Climate Sensitivity Runs and Regional Hydrologic Modeling for Predicting the Response of the Greater Florida Everglades Ecosystem to Climate Change

Abstract

It is important to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida and to determine the resilience and robustness of greater Everglades restoration plans under future climate change. The current climate models, at both global and regional scales, are not ready to deliver specific climatic datasets for water resources investigations involving future plans and therefore a scenario based approach was adopted for this first study in restoration planning. We focused on the general implications of potential changes in future temperature and associated changes in evapotranspiration, precipitation, and sea levels at the regional boundary. From these, we developed a set of six climate and sea level scenarios, used them to simulate the hydrologic response of the greater Everglades region including agricultural, urban, and natural areas, and compared the results to those from a base run of current conditions. The scenarios included a 1.5 °C increase in temperature, ±10 % change in precipitation, and a 0.46 m (1.5 feet) increase in sea level for the 50-year planning horizon. The results suggested that, depending on the rainfall and temperature scenario, there would be significant changes in water budgets, ecosystem performance, and in water supply demands met. The increased sea level scenarios also show that the ground water levels would increase significantly with associated implications for flood protection in the urbanized areas of southeastern Florida.

Short-Term Dissolved Organic Carbon Dynamics Reflect Tidal, Water Management, and Precipitation Patterns in a Subtropical Estuary

“…However, whereas water management inflows dramatically shifted estuarine hydrology from negative to positive discharge, rainfall did not. The importance of water management to maintain seasonal freshwater delivery has been well-established for this region (Sklar et al, 2005;Obeysekera et al, 2014). High-frequency measurements presented here indicate that, particularly during periods of below-average freshwater flow (e.g., drought), water management inputs are capable of rapidly altering salinity and associated water quality gradients in the coastal Everglades.…”

Climate Change Projected Effects on Coastal Foundation Communities of the Greater Everglades Using a 2060 Scenario: Need for a New Management Paradigm

“…This 2060 scenario was developed as part of a workshop to project potential changes in the Greater Everglades Ecosystem and implications for planning, including Everglades restoration initiatives. These scenarios (Obeysekera et al 2014) are based on extensive regional modeling and planning efforts using a 50-year horizon (South Florida Water Management District 2009;Obeysekera et al 2011a, b;SFRCC 2011). Climate change planning in South Florida is an ongoing effort, as the region is highly vulnerable to changes in water supply and sea level rise given its underlying porous carbonate geology and shallow elevation gradient.…”

Climate Change Impacts on Florida’s Fisheries and Aquaculture Sectors and Options for Adaptation

“…• Temperature increases (Carter et al 2014) • Moderate increases in average rainfall and increases in variability (Carter et al 2014;Moser et al 2014) • Altered hydrology with an increase in average and variability of river flows, lake water levels, groundwater recharge, and freshwater outflow into coastal systems (Georgakakos et al 2014;Obeysekera et al 2015) • Changes in large-and meso-scale circulation features in the Gulf of Mexico • Changes in ocean stratification (Doney et al 2014) • Changes in the frequency and intensity of harmful algal blooms (Moore et al 2008) • Greater frequency and severity of storms (Carter 2014) • Sea level rise; Florida is highly vulnerable and this is perhaps the single most important driver of climate change impacts in the state (Carter et al 2014) • Salt water intrusion (FWC 2009;Barlow & Reichard 2010) • Ocean acidification , although higher latitudes tend to face a greater challenge (Ekstrom et al 2015) • Changes in coastal and riparian geomorphology (Glick 2006;FWC 2008;Moser et al 2014) • Changes in infrastructure (e.g. boat ramps, docks, roads; Moser et al 2014) • Mitigation policies (e.g., a carbon tax on fuel or carbon credits for sequestration in shellfish farming) …”