Climate change in Norway: warm summers limit grouse reproduction

Selås, Vidar; Sonerud, Geir A.; Framstad, Erik; Kålås, John Atle; Kobro, Sverre; Pedersen, Helge B.; Spidsø, Tor Kristian; Wiig, Øystein

doi:10.1007/s10144-010-0255-0

Cited by 51 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…In continental Europe and Britain, landuse change also refers to the intensification of agriculture and changes in grazing pressure by livestock, as well as increased browsing by ungulates. Nonetheless, within the suite of processes accompanying the population decline and reduction in cyclic amplitude, climate change (Moss et al, 2001;Ludwig et al, 2006;Selås et al, 2011) and an increase in generalist predators (Baines, 1991;Vos, 1995;Kurki et al, 1998) are factors that may also contribute to the negative trends in European woodland grouse. To date, these factors have received comparatively little attention.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Declining reproductive output in capercaillie and black grouse – 16 countries and 80 years

Jahren¹,

Storaas²,

Willebrand³

et al. 2016

Animal Biol

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Declines in populations of capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) and black grouse (Lyrurus tetrix) have been reported from both Central Europe and the continuous boreal forests of Fennoscandia. While intensified land-use is assumed to be the underlying cause of these declines, the mechanisms are not yet understood. Predation is the proximate cause of mortality of eggs, chicks and adults throughout capercaillie and black grouse ranges, but the link between predation and habitat and/or climate change remains unclear. To investigate temporal trends in reproductive output of woodland grouse, we collated previously published and unpublished data of reproduction in capercaillie and black grouse throughout their ranges from 1930 to 2012. We show that, overall, reproductive success has decreased and stabilized at low levels in most regions whilst capercaillie reproductive output in Scotland is still declining. With today's net reproduction, capercaillie and black grouse adult survival is too low to compensate for reproduction declines. Consequently, populations are expected to further decline unless reproductive performances improve. We put our findings in the context of changes in land use, climate and generalist predator numbers. By critically reviewing how these factors limit reproductive success in capercaillie and black grouse, we hope to shed light on the underlying mechanisms causing the decline. Our results imply that measures should be undertaken to reduce mortality of capercaillie and black grouse chicks and eggs. We suggest that future studies should aim to better understand which predators limit capercaillie and black grouse populations and how predation rates are mediated by continuously changing habitat and climate.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Declining reproductive output in capercaillie and black grouse – 16 countries and 80 years

Jahren¹,

Storaas²,

Willebrand³

et al. 2016

Animal Biol

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“…Hence, response mechanisms to climate change are likely complex and highly interrelated. Such interactions and animal responses are difficult to predict in detail, but here we showed the general trends that should be expected and that are beginning to be documented elsewhere (e.g., Selås et al 2010). By modeling the basic components of fundamental niches (temperature and precipitation), we have gained some understanding of the outer bounds and drivers of potential shifts in distributions that may be expected to occur.…”

mentioning

confidence: 54%

“…- Climate warming will fundamentally alter ecosystems in Alaska, likely resulting in new species and habitat assemblages (Stralberg et al 2009, Murphy et al 2010. For example, Selås et al (2010) found that ptarmigan reproduction was negatively correlated with the preceding two summers' temperatures, and that this relationship was likely mediated by climate-induced responses at lower trophic levels. Hence, response mechanisms to climate change are likely complex and highly interrelated.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking Alaska's Predicted Climate, Gyrfalcon, and Ptarmigan Distributions in Space and Time: A Unique 200-Year Perspective.

Booms¹

2011

Gyrfalcons and Ptarmigan in a Changing World

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ABSTRACT.-Gyrfalcons (Falco rusticolus), Rock Ptarmigan (Lagopus muta), and Willow Ptarmigan (L. lagopus) are quintessential Arctic species that are closely linked within the Arctic ecosystem. They likely face similar challenges in the face of rapid changes to their Arctic climate. Gyrfalcons in particular may be most challenged by rapid climate change because of their relatively specialized ecological niche, small population size, and K-selected life history strategy. Given this situation, we were interested in predicting how the distribution of these species may change under current climate predictions. Therefore, we modeled the fundamental niche of each species in relation to temperature and precipitation in space and time across 200 years in Alaska (1900-2100). Though the realized niche will ultimately determine where species are distributed in the future, we interpreted our predictions as representing the areas in which environmental conditions will allow the species to occur. We were interested in the large-scale, climate-induced trends in expansion, contraction, and overlap of these areas over time.We used the Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning (SNAPs) regionalized/downscaled decadal mean June and December temperature and precipitation predictions from the A1B scenario, and as proposed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to forward-model distributions from 2009-2099 in 30-year intervals. We used historical temperature and precipitation measurements from 1900-2006 to backwards-model the distribution of the species' fundamental niche to qualitatively assess forward-modeling predictive accuracy.Forward-models predicted that the fundamental niches of Gyrfalcons and ptarmigan will contract spatially, and backwards-models suggested that they have contracted in the past as Alaska's climate has warmed. Over the 200-year period, the total geographic area over which the species' fundamental niches were predicted to occur decreased overall by 20% (Willow Ptarmigan), 40% (Rock Ptarmigan) and 60% (Gyrfalcon). The distribution of the predicted fundamental niche of each species also became more fragmented, and the percent of spatial overlap between predicted presence of Gyrfalcons and ptarmigan declined over time. These alterations may affect the species' long-term viability and co-evolution and will likely influence important biological processes such as dispersal, genetic diversity, predator-prey dynamics, and basic behavior. Predicted shifts in the geographic distribution of their fundamental niches may have cascading effects on other species, communities, and systems. For science-based, pro-active, adaptive management, 177

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“…Abundance of rodents can function as an index of predation rates if the alternative prey hypothesis (Kjellander and Nordstrom 2003;Hagen 1952) is valid. We obtained long term rodent trap data from two sites in our study area; Å motsdalen from 1991 to 2011 (Framstad 2012;Selas et al 2011) and Fuggdalen from 1974 to 2009 (Selas et al 2011) (see Fig. 1).…”

Section: Large-scale Climate Variationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large-scale climate variability and rodent abundance modulates recruitment rates in Willow Ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus)

Kvasnes¹,

Pedersen

Storaas³

et al. 2014

J Ornithol

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Recruitment of juveniles is important for the size of the next year's breeding population in many bird species. Climate variability and predation may affect recruitment rates, and when these factors are spatially correlated, recruitment rates in spatially separated populations of a species may be synchronized. We used production data from an extensive survey of Willow Ptarmigan from 2000 to 2011 to investigate spatial synchrony in recruitment of juveniles within and among mountain region populations. In addition, we assessed the effects of predation and large-as well as local-scale climate on recruitment of juveniles. Recruitment was synchronized both within and among mountain regions, but the mean spatial correlation was strongest among mountain regions. This may be caused by small-scale factors such as predation or habitat structure, or be a result of sampling variation, which may be large at small spatial scales. The strong synchrony suggests that populations are subject to similar environmental forces. We used mixed effect models at the survey area and mountain region scales to assess the effect of rodent abundance (a proxy for predation rates) and local and regional climate during the breeding season on the recruitment of juvenile birds. Model selection based on AICc revealed that the most parsimonious models at both spatial scales included positive effects of rodent abundance and the North Atlantic oscillation during May, June and July (NAO MJJ ). The NAO MJJ index was positively related to temperature and precipitation during the pre-incubation period; temperature during the incubation period and positive NAO MJJ values accelerate plant growth. A comparison of the relative effects of NAO MJJ and rodent abundance showed that variation in NAO MJJ had greatest impact on the recruitment of juveniles. This suggests that the climate effect was stronger than the effect of rodent abundance in our study populations. This is in contrast to previous studies on Willow Ptarmigan, but may be explained by the collapse in rodent cycles since the 1990s. If Willow Ptarmigan dynamics in the past were linked to the rodent cycle through a shared predator regime, this link may have been weakened when rodent cycles became more irregular, resulting in a more pronounced effect of environmental perturbation on the dynamics of ptarmigan.

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Climate change in Norway: warm summers limit grouse reproduction

Cited by 51 publications

References 42 publications

Declining reproductive output in capercaillie and black grouse – 16 countries and 80 years

Declining reproductive output in capercaillie and black grouse – 16 countries and 80 years

Linking Alaska's Predicted Climate, Gyrfalcon, and Ptarmigan Distributions in Space and Time: A Unique 200-Year Perspective.

Large-scale climate variability and rodent abundance modulates recruitment rates in Willow Ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus)

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