Climate-proofing a malaria eradication strategy

Abstract

Two recent initiatives, the World Health Organization (WHO) Strategic Advisory Group on Malaria Eradication and the Lancet Commission on Malaria Eradication, have assessed the feasibility of achieving global malaria eradication and proposed strategies to achieve it. Both reports rely on a climate-driven model of malaria transmission to conclude that long-term trends in climate will assist eradication efforts overall and, consequently, neither prioritize strategies to manage the effects of climate variability and change on malaria programming. This review discusses the pathways via which climate affects malaria and reviews the suitability of climate-driven models of malaria transmission to inform long-term strategies such as an eradication programme. Climate can influence malaria directly, through transmission dynamics, or indirectly, through myriad pathways including the many socioeconomic factors that underpin malaria risk. These indirect effects are largely unpredictable and so are not included in climate-driven disease models. Such models have been effective at predicting transmission from weeks to months ahead. However, due to several well-documented limitations, climate projections cannot accurately predict the medium- or long-term effects of climate change on malaria, especially on local scales. Long-term climate trends are shifting disease patterns, but climate shocks (extreme weather and climate events) and variability from sub-seasonal to decadal timeframes have a much greater influence than trends and are also more easily integrated into control programmes. In light of these conclusions, a pragmatic approach is proposed to assessing and managing the effects of climate variability and change on long-term malaria risk and on programmes to control, eliminate and ultimately eradicate the disease. A range of practical measures are proposed to climate-proof a malaria eradication strategy, which can be implemented today and will ensure that climate variability and change do not derail progress towards eradication.

Potential future malaria transmission in Odisha due to climate change

“…In this context, few studies suggest that climate change has a major impact on changes in vector borne diseases, specifically, changes on malaria transmission in different parts of the world 24 , 25 , Sarkar et al 26 , 27 . Climate change has a direct influence on malaria transmission and an increase in the temperature and rainfall is more conducive for the breeding of mosquito and cause the increase in frequency and intensity of the malaria diseases 28 – 31 .…”

Climate Change and Nutrition: Implications for the Eastern Mediterranean Region

“…Similarly, climate variations favoring higher temperatures may exacerbate vector-transmitted diseases such as malaria and other parasites, as these are expected to proliferate better with higher temperatures [ 167 , 168 , 169 ]. A recent review examining climate change in relation to malaria indicated that, while considerable evidence shows that warmer conditions tend to facilitate malaria transmission, the relationship between rainfall and malaria may be nonlinear [ 170 ]. For instance, while the time between rainfall episodes can foster the rapid growth of mosquito populations, longer spacing between rainfall episodes can restrict the growth rate of mosquito populations.…”

Correction to: Climate-proofing a malaria eradication strategy

“…1186/ s12936-021-03718-x. *Correspondence: h.nissan@lse.ac.uk 1 Grantham Research Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK Full list of author information is available at the end of the article…”

“…Following publication of the original article [1], it was brought to our attention that the entries under the section 'Practical recommendations' had not been numbered, when they should have been numbered as follows:…”