Climate‐tectonic coupling: Variations in the mean, variations about the mean, and variations in mode

Lenardic, A.; Jellinek, M.; Foley, Bradford J.; O’Neill, Craig; Moore, W. B.

doi:10.1002/2016je005089

Cited by 49 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 199 publications

(340 reference statements)

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“…The early Earth may have been in a stagnant lid regime (Debaille et al 2013). Changes in the tectonic mode may be caused by changes of the surface temperature (Gillmann & Tackley 2014), which would establish a feedback to the climate (Lenardic et al 2016). We did not account for temporal changes in the tectonic mode and applied simple parameterized thermal evolution models for both tectonic regimes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon cycling and interior evolution of water-covered plate tectonics and stagnant-lid planets

Höning

Tosi

Spohn

2019

A&A

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Aims. The long-term carbon cycle for planets with a surface entirely covered by oceans works differently from that of the present-day Earth because inefficient erosion leads to a strong dependence of the weathering rate on the rate of volcanism. In this paper, we investigate the long-term carbon cycle for these planets throughout their evolution. Methods. We built box models of the long-term carbon cycle based on CO 2 degassing, seafloor-weathering, metamorphic decarbonation, and ingassing and coupled them with thermal evolution models of stagnant lid and plate tectonics planets. Results. The assumed relationship between the seafloor-weathering rate and the atmospheric CO 2 or the surface temperature strongly influences the climate evolution for both tectonic regimes. For a plate tectonics planet, the atmospheric CO 2 partial pressure is characterized by an equilibrium between ingassing and degassing and depends on the temperature gradient in subduction zones affecting the stability of carbonates. For a stagnant lid planet, partial melting and degassing are always accompanied by decarbonation, such that the combined carbon content of the crust and atmosphere increases with time. Whereas the initial mantle temperature for plate tectonics planets only affects the early evolution, it influences the evolution of the surface temperature of stagnant lid planets for much longer. Conclusions. For both tectonic regimes, mantle cooling results in a decreasing atmospheric CO 2 partial pressure. For a plate tectonics planet this is caused by an increasing fraction of subduction zones that avoid crustal decarbonation, and for stagnant lid planets this is caused by an increasing decarbonation depth. This mechanism may partly compensate for the increase of the surface temperature due to increasing solar luminosity with time and hereby contribute to keep planets habitable in the long-term.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon cycling and interior evolution of water-covered plate tectonics and stagnant-lid planets

Höning

Tosi

Spohn

2019

A&A

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“…These models are efficient for traversing vast regions of parameter space (McNamara & Van Keken, ). They also allow layers of complexity to be added to base level models in relatively simple and efficient ways, for example, deep water cycling (McGovern & Schubert, ; Sandu et al, ), planetary carbon cycling (Abbot et al, ; Franck & Bounama, ; Tajika & Matsui, , ; Sleep & Zahnle, ; Sleep et al, ), coupled thermal evolution, and climate modeling (Foley, ; Foley & Driscoll, ; Jellinek & Jackson, ; Lenardic et al, ). They can also be scaled to different planetary mass and/or volume in ways that maintain model efficiency (Valencia et al, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Intrinsic Uncertainty and Structural Stability of Planetary Models: 1. Parameterized Thermal‐Tectonic History Models

2019

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Thermal history models, historically used to understand Earth's geologic history, are being coupled to climate models to map conditions that allow planets to maintain life. However, the lack of structural uncertainty assessment has blurred guidelines for how thermal history models can be used toward this end. Structural uncertainty is intrinsic to the modeling process. Model structure refers to the cause and effect relations that define a model and are assumed to adequately represent a particular real world system. Intrinsic/structural uncertainty is different from input and parameter uncertainties (which are often evaluated for thermal history models). A full uncertainty assessment requires that input/parametric and intrinsic/structural uncertainty be evaluated (one is not a substitute for the other). We quantify the intrinsic uncertainty for several parameterized thermal history models (a subclass of planetary models). We use single perturbation analysis to determine the reactance time of different models. This provides a metric for how long it takes low‐amplitude, unmodeled effects to decay or grow. Reactance time is shown to scale inversely with the strength of the dominant model feedback (negative or positive). A perturbed physics analysis is then used to determine uncertainty shadows for model outputs. This provides probability distributions for model predictions. It also tests the structural stability of a model (do model predictions remain qualitatively similar, and within assumed model limits, in the face of intrinsic uncertainty?). Once intrinsic uncertainty is accounted for, model outputs/predictions and comparisons to observational data should be treated in a probabilistic way.

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“…Finally, plate tectonics also promotes long-lived CO 2 degassing by driving volcanism at mid-ocean ridges and island arcs, and by recycling surface CO 2 into the mantle such that the mantle CO 2 reservoir is continuously resupplied. However, whether plate tectonics is required for the longterm carbon cycle to operate, and therefore stabilize a planet's climate, is not known (Foley & Driscoll, 2016;Lenardic et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon Cycling and Habitability of Earth-Sized Stagnant Lid Planets

2018

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Models of thermal evolution, crustal production, and CO cycling are used to constrain the prospects for habitability of rocky planets, with Earth-like size and composition, in the stagnant lid regime. Specifically, we determine the conditions under which such planets can maintain rates of CO degassing large enough to prevent global surface glaciation but small enough so as not to exceed the upper limit on weathering rates provided by the supply of fresh rock, a situation which would lead to runaway atmospheric CO accumulation and an inhospitably hot climate. The models show that stagnant lid planets with initial radiogenic heating rates of 100-250 TW, and with total CO budgets ranging from ∼10 to 1 times Earth's estimated CO budget, can maintain volcanic outgassing rates suitable for habitability for ≈1-5 Gyr; larger CO budgets result in uninhabitably hot climates, while smaller budgets result in global glaciation. High radiogenic heat production rates favor habitability by sustaining volcanism and CO outgassing longer. Thus, the results suggest that plate tectonics may not be required for establishing a long-term carbon cycle and maintaining a stable, habitable climate. The model is necessarily highly simplified, as the uncertainties with exoplanet thermal evolution and outgassing are large. Nevertheless, the results provide some first-order guidance for future exoplanet missions, by predicting the age at which habitability becomes unlikely for a stagnant lid planet as a function of initial radiogenic heat budget. This prediction is powerful because both planet heat budget and age can potentially be constrained from stellar observations. Key Words: Exoplanets-Habitability-Stagnant lid tectonics-Carbon cycle-Volcanism. Astrobiology 18, 873-896.

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Climate‐tectonic coupling: Variations in the mean, variations about the mean, and variations in mode

Cited by 49 publications

References 199 publications

Carbon cycling and interior evolution of water-covered plate tectonics and stagnant-lid planets

Carbon cycling and interior evolution of water-covered plate tectonics and stagnant-lid planets

Assessing the Intrinsic Uncertainty and Structural Stability of Planetary Models: 1. Parameterized Thermal‐Tectonic History Models

Carbon Cycling and Habitability of Earth-Sized Stagnant Lid Planets

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