Climatic change is advancing the phenology of moth species in Ireland

Abstract

Recent increases in global temperatures have contributed to advancing phenology of plants and animals. These increases in temperature have been shown to affect the phenological phases (phenophases) of plants and birds in Ireland, but less is known about the effect on the phenophases of Irish insects. Records of the flight periods of 59 species of Irish moths over the past 35 years (1974–2009) were obtained from a public monitoring group. Observations were analysed across the country using generalized additive models (GAMs) weighted by total yearly population numbers for each species. The results of the statistical analyses showed that 45 of the 59 species studied have a significantly earlier first sighting date now than when observations began. With this earlier emergence, 44 of the 59 species also have a significantly longer flight season over the same 35‐year period. The extent of these changes varies across the country and by species life history. In particular, species emerging in spring are advancing at a much faster rate than species emerging during the summer. Many of these changes in first sighting are negatively correlated with rising temperatures in Ireland, particularly in late spring and early summer (May and June). The variation in phenological advancement in the moth species of Ireland is extremely complex and may be influenced more by species life history than by the phenology of interacting species, such as host plants.

The mechanisms of phenology: the patterns and processes of phenological shifts

“…The time that a species reaches a developmental stage relative to others in the same taxonomic group (e.g., early vs. late flowering) is predicted to explain variation in phenological shift (e.g., early vs. late species). Many studies among diverse taxonomic groups including fungi (Kauserud et al 2008), insects (Hassall et al 2007, Diamond et al 2011, O'Neill et al 2012, Karlsson 2014, and plants (Price and Waser 1998, Abu-Asab et al 2001, Fitter and Fitter 2002, Dunne et al 2003, Menzel et al 2006b, Sherry et al 2007, Miller-Rushing and Primack 2008, Miller-Rushing and Inouye 2009, Morin et al 2009, Wolkovich et al 2012, Iler et al 2013, Mazer et al 2013, Cara-Donna et al 2014 show that species that complete a developmental stage earlier in the year exhibit larger phenological shifts than late species in the same community. However, a few studies report that late-season (insects; Altermatt 2010, Nufio et al 2010 or mid-season species shift phenology more than early season species (plants; Sherry et al 2007, Whittington et al 2015.…”

Statistical indicators for insects caught in the development trap

“…Phenological responses of insects to climate change have been the focus of many studies (O'Connor, Selig, Pinsky, & Altermatt, 2012). Typically, these have investigated changes in emergence date (Altermatt, 2010a(Altermatt, , 2012Karlsson, 2014;O'Neill et al, 2012;Roy & Sparks, 2000;Westgarth-Smith, Roy, Scholz, Tucker, & Sumpter, 2012), synchronization with resources (Altermatt, 2010b;Forrest & Thompson, 2011;Hegland, Nielsen, Lazaro, Bjerkness, & Totland, 2009;Van Asch & Visser, 2007;Visser & Holleman, 2001) and geographic range (Asher, Fox, & Warren, 2011;Menendez et al, 2007;Williams & Liebhold, 2002).…”

Bayesian space–time model to analyse frost risk for agriculture in Southeast Australia

“…In this article, Bayesian space–time modelling is used to obtain predictive spatial distribution information of frost occurrence across northern Victoria and southern NSW. We assess the performance of this modelling approach against observational records as well as against linear and additive regression models (Hastie and Tibshirani, ; Wood, ) that are frequently used in modelling climatic variables and species distribution models (Ashcroft et al ., ; Dukic et al ., ; Kivinen et al ., ; O'Neill et al ., ; Tong et al ., ). This is undertaken in order to compare the predictive power of the three approaches and highlight the importance of spatial dependency.…”