Climate change simulation and impacts on extreme events of rainfall and storm water in the Zayandeh Rud Catchment

Abstract

Nowadays, one of the most significant problems is that to recognize how the severity of heavy precipitation and floods may alter in future time in comparison with the current period. The purpose of this research is to understand the impact of future climate change on storm water and probability of maximum flood for future time period. Zayandeh rud river basin in Iran is selected as a case study. Forecast of future climatic parameters based on temperature and precipitation of the upcoming period (2006-2040) is completed with using the HadCM3 model and based on RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 emission patterns. Also, climate change model is downscaled statistically with applying LARS-WG. In the next step, the probable of maximum precipitation is measured through synoptic method and then, in order to model maximum storm water under the climate change effects, the HEC-HMS for simulating rainfall-runoff model is used. Also, the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) is applied to model snow melting. The results of this research indicate the maximum of probable precipitation in the basin for the period of 2006-2040 under the scenario RCP 2.6, can rise by 5% and by the scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 can decrease by 5% and 10%, respectively in comparison with the current period 1970-2005.

Investigation of water quality in wet and dry seasons under climate change

“…A decreasing trend in total phosphorus concentrations in winter throughout two decades (1990-19980) was discovered through Zhang et al in a shallow reservoir in China, which could be assigned to a rise in grazer abundance. Decreased ice cover period and ice thickness as presented in the study of Javadinejad et al [43] because of act favorably towards phytoplankton growth as a result of better light conditions in winter. Dissolved oxygen concentrations also anticipated in their study to decline in all months, except in January when DO concentrations were predicted to rise a little.…”

“…Dissolved oxygen concentrations also anticipated in their study to decline in all months, except in January when DO concentrations were predicted to rise a little. Javadinejad et al [43] also predicted a decrease in DO concentrations in the River Thames by the 2080 as a result of decreased saturation concentrations of DO and augmented biological oxygen request. In contradiction of rivers, some climate alteration studies on the water quality of lakes represent that greater water temperatures and rises in oxygen request encourage the release of nutrients from sediments subsequent in more nutrient enrichment of the water column.…”

Runoff coefficient estimation for various catchment surfaces

“…There is no physical basis in many hydrograph separations. Javadinejad et al [34] mentioned that just a small number of graphical and filter methods performed with a physical basis and only throughout stream flow recession.…”

Difference of rainfall-runoff models and effect on flood forecasting: A brief review

“…However, these reviews only narrowly focused on one specific model/ algorithm to analyze aspects of flood forecasting. Also previous studies did not compare various models for flood forecasting [40][41][42][43][44]. So, the objective of this chapter is therefore to provide a current, concise, and comprehensive review of flood forecasting practices by using rainfall-runoff models.…”