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BackgroundLeishmaniosis is associated with Phlebotomus sand fly vector density, but our knowledge of the environmental framework that regulates highly overdispersed vector abundance distributions is limited. We used a standardized sampling procedure in the bioclimatically diverse Murcia Region in Spain and multilevel regression models for count data to estimate P. perniciosus abundance in relation to environmental and anthropic factors.MethodsTwenty-five dog and sheep premises were sampled for sand flies using adhesive and light-attraction traps, from late May to early October 2015. Temperature, relative humidity and other animal- and premise-related data recorded on site and other environmental data were extracted from digital databases using a geographical information system. The relationship between sand fly abundance and explanatory variables was analysed using binomial regression models.ResultsThe total number of sand flies captured, mostly with light-attraction traps, was 3,644 specimens, including 80% P. perniciosus, the main L. infantum vector in Spain. Abundance varied between and within zones and was positively associated with increasing altitude from 0 to 900 m above sea level, except from 500 to 700 m where it was low. Populations peaked in July and especially during a 3-day heat wave when relative humidity and wind speed plummeted. Regression models indicated that climate and not land use or soil characteristics have the greatest impact on this species density on a large geographical scale. In contrast, micro-environmental factors such as animal building characteristics and husbandry practices affect sand fly population size on a smaller scale.ConclusionsA standardised sampling procedure and statistical analysis for highly overdispersed distributions allow reliable estimation of P. perniciosus abundance and identification of environmental drivers. While climatic variables have the greatest impact at macro-environmental scale, anthropic factors may be determinant at a micro-geographical scale. These finding may be used to elaborate predictive distribution maps useful for vector and pathogen control programs.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-017-2135-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.