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Quantifying hydrologic and ecological connectivity has contributed to understanding transport and dispersal processes and assessing ecosystem degradation or restoration potential. However, there has been little synthesis across disciplines. The growing field of ecohydrology and recent recognition that loss of hydrologic connectivity is leading to a global decline in biodiversity underscore the need for a unified connectivity concept. One outstanding need is a way to quantify directional connectivity that is consistent, robust to variations in sampling, and transferable across scales or environmental settings. Understanding connectivity in a particular direction (e.g., streamwise, along or across gradient, between sources and sinks, along cardinal directions) provides critical information for predicting contaminant transport, planning conservation corridor design, and understanding how landscapes or hydroscapes respond to directional forces like wind or water flow. Here we synthesize progress on quantifying connectivity and develop a new strategy for evaluating directional connectivity that benefits from use of graph theory in ecology and percolation theory in hydrology. The directional connectivity index (DCI) is a graph-theory based, multiscale metric that is generalizable to a range of different structural and functional connectivity applications. It exhibits minimal sensitivity to image rotation or resolution within a given range and responds intuitively to progressive, unidirectional change. Further, it is linearly related to the integral connectivity scale length--a metric common in hydrology that correlates well with actual fluxes--but is less computationally challenging and more readily comparable across different landscapes. Connectivity-orientation curves (i.e., directional connectivity computed over a range of headings) provide a quantitative, information-dense representation of environmental structure that can be used for comparison or detection of subtle differences in the physical-biological feedbacks driving pattern formation. Case-study application of the DCI to the Everglades in south Florida revealed that loss of directional hydrologic connectivity occurs more rapidly and is a more sensitive indicator of declining ecosystem function than other metrics (e.g., habitat area) used previously. Here and elsewhere, directional connectivity can provide insight into landscape drivers and processes, act as an early-warning indicator of environmental degradation, and serve as a planning tool or performance measure for conservation and restoration efforts.

More than half of the original Everglades extent formed a patterned

It is important to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida and to determine the resilience and robustness of greater Everglades restoration plans under future climate change. The current climate models, at both global and regional scales, are not ready to deliver specific climatic datasets for water resources investigations involving future plans and therefore a scenario based approach was adopted for this first study in restoration planning. We focused on the general implications of potential changes in future temperature and associated changes in evapotranspiration, precipitation, and sea levels at the regional boundary. From these, we developed a set of six climate and sea level scenarios, used them to simulate the hydrologic response of the greater Everglades region including agricultural, urban, and natural areas, and compared the results to those from a base run of current conditions. The scenarios included a 1.5 °C increase in temperature, ±10 % change in precipitation, and a 0.46 m (1.5 feet) increase in sea level for the 50-year planning horizon. The results suggested that, depending on the rainfall and temperature scenario, there would be significant changes in water budgets, ecosystem performance, and in water supply demands met. The increased sea level scenarios also show that the ground water levels would increase significantly with associated implications for flood protection in the urbanized areas of southeastern Florida.

The Everglades of south Florida is a patterned peatland that has undergone major hydrologic modification over the last century, including both drainage and impoundment. The Everglades ridge and slough patterns were originally characterized by regularly spaced elevated ridges and tree islands oriented parallel to water flow through interconnected sloughs. Many areas of the remaining Everglades have lost this patterning over time. Historical aerial photography for the years 1940, 1953, 1972, 1984, and 2004 provides source data to measure these changes over six decades. Maps were created by digitizing the ridges, tree islands, and sloughs in fifteen 24 km 2 study plots located in the remaining Everglades, and metrics were developed to quantify the extent and types of changes in the patterns. Pattern metrics of length/width ratios, number of ridges, and perimeter/ area ratios were used to define the details and trajectories of pattern changes in the study plots from 1940 through 2004. These metrics characterized elongation, smoothness, and abundance of ridges and tree islands. Hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis was used to categorize these 75 maps (15 plots by 5 years) into five categories based on a suite of metrics of pattern quality. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling, an ordination technique, confirmed that these categories were distinct with the primary axis distinguished primarily by the abundance of elongated ridges in each study plot. Strong patterns like those described historically were characterized by numerous, long ridges while degraded patterns contained few large, irregularly shaped patches. Pattern degradation usually occurred with ridges fusing into fewer, less linear patches of emergent vegetation. Patterning improved in some plots, probably through wetter conditions facilitating expression of the underlying microtopography. Trajectories showing responses of individual study plots over the six decades indicated that ridge and slough patterns can degrade or improve over time scales of a decade or less. Changes in ridge and slough patterns indicate that (1) patterns can be lost quickly following severe peat dryout, yet (2) patterns appear resilient at least over multi-decadal time periods; (3) patterns can be maintained and possibly strengthened with deeper water depths, and (4) the sub-decadal response time of pattern changes visible in aerial imagery is highly useful for change detection within the landscape. This analysis suggests that restoration of some aspects of these unique peatland patterns may be possible within relatively short planning time frames. Use of aerial photography in future Everglades restoration efforts can facilitate restoration and adaptive management by documenting sub-decadal pattern changes in response to altered hydrology and water management.