Climate change vulnerability assessment of species

Abstract

Assessing species' vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to conserve them. The last three decades have seen exponential growth in the number of studies evaluating how, how much, why, when, and where species will be impacted by climate change. We provide an overview of the rapidly developing field of climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) and describe key concepts, terms, steps and considerations. We stress the importance of identifying the full range of pressures, impacts and their associated mechanisms that species face and using this as a basis for selecting the appropriate assessment approaches for quantifying vulnerability. We outline four CCVA assessment approaches, namely trait-based, correlative, mechanistic and combined approaches and discuss their use. Since any assessment can deliver unreliable or even misleading results when incorrect data and parameters are applied, we discuss finding, selecting, and applying input data and provide examples of open-access resources. Because rare, small-range, and declining-range species are often of particular conservation concern while also posing significant challenges for CCVA, we describe alternative ways to assess them. We also describe how CCVAs can be used to inform IUCN Red List assessments of extinction risk. Finally, we suggest future directions in this field and propose areas where research efforts may be particularly valuable.

Drought vulnerability among China's ungulates and mitigation offered by protected areas

“…Following the IUCN‐SSC Guidelines for Assessing Species Vulnerability to Climate Change (Foden & Young, ), we adopted a trait‐based approach to assess drought vulnerability of ungulates distributed in China. Trait‐based vulnerability assessment is valuable for exploring species' sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate change (Foden et al, ) and has been effectively used to prioritize species at risk (Ameca, Mace, Cowlishaw, & Pettorelli, ; Böhm et al, ; Zhang et al, ). We collected information on exposure and species biological traits associated with intrinsic vulnerability, referring to species ability to withstand (sensitivity) or adjust to drought impacts (adaptive capacity), to assess the risk of ungulate taxa being negatively affected by droughts that already took place.…”

Points of view matter when assessing biodiversity vulnerability to environmental changes

“…Assessing the vulnerability of populations, species, communities or ecosystems, although conceptually simple, is riddled with practical and conceptual complexities regarding how to measure the different aspects embedded in the vulnerability concept (Dawson, Jackson, House, Prentice, & Mace, 2011; Foden et al, 2019). Managing the complexities of measuring and linking measures of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity could be achieved by framing their assessment within a well‐defined vulnerability paradigm which describes the response mechanism of the biological entity of interest (Figure 1).…”

Assessing the relative importance of temperature, discharge, and day length on the reproduction of an anadromous fish (Alosa alosa)

“…These stressful conditions may occur during the spawning season due to global warming by causing early snow melt and early cold water flooding during the spawning season in snow-fed rivers (Blöschl et al, 2017). The impact of global warming on reproduction will depend on the magnitudes of these environmental changes in the freshwater habitat and on the ability of shads to adapt to them (Foden et al, 2019). As the cumulative influence of environmental factors disrupted by global warming is greater than those that are undisturbed, spawners could follow optimal freshwater conditions with spatial and temporal shifts (McQueen & Marshall, 2017;Nack, Swaney, & Limburg, 2019;Quinn & Adams, 1996;Wedekind & Küng, 2010).…”

“…Assessing the vulnerability of anadromous species is a prerequisite for determining whether global warming will exacerbate the decline of anadromous fishes (Foden et al, 2019). Vulnerability is defined by a complex combination of species sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and the magnitude of human actions (Foden et al, 2019;IPCC, 2007).…”

“…Assessing the vulnerability of anadromous species is a prerequisite for determining whether global warming will exacerbate the decline of anadromous fishes (Foden et al, 2019). Vulnerability is defined by a complex combination of species sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and the magnitude of human actions (Foden et al, 2019;IPCC, 2007). Species sensitivity is defined as the degree to which the species is affected by climate variability (Foden et al, 2019;IPCC, 2007) and this sensitivity could be explored by the species' preference to environmental factors during a key life event, such as reproduction.…”