Climate change impacts on peak building cooling energy demand in a coastal megacity

Ortiz, Luis; González, Jorge E.; Lin, Wuyin

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aad8d0

Cited by 51 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…This includes the thermal surface properties of the roof, wall and road and AC model parameters, as summarized in Table 2. The thermal properties were adopted from Salamanca et al [45] while the AC model parameters follow previous work [43,46].…”

Section: Urbanized Weather and Research Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapting to Extreme Heat: Social, Atmospheric, and Infrastructure Impacts of Air-Conditioning in Megacities—The Case of New York City

Gamarro

Ortiz

González

2020

ASME Journal of Engineering for Sustainable Buildings and Cities

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Extreme heat events are becoming more frequent and intense. In cities, this problem is often intensified by the presence of the urban heat island (UHI). This presents major challenges to reduce adverse health effects of hot weather, particularly in vulnerable populations. Here we explore the impacts of increasing residential air conditioning (AC) adoption as an adaptive measure to extreme heat, with New York City (NYC) as a case study. This study uses AC adoption data from New York City Housing and Vacancy Surveys to study impacts to indoor heat exposure, energy demand, and UHI. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, coupled with a multi-layer building environment parameterization and building energy model (BEP-BEM) is used to perform this analysis. The BEP-BEM schemes are modified to account for partial AC use and used to analyze current and full AC adoption scenarios. A city-scale case study is performed over the summer months of June – August 2018, which includes three different extreme heat events. Simulation results show good agreement with surface weather stations. Results show that increasing AC systems to 100% usage across NYC results in a peak energy demand increase of 20%, while the UHI slightly increases on average by 0.42 °C. Results highlight potential tradeoffs in extreme heat adaptation strategies for cities, which may be necessary in the context of increasing extreme heat events.

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Section: Urbanized Weather and Research Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapting to Extreme Heat: Social, Atmospheric, and Infrastructure Impacts of Air-Conditioning in Megacities—The Case of New York City

Gamarro

Ortiz

González

2020

ASME Journal of Engineering for Sustainable Buildings and Cities

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“…Furthermore, these summertime increases in heat‐related mortality may not be offset by decreases in cold‐weather deaths in Manhattan, New York (Li et al , ), the city's most densely populated borough. Warm weather also increases energy demand for air conditioning (Le Comte and Warren, ; Santamouris et al , ; Miller et al , ; Ortiz et al , ), although decreases in winter heating may partially or completely offset the cost of increased cooling (Rosenthal et al , ). Infrastructure and health impacts may also occur simultaneously, as was shown for the 2003 NYC city‐wide blackout, which saw a 25% increase in non‐accidental deaths (Anderson and Bell, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High‐resolution projections of extreme heat in New York City

Ortiz

González

Horton

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Heat waves impact a wide array of human activities, including health, cooling energy demand, and infrastructure. Cities amplify many of these impacts by concentrating large populations and critical infrastructure in relatively small areas. In addition, heat waves are expected to become longer, more intense, and more frequent in North America. Here, we evaluate combined climate and urban surface impacts on localized heat wave metrics throughout the 21st century across two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for New York City (NYC), which houses the largest urban population in the United States. We account for local biases due to urban surfaces via bias correcting with observed records and urbanized 1‐km resolution dynamical downscaling simulations across selected time periods (2045–2049 and 2095–2099). Analysis of statistically downscaled global model output shows underestimation of uncorrected summer daily maximum temperatures, leading to lower heat wave intensity and duration projections. High‐resolution dynamical downscaling simulations reveal strong dependency of changes in event duration and intensity on geographical location and urban density. Event intensity changes are expected to be highest closer to the coast, where afternoon sea‐breezes have traditionally mitigated summer high temperatures. Meanwhile, event duration anomaly is largest over Manhattan, where the urban canopy is denser and taller.

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“…In general, cooling demand is connected to climate change warming effects. One estimate suggests that a 1 C increase in temperature increases cooling demand by 8% in New York City (Ortiz, González, & Lin, 2018). City-wide cooling demand is projected to increase by 5-27%, depending on representative concentration pathway (Ortiz et al, 2018).…”

Section: Urban Sustainability Research Contributions To New York Citymentioning

confidence: 99%

City‐scale urban sustainability: Spatiotemporal mapping of distributed solar power for New York City

Taminiau¹,

Byrne

2020

WIREs Energy & Environment

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Research into urban sustainability increasingly deploys advanced analytics and large-scale data to investigate possible sustainable energy options. This paper reviews several available data-driven approaches that answer urban sustainability questions. One such approach is applied to identify energy consumption and rooftop photovoltaic (PV) generation potential in New York City at the electricity network level with the objective of improving the city's resilience to expected impacts of climate change. Electric system resilience is, in part, dependent on the spatial and temporal distribution of consumption and potential sustainable energy generation which is investigated here by separating the city into 68 electricity networks and evaluating their generationconsumption interaction pattern. The analysis reveals that New York City could be home to about 10 GWp of rooftop solar installations-sufficient to cover approximately 25% of annual city electricity consumption and 53% of daylight hour consumption. Localized electricity import-export dimensions are explored for each of the 68 electricity networks and we identify an excess 3.1 TWh electricity supply per year if the entire technical potential of rooftop solar PV is deployed. This excess electricity supply is roughly equivalent to an annual $734 million value which could benefit low-income areas in the city.

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Climate change impacts on peak building cooling energy demand in a coastal megacity

Cited by 51 publications

References 41 publications

Adapting to Extreme Heat: Social, Atmospheric, and Infrastructure Impacts of Air-Conditioning in Megacities—The Case of New York City

Adapting to Extreme Heat: Social, Atmospheric, and Infrastructure Impacts of Air-Conditioning in Megacities—The Case of New York City

High‐resolution projections of extreme heat in New York City

City‐scale urban sustainability: Spatiotemporal mapping of distributed solar power for New York City

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