Climate change threatens giant panda protection in the 21st century

Abstract

a b s t r a c tIt is increasingly recognized that biotic interactions could play a significant role in species distribution modelling. To assess the conservation effectiveness of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) reserves in a changing climate, we combined both biotic variables (food availability) and abiotic (climatic and geographic) to project the potential changes of distribution and quality of giant panda habitats using the most recent IPCC-CMIP5 climate scenarios. Our results suggested that climate change would adversely affect giant pandas through habitat degradation, in that: (1) 52.9-71.3% of the current habitats could be lost; (2) the giant panda habitats could become more fragmented and isolated; and (3) both the quantity and quality of habitats in the current giant panda reserves could substantially contract, and approximately 20% of the reserves could lose all habitat representations in this century. Additionally, we found that climate change would make it increasingly necessary to translocate small populations of pandas from the southwestern to the northwestern part of the current distribution range to ensure population viability. Our results suggest the need for immediate change in current conservation policies and formulating adaptation plans for giant panda conservation in a changing climate.

Climate change challenges the current conservation strategy for the giant panda

“…5). A recent study on the whole giant panda distribution area suggested that the mean patch size of habitats would decrease from the current 652 ha to 531 ha, and the most severe fragmentation would drive the mean patch size of the habitats decreased by 30% (Li et al, 2015). The decreased mean patch size (451 ha) of the habitat in the whole giant panda distribution area would not be smaller than the extinction threshold area 400 ha under future climate changes.…”

“…Other recent studies of the entire giant panda distribution area showed that 53-71% of the current habitats would be lost under the climate scenarios. They predict that future suitable habitats would likely be located in high-elevation areas in the Min Shan and Liang Shan (Li et al, 2015), and the suitable habitat gradually moves north under projected global climate change (Jian et al, 2014).…”

“…The corridors would facilitate giant panda migration and colonization among the different habitat blocks to allow a response to climate change. These new reserves could potentially serve as stepping-stones or corridors to facilitate giant panda migration to the emerging new habitats (Li et al, 2015). To ensure long-term survival, it is necessary to restore the diminishing habitats in the giant panda reserves by forestry planning and protecting or introducing bamboos in climatically suitable areas.…”

Population abundance and trends of Saltmarsh (Ammodramus caudacutus) and Nelson’s (A. nelsoni) Sparrows: influence of sea levels and precipitation

“…Species with limited geographic ranges, small population sizes, and habitat specializations are especially vulnerable to rapidly changing climate which may increase the risk of extinction for some taxa (Castro de la Guardia et al 2013;Li et al 2015). Identifying the specific aspects of climate change that affect population sizes and trends is a first but critical step in the assessment of how climate change will influence population persistence.…”

Proposed biodiversity conservation areas: gap analysis and spatial prioritization on the inadequately studied Qinghai Plateau, China

“…These SDMs, which rely on ecological theory of processes that mediate species distributions and abundance -especially niche theory (Guillera-Arroita et al 2015), are currently the main approach for converting individual point-locality data, such as museum collection records (Loiselle et al 2003;Peterson et al 2011) into the potential distributional range of a species or predicted ranges following global climate change (Li et al 2015). Thus, SDMs have the potential to play a critical role in supporting spatial conservation decision making, especially when conservation biologists are often pressed to make recommendations about conserving biodiversity based on limited species-distribution data and biodiversity resources (Addison et al 2013).…”