Climate change in the Tahoe basin: regional trends, impacts and drivers

Coats, Robert

doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9828-3

Cited by 55 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 50 publications

(66 reference statements)

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“…To cancel out the seasonal variations, 1-year moving averages of daily values are presented. This finding is consistent with the value estimated by Coats (2008) and by Sahoo and Schladow (2008). In making such comparison between the studies, it is also relevant to highlight the differences between the present study and that of Sahoo and Schladow (2008).…”

Section: Lake Warming and Stability Changesupporting

confidence: 94%

“…However, due to progressive loss of clarity, at the rate of 0.22 m/year (Tahoe Environmental Research Center (TERC) 2008), the lake has been the focus of major efforts by local, state, and federal agencies and policy-makers to halt the trend in clarity and trophic status. Moreover, records of the past 38 years show that Lake Tahoe has become both warmer and more stable (Coats et al 2006;Coats 2008). Air temperature and precipitation, and their hydrologic linkages (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…4). Analyzing observed in-lake water temperature records of the past 38 years , Coats (2008) reported that: (1) the volume-weighted mean temperature of Lake Tahoe increases at an average rate of 0.013°C/year; and (2) the resistance of the lake to mixing increases. If this trend continues, the lake may ultimately be permanently stratified.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of climate change on thermal properties of lakes and reservoirs, and possible implications

Sahoo

Schladow

Reuter

et al. 2010

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Meteorologic-driven processes exert large and diverse impacts on lakes' internal heating, cooling, and mixing. Thus, continued global warming and climate change will affect lakes' thermal properties, dynamics, and ecosystem. The impact of climate change on Lake Tahoe (in the states of California and Nevada in the United States) is investigated here, as a case study of climate change effects on the physical processes occurring within a lake. In the Tahoe basin, air temperature data show upward trends and streamflow trends indicate earlier snowmelt. Precipitation in the basin is shifting from snow to rain, and the frequency of intense rainfall events is increasing. In-lake water temperature records of the past 38 years show that Lake Tahoe is warming at an average rate of 0.013°C/year. The future trends of weather variables, such as air temperature, precipitation, longwave radiation, downward shortwave radiation, and wind speed are estimated from predictions of three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the period 2001-2100. Future trends of weather variables of each GCM are found to be different to those of the other GCMs. A series of simulation years into the future (2000-2040) is established using streamflows and associated loadings, and meteorologic data sets for the period 1994-2004. Future simulation years and trends of weather variables are selected so that: (1) future simulated warming trend would be consistent with the observed warming trend (0.013°C/year); and (2) future mixing pattern frequency would closely match with the historical mixing pattern frequency. Results of 40-year simulations show that the lake continues to become warmer and more stable, and mixing is reduced. Continued warming in the Tahoe has important implications for efforts towards managing biodiversity and maintaining clarity of the lake.

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Section: Lake Warming and Stability Changesupporting

confidence: 94%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of climate change on thermal properties of lakes and reservoirs, and possible implications

Sahoo

Schladow

Reuter

et al. 2010

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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“…These scenarios were also key parts of the recent State of California climate-change assessments (Cayan et al , 2009.…”

Section: Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given widespread concerns about the approaching climate changes, such assessments are being performed in local to regional resource systems worldwide, and assessment strategies and scenarios have emerged that are being used for initial assessments. For example, the State of California has recently completed the second in a biannual round of State-scale climate-change assessments using scenarios of the sort analyzed here Cayan et al 2009), a new US national assessment of potential climate-change impacts is in planning stages and will be largely scenario based (NCA 2011), and the next IPCC Assessment is expected to focus even more than in the past on regional scenarios (Doherty et al 2009). …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Projections and downscaling of 21st century temperatures, precipitation, radiative fluxes and winds for the Southwestern US, with focus on Lake Tahoe

Dettinger

2012

Climatic Change

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Recent projections of global climate changes in response to increasing greenhousegas concentrations in the atmosphere include warming in the Southwestern US and, especially, in the vicinity of Lake Tahoe of from about +3°C to +6°C by end of century and changes in precipitation on the order of 5-10 % increases or (more commonly) decreases, depending on the climate model considered. Along with these basic changes, other climate variables like solar insolation, downwelling (longwave) radiant heat, and winds may change. Together these climate changes may result in changes in the hydrology of the Tahoe basin and potential changes in lake overturning and ecological regimes. Current climate projections, however, are generally spatially too coarse (with grid cells separated by 1 to 2°latitude and longitude) for direct use in assessments of the vulnerabilities of the much smaller Tahoe basin. Thus, daily temperatures, precipitation, winds, and downward radiation fluxes from selected global projections have been downscaled by a statistical method called the constructed-analogues method onto 10 to 12 km grids over the Southwest and especially over Lake Tahoe. Precipitation, solar insolation and winds over the Tahoe basin change only moderately (and with indeterminate signs) in the downscaled projections, whereas temperatures and downward longwave fluxes increase along with imposed increases in global greenhouse-gas concentrations.

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Snowmelt Timing as a Determinant of Lake Inflow Mixing

Roberts

Forrest

Sahoo

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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Snowmelt is a significant source of carbon, nutrient, and sediment loads to many mountain lakes. The mixing conditions of snowmelt inflows, which are heavily dependent on the interplay between snowmelt and lake thermal regime, dictate the fate of these loads within lakes and their ultimate impact on lake ecosystems. We use five decades of data from Lake Tahoe, a 600 year residence‐time lake where snowmelt has little influence on lake temperature, to characterize the snowmelt mixing response to a range of climate conditions. Using stream discharge and lake profile data (1968–2017), we find that the proportion of annual snowmelt entering the lake prior to the onset of stratification increases as annual snowpack decreases, ranging from about 50% in heavy‐snow years to close to 90% in warm, dry years. Accordingly, in 8 recent years (2010–2017) where hourly inflow buoyancy and discharge could be quantified, we find that decreased snowpack similarly increases the proportion of annual snowmelt entering the lake at weak to positive buoyancy. These responses are due to the stronger effect of winter precipitation conditions on streamflow timing and temperature than on lake stratification, and point toward increased nearshore and near‐surface mixing of inflows in low‐snowpack years. The response of inflow mixing conditions to snowpack is apparent when isolating temperature effects on snowpack. Snowpack levels are decreasing due to warming temperatures during winter precipitation. Thus, our findings suggest that climate change may lead to increased deposition of inflow loads in the ecologically dynamic littoral zone of high‐residence time, snowmelt‐fed lakes.

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Climate change in the Tahoe basin: regional trends, impacts and drivers

Cited by 55 publications

References 50 publications

Effects of climate change on thermal properties of lakes and reservoirs, and possible implications

Effects of climate change on thermal properties of lakes and reservoirs, and possible implications

Projections and downscaling of 21st century temperatures, precipitation, radiative fluxes and winds for the Southwestern US, with focus on Lake Tahoe

Snowmelt Timing as a Determinant of Lake Inflow Mixing

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