Climate change impacts on the biophysics and economics of world fisheries

Sumaila, U. Rashid; Cheung, William W. L.; Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Pauly, Daniel; Herrick, Samuel

doi:10.1038/nclimate1301

Cited by 558 publications

(334 citation statements)

References 82 publications

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“…Another critical point is whether ectothermic prey with a strict thermal optimum, such as myctophid fish [56], will be able to track the shift of the water masses to maintain their thermal optimum. In other parts of the world, several studies indicated that fish populations are responding to climate change by shifting their geographical distribution [4,57,58]. Unfortunately, myctophid fish are poorly studied in the sub-Antarctic waters and their response to future warming is unknown.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected poleward shift of king penguins' ( Aptenodytes patagonicus ) foraging range at the Crozet Islands, southern Indian Ocean

2012

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Seabird populations of the Southern Ocean have been responding to climate change for the last three decades and demographic models suggest that projected warming will cause dramatic population changes over the next century. Shift in species distribution is likely to be one of the major possible adaptations to changing environmental conditions. Habitat models based on a unique long-term tracking dataset of king penguin ( Aptenodytes patagonicus ) breeding on the Crozet Islands (southern Indian Ocean) revealed that despite a significant influence of primary productivity and mesoscale activity, sea surface temperature consistently drove penguins' foraging distribution. According to climate models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the projected warming of surface waters would lead to a gradual southward shift of the more profitable foraging zones, ranging from 25 km per decade for the B1 IPCC scenario to 40 km per decade for the A1B and A2 scenarios. As a consequence, distances travelled by incubating and brooding birds to reach optimal foraging zones associated with the polar front would double by 2100. Such a shift is far beyond the usual foraging range of king penguins breeding and would negatively affect the Crozet population on the long term, unless penguins develop alternative foraging strategies.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected poleward shift of king penguins' ( Aptenodytes patagonicus ) foraging range at the Crozet Islands, southern Indian Ocean

2012

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“…In addition, governments are increasingly requiring traceability of fishery products, strengthening PSMA efforts, and enhancing transparency for seafood buyers. Suppliers of sustainable seafood have struggled to keep up with overall demand, and these shortfalls could worsen with climate impacts (74).…”

Section: Behavioral Incentives and Social Normsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The right incentives enable ocean sustainability successes and provide hope for the future

Lubchenco

Cerny-Chipman

Reimer

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

131

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Healthy ocean ecosystems are needed to sustain people and livelihoods and to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Using the ocean sustainably requires overcoming many formidable challenges: overfishing, climate change, ocean acidification, and pollution. Despite gloomy forecasts, there is reason for hope. New tools, practices, and partnerships are beginning to transform local fisheries, biodiversity conservation, and marine spatial planning. The challenge is to bring them to a global scale. We dissect recent successes using a complex adaptive-systems (CAS) framework, which acknowledges the interconnectedness of social and ecological systems. Understanding how policies and practices change the feedbacks in CASs by altering the behavior of different system components is critical for building robust, sustainable states with favorable emergent properties. Our review reveals that altering incentives—either economic or social norms, or both—can achieve positive outcomes. For example, introduction of well-designed rights-based or secure-access fisheries and ecosystem service accounting shifts economic incentives to align conservation and economic benefits. Modifying social norms can create conditions that incentivize a company, country, or individual to fish sustainably, curb illegal fishing, or create large marine reserves as steps to enhance reputation or self-image. In each example, the feedbacks between individual actors and emergent system properties were altered, triggering a transition from a vicious to a virtuous cycle. We suggest that evaluating conservation tools by their ability to align incentives of actors with broader goals of sustainability is an underused approach that can provide a pathway toward scaling sustainability successes. In short, getting incentives right matters.

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“…Second, the case also illustrates what happens if the conditions for the environmental change-social conflict nexus widen, because the mackerel dispute has until now never been used to theorize on the "environmental change-social conflict nexus." This is surprising because in fisheries and marine sciences, the conflict has the status of a "paradigm case" (Flyvbjerg 1998) that demonstrates the impact of climate fluctuations on fish populations, fishers, and conflicts over marine resources (Sumaila et al 2011;Pinsky and Fogarty 2012). Although the precise causes behind the mackerel shift remain to be fully understood, the mackerel case holds up as an empirical example of a process of global environmental change that will manifest itself more pronounced and widely in the decades to come.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental change and social conflict: the northeast Atlantic mackerel dispute

2017

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A recurrent critique of the proposition of a causal relation between environmental change and social conflict is that it fails to account for the complexities and dynamics of processes of social-ecological change. In this article, we open the black box of contextual factors that influence the causal pathway from environmental change to social conflict. Firstly, we argue for the consideration of three social factors that influence that pathway: (a) institutions, (b) power, and (c) knowledge. Taking a deductive approach, we ascertain their causal importance in the case of the "mackerel dispute," an interstate conflict that unfolded after the abrupt and rapid change in distribution of the northeast Atlantic mackerel stock after 2007. We analyze the historical development of the mackerel dispute through process tracing and demonstrate the importance and causal role of the three factors. Secondly, based on our assessment, we argue to increase the diversity of the scope conditions relevant for the environmental changesocial conflict nexus. We propose to consider a wider variety of conflicts as outcome of environmental change, highincome regions as an arena for those conflicts, and a wider variety of environmental change, such as alterations in abundance in the context of climate change. Lastly, we discuss how future research on this topic can handle the wider scope conditions and greater case variability.

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Climate change impacts on the biophysics and economics of world fisheries

Cited by 558 publications

References 82 publications

Projected poleward shift of king penguins' ( Aptenodytes patagonicus ) foraging range at the Crozet Islands, southern Indian Ocean

Projected poleward shift of king penguins' ( Aptenodytes patagonicus ) foraging range at the Crozet Islands, southern Indian Ocean

The right incentives enable ocean sustainability successes and provide hope for the future

Environmental change and social conflict: the northeast Atlantic mackerel dispute

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