Climate change impacts and greenhouse gas mitigation effects on U.S. hydropower generation

Boehlert, Brent; Strzepek, Kenneth; Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Swanson, Richard; McCluskey, Alyssa; Neumann, James E.; McFarland, James; Martinich, Jeremy

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.09.054

Cited by 64 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…• On the other hand, due to climate change, the alteration of river discharge will affect water availability and regularity, and energy generation [93,94]. However, climate change will not lead to significant changes in the global hydropower generation [90,93,[95][96][97].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Opportunities and Challenges for the Sustainability of Lakes and Reservoirs in Relation to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Goethals

2019

Water

110

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Emerging global threats, such as biological invasions, climate change, land use intensification, and water depletion, endanger the sustainable future of lakes and reservoirs. To deal with these threats, a multidimensional view on the protection and exploitation of lakes and reservoirs is needed. The holistic approach needs to contain not just the development of economy and society but also take into account the negative impacts of this growth on the environment, from that, the balance between the three dimensions can be sustained to reach a sustainable future. As such, this paper provides a comprehensive review on future opportunities and challenges for the sustainable development of lakes and reservoirs via a critical analysis on their contribution to individual and subsets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Currently, lakes and reservoirs are key freshwater resources. They play crucial roles in human societies for drinking water provision, food production (via fisheries, aquaculture, and the irrigation of agricultural lands), recreation, energy provision (via hydropower dams), wastewater treatment, and flood and drought control. Because of the (mostly) recent intensive exploitations, many lakes and reservoirs are severely deteriorated. In recent years, physical (habitat) degradation has become very important while eutrophication remains the main issue for many lakes and ponds worldwide. Besides constant threats from anthropogenic activities, such as urbanization, industry, aquaculture, and watercourse alterations, climate change and emerging contaminants, such as microplastics and antimicrobial resistance, can generate a global problem for the sustainability of lakes and reservoirs. In relation to the SDGs, the actions for achieving the sustainability of lakes and reservoirs have positive links with the SDGs related to environmental dimensions (Goals 6, 13, 14, and 15) as they are mutually reinforcing each other. On the other hand, these actions have direct potential conflicts with the SDGs related to social and economic dimensions (Goals 1, 2, 3 and 8). From these interlinkages, we propose 22 indicators that can be used by decision makers for monitoring and assessing the sustainable development of lakes and reservoirs.

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confidence: 99%

Opportunities and Challenges for the Sustainability of Lakes and Reservoirs in Relation to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Goethals

2019

Water

110

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“…These adequacy studies utilize data surveys (observed water withdrawals per generator, etc. ), sometimes combined with hydrology simulations, to assess how low-water conditions could reduce hydropower generation as well as the capacity of thermoelectric plants as a result of constrained withdrawals (Macknick et al 2012;Tidwell et al 2012;Poch et al 2009;Boehlert et al 2016;Kao et al 2015). Forward-looking analyses and modeling of the energy-water nexus is an emerging area of research.…”

Section: Opportunities For Joint Water-energy Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Opportunities for Joint Water–Energy Management: Sensitivity of the 2010 Western U.S. Electricity Grid Operations to Climate Oscillations

Voisin

Kintner-Meyer

et al. 2018

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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The increasing interconnectedness of energy and water systems makes it important to understand how interannual variations in water availability—and climate oscillations—could potentially impact the electric grid operations. The authors assess the vulnerability of the current western U.S. grid to historical climate variability using multiple energy and water system models. A 55-yr-long natural water availability benchmark is combined with the 2010 level of water demand from an integrated assessment model to drive a large-scale water management model over the western United States. The regulated flow at hydropower and thermoelectric power plants is then translated into boundary conditions for electricity generation in a production cost model. This analysis focuses on assessing regional interdependencies and the impact of interannual changes in water availability on power system operations, including reliability, cost, and carbon emissions. Results for August grid operations—when stress on the grid is often highest—show a range of sensitivity in production cost (–8% to +11%) and carbon emissions (–7% to +11%), as well as a 1-in-10 chance that electricity demand will exceed estimated supply. The authors also show that operating costs are lower under neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions than under other ENSO phases; carbon emissions are highest under La Niña conditions, especially in California; and the risk of brownouts may be higher under neutral and negative ENSO conditions. These results help characterize the grid’s performance under historical climate variations, are useful for seasonal and multiyear planning of joint water–electricity management, and can be used to support impact, adaptation, and vulnerability analyses.

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“…In addition to these generation potential studies, there are several studies that also include the potential impact on the electricity market (i.e., for the EU [4,22], the U.S. [13,26,27], the Iberian Peninsula [28,29], Norway [30], and Austria and Germany [31]). Boehlert et al [26] combine a monthly water resources systems model with an electric sector planning model to analyze the impact of climate change on U.S. hydropower generation.…”

Section: Climate Change and Water Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Boehlert et al [26] combine a monthly water resources systems model with an electric sector planning model to analyze the impact of climate change on U.S. hydropower generation. They find a general increase in hydropower generation due to higher inflows in the Pacific Northwest, while generation decreases in months with already low runoffs today.…”

Section: Climate Change and Water Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower

et al. 2018

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Abstract:Hydropower represents an important pillar of electricity systems in many countries. It not only plays an important role in mitigating climate change, but is also subject to climate-change impacts. In this paper, we use the Swiss electricity market model Swissmod to study the effects of changes in water availability due to climate change on Swiss hydropower. Swissmod is an electricity dispatch model with a plant-level representation of 96% of Swiss hydropower plants and their interrelations within cascade structures. Using this detailed model in combination with spatially disaggregated climate-change runoff projections for Switzerland, we show that climate change has ambiguous impacts on hydropower and on the overall electricity system. Electricity prices and overall system costs increase under dry conditions and decrease under average or wet conditions. While the change of seasonal patterns, with a shift to higher winter runoff, has positive impacts, the overall yearly inflow varies under hydrological conditions. While average and wet years yield an increase in inflows and revenues, dry years become drier, resulting in the opposite effect. Even though different in magnitude, the direction of impacts persists when applying the same changes in inflows to the 2050 electricity system.

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Climate change impacts and greenhouse gas mitigation effects on U.S. hydropower generation

Cited by 64 publications

References 21 publications

Opportunities and Challenges for the Sustainability of Lakes and Reservoirs in Relation to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Opportunities and Challenges for the Sustainability of Lakes and Reservoirs in Relation to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Opportunities for Joint Water–Energy Management: Sensitivity of the 2010 Western U.S. Electricity Grid Operations to Climate Oscillations

The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower

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