Climate-change impacts on understorey bamboo species and giant pandas in China’s Qinling Mountains

Tuanmu, Mao‐Ning; Viña, Andrés; Winkler, Julie A.; Li, Yu; Xu, Weihua; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Liu, Jianguo

doi:10.1038/nclimate1727

Cited by 147 publications

(88 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…To minimize collinearity between these bioclimatic variables, we calculated intercorrelations among 2 of the 19 bioclimatic variables, and one of the variables was removed when the correlation coefficient > |0.70|. Our method for selecting predictor was very similar to Tuanmu et al (2013). As a result, eight bioclimatic variables (Bio 2, Bio 4, Bio 10, Bio 11, Bio 15, Bio 17, Bio 18 and Bio 19; Table S3) were used to construct our models.…”

Section: Study Area and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many of the bamboo species consumed by giant pandas are found to be sensitive to climate change (Qing, 1989). A recent study finds that three dominant bamboo species would face a substantial reduction in the distributional ranges during the 21st century in the Qingling Mountains (Tuanmu et al, 2013). However, the potential consequences of climate change on bamboo species distributions in other regions and species diversity in entire giant panda habitats remain exclusive, which is required for the design of an effective conservation network for panda conservation under climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change‐induced decline in bamboo habitats and species diversity: implications for giant panda conservation

Wong

et al. 2014

Diversity and Distributions

108

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Aim Conservation strategies must anticipate how climate change may alter the geographic distributions of limited food resources for highly specialized species. Here, we use bamboo as a case study to investigate climate change-induced changes in species diversity and discuss how to protect the critical food species for giant pandas.Location Giant panda habitats.Methods Using a niche-based model and the most updated climate projections, we projected the current and future distribution of 16 bamboo species under no and universal dispersal assumptions. We then assessed the impact of climate change on bamboo forests and their alpha and beta diversities in the giant panda habitats and reserves.Results Under both dispersal assumptions and three RCPs, six bamboo species are projected to vanish from panda habitats as climate change progresses, resulting in a great loss of the current bamboo forests. Although about half of the bamboo species may potentially colonize new climatically suitable areas under universal dispersal, the other species would experience significant habitat loss. Consequently, climate change would reduce both the alpha and beta diversity of bamboo species in panda habitats. Meanwhile, the proportion of single-species bamboo forests would significantly increase. The decline in bamboo forests and diversity would be most drastic in Qinling, Daxiangling and Qionglaishan Mountains, whereas those in the north-west of Minshan Mountains and Liangshan Mountains may increase.Main conclusions Climate change-induced decline in bamboo habitats and species diversity would pose a severe challenge to the food availability of giant pandas. We posit that human-assisted adaptation and increasing bamboo species diversity are critical to ensuring food security of the giant panda in a changing climate. Our results indicate that conservation planning should not only incorporate species range shifts but also diversity patterns in communities under climate change.

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Section: Study Area and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change‐induced decline in bamboo habitats and species diversity: implications for giant panda conservation

Wong

et al. 2014

Diversity and Distributions

108

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Nevertheless, the population is thought to be vulnerable to the increasingly warmer and drier climate that is expected to occur in this century (Liu et al, 2004;Wang et al, 2010). Climate change may reduce significantly both the area of giant panda habitats (Songer et al, 2012;Fan et al, 2014) and food supplies (Tuanmu et al, 2013) in panda reserves, jeopardizing their effectiveness to safeguard giant panda populations in the future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change threatens giant panda protection in the 21st century

Wong

et al. 2015

Biological Conservation

111

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a b s t r a c tIt is increasingly recognized that biotic interactions could play a significant role in species distribution modelling. To assess the conservation effectiveness of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) reserves in a changing climate, we combined both biotic variables (food availability) and abiotic (climatic and geographic) to project the potential changes of distribution and quality of giant panda habitats using the most recent IPCC-CMIP5 climate scenarios. Our results suggested that climate change would adversely affect giant pandas through habitat degradation, in that: (1) 52.9-71.3% of the current habitats could be lost; (2) the giant panda habitats could become more fragmented and isolated; and (3) both the quantity and quality of habitats in the current giant panda reserves could substantially contract, and approximately 20% of the reserves could lose all habitat representations in this century. Additionally, we found that climate change would make it increasingly necessary to translocate small populations of pandas from the southwestern to the northwestern part of the current distribution range to ensure population viability. Our results suggest the need for immediate change in current conservation policies and formulating adaptation plans for giant panda conservation in a changing climate.

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“…The accumulated knowledge from previous studies lays a good foundation for the systematic design of this study, such as the selection of model variables. As a typical coupled human and natural system, findings and methods developed in the reserve have been applied to many other parts of the world (e.g., Liu et al 2003, Xu et al 2006, Yu and Liu 2007, Bawa et al 2010, Chen et al 2010, Tuanmu et al 2012, An et al 2014, Bradbury et al 2014. It is our hope that insights from this study (e.g., feedback mechanisms and management implications) will be similarly useful for research and management in many other areas around the world.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Feedback of telecoupling: the case of a payments for ecosystem services program

Yang¹,

Lupi²,

Zhang³

et al. 2018

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Around the globe, previously isolated rural areas are increasingly connected with other distant places (e.g., cities) by telecouplings (i.e., environmental and socioeconomic interactions over distances) such as payments for ecosystem services (PES) programs, labor migration, and tourism. Although many studies have estimated impacts of telecouplings in rural areas, little is known about how these impacts might in turn affect telecouplings themselves through feedbacks. Using household survey data collected in China's Wolong Nature Reserve for giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), we evaluated an unexpected impact of the telecoupling of the Grain to Green Program (GTGP)-one of the largest PES programs in the world. This impact may trigger a feedback that can strengthen the GTGP in the future. A previous study in Wolong found that afforestation on marginal cropland promoted by the GTGP has significantly intensified crop damage by wildlife on nearby remaining cropland. We evaluated how this change might in turn affect the GTGP by estimating the impact of crop damage induced by the current GTGP on local households' willingness to participate in possible future GTGP. Our results show that due to the impact of the current GTGP on crop damage, local households may enroll 10.4% more cropland that is close to the afforested lands in future GTGP, which suggests a positive feedback that will strengthen the influences of the GTGP in Wolong and beyond. Our study highlights that local human-nature interactions driven by telecouplings, such as human-wildlife conflicts, may trigger feedbacks that affect telecouplings themselves. With improved understanding of telecouplings' feedbacks, scientists, policy-makers, and conservation practitioners can better anticipate the complex interactions among different places and design effective conservation strategies for achieving sustainability objectives such as those set by the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals.

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Climate-change impacts on understorey bamboo species and giant pandas in China’s Qinling Mountains

Cited by 147 publications

References 20 publications

Climate change‐induced decline in bamboo habitats and species diversity: implications for giant panda conservation

Climate change‐induced decline in bamboo habitats and species diversity: implications for giant panda conservation

Climate change threatens giant panda protection in the 21st century

Feedback of telecoupling: the case of a payments for ecosystem services program

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