Climate change, land use change, and China’s food security in the twenty-first century: an integrated perspective

Abstract

Food security in China, the world's most populous country, has long been a concern because of the challenges of population growth, water shortages, and loss of cropland through urbanization, soil degradation, and climate change. Here, we present an integrated analysis of China's food demand and supply under IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1, A2, B1, and B2 in 2020, 2050, and 2080, based on official statistics and future development scenarios. Our analysis accounts for future socioeconomic, technological, and resource developments, as well the impact of climate change. We present a covariant relationship between changes in cereal productivity due to climate change and the cereal harvest area required to satisfy China's food demand. We also estimated the effects of changing harvested areas on the productivity required to satisfy the food demand; of productivity changes due to climate change on the harvest area required to satisfy food demand; and of productivity and land use changes on the population at risk of undernutrition. China could be able to feed herself without disturbing the global food market in the twenty-first century, but whether the government will choose self-sufficiency or increased food imports may depend on the cost of change, which remains unknown.

Dangerous levels of climate change for agricultural production in China

“…The results showed that the region between Generally, while projected climate change could bring some potentially improved conditions for Chinese agriculture, it could also bring some critical adverse changes in water resources, which would affect the overall outcome. At this stage, while we have identified certain risks and established the general shape of the damage curve expressed as a function of GMT (see also Tao et al 2008a;Tao and Zhang 2010), more work is needed to identify specific changes which could be dangerous for food security in China (see also Tao et al 2009). Therefore, there is a need for the development of more integrated assessment models, which include social-economic, agricultural production, and food trade modules, to help identify thresholds for impacts in further studies.…”

“…In principal, a dangerous climate change level could be identified when climatically induced fluctuations in agricultural productivity, which could be causally linked to steadily decreasing water resources, perhaps exacerbated by a decline in cultivated lands, lead to insufficient food production to meet the food demand of an increasing population. Tao et al (2009) presented an integrated analysis of China's food demand and supply under IPCC SRES Scenarios A1, A2, B1, and B2 in 2020, 2050, and 2080, based on official statistics and future development scenarios. The analysis accounts for future socioeconomic, technological, and resource developments, as well the impact of climate change.…”

Assessing ways to combat eutrophication in a Chinese drinking water reservoir using SWAT

“…SC3 and SC7), which implicitly represent the effects of an increase in animal production, focus should, however, also be directed at non-point sources related to agricultural land use to ensure high-intensity food production with low environmental impact. This is highly relevant considering the expected increase in population growth and living standards, the global shifts in markets prices (Chen et al 2008;Khan et al 2009) and climate change (Tao et al 2009). (Table 6) and point source contributions with changing total point source loading (POINT) and nutrient reductions through fish ponds (REDUC).…”

Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions, climate change and limits to warming

“…In common with many other studies of this region, this work shows the importance of the strength of the CO 2 fertilization effect, which remains uncertain. Most studies show little adverse effects in China's food production if CO 2 fertilization works as projected, but significant reductions if not (Xiong et al 2007a, b;Yao et al 2007;Tao et al 2009;Tao and Zhang in press).…”