Climate change‐induced impacts on urban flood risk influenced by concurrent hazards

Pedersen, Agnethe Nedergaard; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Arnbjerg‐Nielsen, Karsten

doi:10.1111/j.1753-318x.2012.01139.x

Cited by 22 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Ivanov et al, 2004;Martina and Entekhabi, 2006;Noto et al, 2008) with specific regard to the application of the width function (WF) geomorphic approach Rodriguez-Iturbe et al, 1994;Rodríguez-Iturbe and Rinaldo, 1997) also considering varying geomorphoclimatic (Graf, 1977;Rodriguez-Iturbe and Valdes, 1979;Rodriguez-Iturbe et al, 1982;Naden, 1992;Di Lazzaro and Volpi, 2011;Volpi et al, 2013) and urban settings (Veitzer and Gupta, 2001;Smith et al, 2002;Ogden et al, 2011) for providing flood risk managers and decision makers an accurate informative framework to develop safe river basin and urban area development and management plans (e.g. Cunha et al, 2011;Faulkner et al, 2012;Pedersen et al, 2012;Ciervo et al, 2014;Emanuelsson et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the impact of urbanization on flood hydrology of small ungauged basins: the case study of the Tiber river tributary network within the city of Rome

Nardi

Annis

Biscarini

2015

J Flood Risk Management

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The small ungauged basins of the highly urbanized area of the city of Rome are often the subject of critical flood conditions for the significant human‐made transformations. In this work the EBA4SUB framework, implementing the hydrogeomorphic width function instantaneous unit hydrograph rainfall run‐off model, and using digital elevation model, land use and synthetic precipitation as main input information, is applied for evaluating extreme hydrologic forcing conditions at the basic scale. The goal is to understand the rationale behind the observed increasing frequency of local urban inundations that are also observed in the uplands. Results present the impact of urbanization expressed by both the run‐off coefficient, the artificial drainage, impacted by paved surfaces and a dramatic number of river–road intersections (i.e. culverts), and the upstream to downstream non‐natural scaling behaviour of hydrologic parameters and in particular the peak discharge per unit drainage area.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the impact of urbanization on flood hydrology of small ungauged basins: the case study of the Tiber river tributary network within the city of Rome

Nardi

Annis

Biscarini

2015

J Flood Risk Management

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“…A year is defined as the calendar year January–December. The majority of extreme rainfall events occur in the period May–October [ Gregersen et al ., ; Pedersen et al ., ]. Therefore, with the use of the calendar year estimated extreme rainfall statistics are independent from year to year, a necessary assumption as mentioned in section 2.2.3.…”

Section: Data and Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

A regional and nonstationary model for partial duration series of extreme rainfall

Gregersen

Madsen

Rosbjerg

et al. 2017

Water Resources Research

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Regional extreme value models for estimation of extreme rainfall intensities are widely applied, but their underlying assumption of stationarity is challenged. Many recent studies show that the rainfall extremes worldwide exhibit a nonstationary behavior. This paper presents a spatiotemporal model of extreme rainfall. The framework is built on a partial duration series approach with a nonstationary, regional threshold value. The model is based on generalized linear regression solved by generalized estimation equations. It allows a spatial correlation between the stations in the network and accounts furthermore for variable observation periods at each station and in each year. Marginal regional and temporal regression models solved by generalized least squares are used to validate and discuss the results of the full spatiotemporal model. The model is applied on data from a large Danish rain gauge network for four durations ranging from 10 min to 24 h. The observation period differs between stations, and the number of stations with more than 10 years of observations has increased over the years. A spatiotemporal model for the threshold is suggested, applying the mean annual precipitation and time as the explanatory variables in the regional and temporal domain, respectively. Further analysis of partial duration series with nonstationary and regional thresholds shows that the mean exceedances also exhibit a significant variation in space and time for some rainfall durations, while the shape parameter is found to be constant.

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“…Secondly, we examine the relationship between LCTs and high precipitation/sea-water level events in the context of their simultaneous occurrence. Concurrent occurrences of precipitation and sea-water level events are often ignored in flood risk studies, perhaps because they most frequently occur in different seasons (Pedersen et al, 2012). When such simultaneous events do occur, flood damage may be notably larger than otherwise.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Explanatory analysis of the relationship between atmospheric circulation and occurrence of flood-generating events in a coastal city

et al. 2016

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The aim of this study is to enhance the understanding of the occurrence of flood‐generating events in urban areas by analysing the relationship between large‐scale atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation events, extreme sea water level events and their simultaneous occurrence, respectively. To describe the atmospheric circulation, we used the Lamb circulation type (LCT) classification and re‐grouped it into Lamb circulation classes (LCC). The daily LCCs/LCTs were connected with rare precipitation and water‐level events in Aarhus, a Danish coastal city. Westerly and cyclonic LCCs (W, C, SW and NW) showed a significantly high occurrence of extreme precipitation. Similarly, for extreme water‐level events westerly LCCs (W and SW) showed a significantly high occurrence. Significantly low occurrence of extreme precipitation and water‐level events was obtained in easterly LCCs (NE, E and SE). For concurrent events, significantly high occurrence was obtained in LCC W. We assessed the change in LCC occurrence frequency in the future based on two regional climate models (RCMs). The projections indicate that the westerly directions in LCCs are expected to increase in the future. Consequently, simultaneous occurrence of extreme water level and precipitation events is expected to increase in the future as a result of change in LCC frequencies. The RCM projections for LCC frequencies are uncertain because the representation of current LCCs is poor; a large number of days cannot be classified and the frequencies of the days that can be classified differ from the observed time series. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Climate change‐induced impacts on urban flood risk influenced by concurrent hazards

Cited by 22 publications

References 27 publications

On the impact of urbanization on flood hydrology of small ungauged basins: the case study of the Tiber river tributary network within the city of Rome

On the impact of urbanization on flood hydrology of small ungauged basins: the case study of the Tiber river tributary network within the city of Rome

A regional and nonstationary model for partial duration series of extreme rainfall

Explanatory analysis of the relationship between atmospheric circulation and occurrence of flood-generating events in a coastal city

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