Climate change impact on water resources availability: case study of the Llobregat River basin (Spain)

Abstract

Climate change may have significant consequences for water resources availability and management at the basin scale. This is particularly true for areas already suffering from water stress, such as the Mediterranean area. This work focused on studying these impacts in the Llobregat basin supplying the Barcelona region. Several climate projections, adapted to the spatiotemporal resolution of the study, were combined with a daily hydrological model to estimate future water availability. Depending on the scenario and the time period, different assessment indicators such as reliability and resilience showed a future decrease in water resources (up to 40%), with drought periods becoming more frequent. An additional uncertainty analysis showed the high variability of the results (annual water availability ranging from 147 hm 3 /year to 274 hm 3 /year), thus making accurate projections difficult. Finally, the study illustrates how climate change could be taken into account to provide adaptive measures for the future.

Climate Change Implications for Water Availability: A Case Study of Barcelona City

“…Some researchers have highlighted [19,20] how the HBV model is accurate, reproducing present and future water processes in the Llobregat basin. Thus, the HBV model is suitable to simulate the reservoirs' contributions over the Llobregat and Ter's basin.…”

Consequences of climate change in the availability of water in the Southeast of the Iberian Peninsula. Evaluation of the INVEST hydrological model in future scenarios

“…Se convierten por lo tanto en entornos necesarios para asegurar un abastecimiento mínimo que permita el desarrollo de las actividades agrícolas, industriales y urbanas de sus vegas aguas abajo. Sin embargo, estas regiones de cabecera, como atestiguan numerosos trabajos (Morán-Tejeda et al, 2010;Versini et al, 2016;Garcia et al, 2017), presentan una mayor vulnerabilidad que los ámbitos más bajos a los efectos del cambio climático, por lo que se deberían presentar como áreas prioritarias en las planificaciones actuales y futuras.…”

Assessment of Water Availability and Scarcity Based on Hydrologic Components in an Irrigated Agricultural Watershed Using SWAT

“…Garrote et al (2016) analyzed the water stress by taking into account water management, temporal and spatial heterogeneity, and policy options under climate scenarios based on the Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Analysis model in Euro‐Mediterranean River Basins. Versini et al (2016) estimated future water resources availability and analyzed the uncertainty by the combination of hydrologic model and ensemble climate scenarios in the Llobregat River Basin of Spain. Jordan et al (2018) analyzed the water‐use efficiency by land cover changes and irrigation management using the SWAT model in the Bulgan River watershed of western Mongolia.…”