Climate change impacts on runoff in Sweden-assessments by global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modelling

Bergström, Sten; Carlsson, Bengt; Gardelin, Marie; Lindström, Göran; Pettersson, Anna; Rummukainen, Markku

doi:10.3354/cr016101

Cited by 289 publications

(207 citation statements)

References 24 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

189

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Although past studies have calculated changes to such variables as the 100-year flow (e.g. Bergström et al 2001), such results are of limited use when based upon the delta approach. In comparison, hydrological simulations with precipitation scaling provide representation of changes in variability.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models

et al. 2007

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Although representation of hydrology is included in all regional climate models (RCMs), the utility of hydrological results from RCMs varies considerably from model to model. Studies to evaluate and compare the hydrological components of a suite of RCMs and their use in assessing hydrological impacts from future climate change were carried out over Europe. This included using different methods to transfer RCM runoff directly to river discharge and coupling different RCMs to offline hydrological models using different methods to transfer the climate change signal between models. The work focused on drainage areas to the Baltic Basin, the Bothnian Bay Basin and the Rhine Basin. A total of 20 anthropogenic climate change scenario simulations from 11 different RCMs were used. One conclusion is that choice of GCM (global climate model) has a larger impact on projected hydrological change than either selection of emissions scenario or RCM used for downscaling.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models

et al. 2007

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This has recently proliferated their use in impact studies (e.g. Bergstrom et al, 2001;Wood et al, 2004;Zhu et al, 2004;Graham et al, 2007 a,b); and is further discussed in "Downscaling for hydrological impact studies".…”

Section: • Computationally Intensivementioning

confidence: 99%

Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling

Fowler

Blenkinsop

Tebaldi

2007

Intl Journal of Climatology

1,928

1,491

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:There is now a large published literature on the strengths and weaknesses of downscaling methods for different climatic variables, in different regions and seasons. However, little attention is given to the choice of downscaling method when examining the impacts of climate change on hydrological systems. This review paper assesses the current downscaling literature, examining new developments in the downscaling field specifically for hydrological impacts. Sections focus on the downscaling concept; new methods; comparative methodological studies; the modelling of extremes; and the application to hydrological impacts.Consideration is then given to new developments in climate scenario construction which may offer the most potential for advancement within the 'downscaling for hydrological impacts' community, such as probabilistic modelling, pattern scaling and downscaling of multiple variables and suggests ways that they can be merged with downscaling techniques in a probabilistic climate change scenario framework to assess the uncertainties associated with future projections. Within hydrological impact studies there is still little consideration given to applied research; how the results can be best used to enable stakeholders and managers to make informed, robust decisions on adaptation and mitigation strategies in the face of many uncertainties about the future. It is suggested that there is a need for a move away from comparison studies into the provision of decision-making tools for planning and management that are robust to future uncertainties; with examination and understanding of uncertainties within the modelling system.

show abstract

“…For the model calibration and validation and the control simulation of the system, precipitation and temperature time series were used from a meteorological station located within the catchment. The PET time series is calculated based on the Penman-Monteith version given by Burman and Pochop (1994). Daily mean inflow into the accumulation reservoir and electricity production data were obtained from FMM.…”

Section: Data Collectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and hydropower production in the Swiss Alps: quantification of potential impacts and related modelling uncertainties

Schaefli¹,

Hingray²,

Musy³

2007

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

241

207

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper addresses two major challenges in climate change impact analysis on water resources systems: (i) incorporation of a large range of potential climate change scenarios and (ii) quantification of related modelling uncertainties. The methodology of climate change impact modelling is developed and illustrated through application to a hydropower plant in the Swiss Alps that uses the discharge of a highly glacierised catchment. The potential climate change impacts are analysed in terms of system performance for the control period (1961 1990) and for the future period (2070 2099) under a range of climate change scenarios. The system performance is simulated through a set of four model types, including the production of regional climate change scenarios based on global-mean warming scenarios, the corresponding discharge model, the model of glacier surface evolution and the hydropower management model. The modelling uncertainties inherent in each model type are characterised and quantified separately. The overall modelling uncertainty is simulated through Monte Carlo simulations of the system behaviour for the control and the future period. The results obtained for both periods lead to the conclusion that potential climate change has a statistically significant negative impact on the system performance.

show abstract

Climate change impacts on runoff in Sweden-assessments by global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modelling

Cited by 289 publications

References 24 publications

On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models

On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models

Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling

Climate change and hydropower production in the Swiss Alps: quantification of potential impacts and related modelling uncertainties

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About