Sagaing faults, which are the main triggers of earthquakes, has been the subject of several studies. The study uses the Copernicus 5 database of global climate model (GCM) simulations with two scenario analyses on climate change detection and indices (ETCCDI) to study changes in climatic extremes. Results show high intensity in the northern region and monsoon core regions, while the central region shows less intensity. The study also uses intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves to analyze the relationship between rainfall duration, intensity, and return time in major risk zones. The study finds that as short duration lengthens, rainfall intensity increases for future rainfall patterns. This information is expected to be convenient for local authorities and flood protection projects in rural and urban basins.

Assessing Future Changes in Variability of Mainland Indochina Southwest Monsoon Rainfall

“…Furthermore, as previously noted, SSP5-8.5 has larger projected increase and drop magnitudes, which are probably due to its higher forcing (Oo et al, 2023). In conclusion, enhancing the consecutive dry days and the extreme rainfall events are linked to the predicted exceeding the variability of MSWM rainfall over Mainland Indochina.…”

“…In response to the challenges posed by intense rainfall, the Mainland Indochina government has undertaken a series of proactive measures aimed at alleviating the associated impacts. This multifaceted approach re ects the government's commitment to safeguarding its populace and minimizing the adverse effects of heavy rainfall on the region (Manatsa et al, 2014;Oo et al, 2023). The remaining details of this study outline are as follow: section 2 provides a concise overview of the study area, data sources, and the methods employed for calculating climate extremes indices.…”

“…The ongoing global warming, driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, has had a substantial impact on the mean-state climate and its associated variability (Tao et al, 2016). It is crucial to ascertain whether the variability of Mainland Indochina Southwest Monsoon (MSWM) rainfall will intensify as a result of global warming (Oo et al, 2023). This understanding is essential for devising effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to address climate change.…”

Predictability of Extreme Rainfall Events During Southwest Monsoon (Mswm) Season in Myanmar: A Physics- Based Empirical Modeling Approach

“…In the northern regions of Myanmar, oods predominantly transpire during the monsoon season each year. These oods show up as quick, unexpected ash oods in minor streams and rivers as well as broad inundations along larger rivers including the Ayeyarwady, Chindwin, Sittoung, and Thanlwin [11]. Thus, there is a growing national need in both society and science for accurate forecasting of extreme rainfall over Myanmar.…”