Climatic marginality: a new metric for the susceptibility of tree species to warming exemplified by Fagus sylvatica (L.) and Ellenberg’s quotient

Mellert, Karl Heinz; Ewald, Jörg; Hornstein, Daniel; Dorado‐Liñán, Isabel; Jantsch, Matthias; Taeger, Steffen; Zang, Christian; Menzel, Annette; Kölling, Christian

doi:10.1007/s10342-015-0924-9

Cited by 34 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…Our results show that the modelled climatic marginality of beech at a plot site can reliably predict the abundance of mesic and thermophilic tree species (Mellert et al 2016). Marginality of beech can therefore be used as a surrogate for predicting the suitability of a tree species on a site.…”

Section: Species Composition Of Deciduous Forestsmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…The dashed lines indicate an optimal, an intermediate and a marginal position according to the CMI (Mellert et al 2015) or the intermediate range maximum according to the EQ (Mellert et al 2016) for the niche of Fagus sylvatica in Central Europe. The dotted lines show the regression lines for significant regressions with * p < 0.05 and *** p < 0.001. tree species composition.…”

Section: Species Composition Of Pine Forestsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is assumed that such spatially isolated populations persisted periods of climate change in the past, and are thus particularly important for the conservation of biodiversity in the future (Rose et al 2009, Hampe & Jump 2011. The rear edge populations situated at or near glacial refugia are supposed to be vital long-term pools of genetic diversity (Hampe & Petit 2005, Patricelli et al 2013) and can be regarded as references for the estimation of species and community susceptibility to climate change (Mellert et al 2016). Favoured presumably by increased CO 2 -concentration, continued nitrogen deposition and a longer vegetation period, rear edge beech populations in Albania and Macedonia showed a recent growth increase despite increasing temperature and drought (Tegel et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…; (ii) Are understorey and tree species linked and do they respond similarly to climatic gradients? ; (iii) Do the tree species in the survey occur in accordance with their modelled distribution and can it be predicted by climate indices such as the widely applied Ellenberg Quotient (EQ; Ellenberg 1963), the De Martonne aridity index, and the climatic marginality index, which estimates tree species' distance to the rear niche edge at a particular site (CMI; Mellert et al 2015Mellert et al , 2016?…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forest vegetation in western Romania in relation to climate variables: Does community composition reflect modelled tree species distribution?

et al. 2016

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Abstract. European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) is the prevailing tree species of mesic forests in Central Europe. Increasing summer temperatures and decreasing precipitation, as climate change scenarios predict, may, however, negatively influence beech growth and induce a shift to more thermophilous forest communities. Temperatures as expected in the future for western Central Europe are currently found in parts of western Romania. In light of this climate analogy we investigated forest vegetation as an indicator for future vegetation changes in five regions of western Romania representing a climatic gradient. We related species composition to climate variables and examined if tree and understorey species composition respond similarly to the climatic gradient. We further analysed if tree species occurrences correspond with their modelled distance to the rear niche edge. We found evidence for climatic effects on vegetation composition among regions as well as within deciduous and pine forests, respectively. This underlines that vegetation composition is a useful indicator for environmental change. Tree and understorey species compositions were closely linked showing that community-based characterization of forest stands can provide additional information on tree species suitability along environmental gradients. Both, vegetation composition and a climatic marginality index demonstrate the rear niche edge occurrence of beech in the studied sites of Romania and can predict the site suitability for different tree species. While vegetation surveys indicate Quercus petraea to be associated to moderately mesic forests, the marginality index suggested an inner niche position of sessile oak along the climatic gradient. Phytosociological relevés that differentiate between subspecies (or microspecies) of sessile oak with differing habitat requirements should be considered to complement national forest inventories and species distribution maps when modelling rear distribution edges. We conclude that climate driven forest vegetation composition in western Romania is a suitable analogon and may indicate future forest development in western Central Europe.

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Section: Species Composition Of Deciduous Forestsmentioning

confidence: 88%

Section: Species Composition Of Pine Forestsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forest vegetation in western Romania in relation to climate variables: Does community composition reflect modelled tree species distribution?

et al. 2016

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“…An example would be a study of the microclimate for European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), analyzing its scope and possible modeling of the border, eg. in southern central Europe (Mellert et al 2015). The collection of data and the values and distribution in the forest area of temperature, humidity, intensity of light that reaches the forest interior gives information whether the specified area will be possible to be effective, natural regeneration of trees and thanks measuring illumination will be possible to study how much light reaches the interior of the forest.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Conception of the Net Weather Station for Measuring the Microclimate of the Forest

Szymanski

Brach

Szymański

et al. 2017

Proccedings of 10th International Conference "Environmental Engineering"

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Abstract. The project of meteorological station is designed to monitor the state of the weather on the selected (forest areas) as well as the colleting the data to analyze the dynamic of the changes weather parameters. The main idea presented in this paper, base on assumption that single weather station can be used as a part of net. The simultaneous and continuous measurement of many parameters such as temperature, pressure, humidity and sunlight located at grid points could work out finaly the weather map combined with the digital terrain model. The modern electronic make possible flexible connecting indywidual stations in subsytems and exchange of huge amount of inforamtion leading to build base knowledge. In the first part of the article it is presented the conception of the information system. In the next part there are outlined the results of works with the prototype of the measure mode. Dedicated to applications in forestry prototype of device, can be used to measure temperature, pressure, humidity and sunlight. The additional features of the device are the possibility of writing data on micro SD card, supplemented with current time, day, and year. The design and research is a pilot, before the creation of a regular grid of sample plots with the use of many such devices. The objective is to gather accurate meteorological data from the interior of the forest-based geostatistical analysis, necessary for breeding purposes. Because of their design frames weather, it can be installed on most trees. Presented prototype of basic station used in the concept of measuring net, generates data from the sensors, which are strongly correlated with the compared professional station.

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Parapatric subspecies of Macaca assamensis show a marginal overlap in their predicted potential distribution: Some elaborations for modern conservation management

Suwal

Huettmann

Regmi³

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

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Phylogenetic niche conservatism implies that sister taxa will have similar niches, although the niches of disjunct subspecies may evolve differently. This study uses Macaca assamensis, subspecies assamensis and pelops, to investigate the similarities of realized climatic niches of two disjunct subspecies (separated by the Brahmaputra River) along with a similarity analysis of their respective regions’ climate. Modeled distributions were used to quantify their potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. The climatic similarity between regions of each subspecies was tested with principal component analysis (PCA), and the realized climatic niche overlap between two subspecies was tested with a multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) on a subset of the least correlated variables out of 24 publicly available topo‐bioclimatic variables. Tukey's honest significance difference (HSD) was used to test the range differences (on all 24 variables) between subspecies. The potential distribution of both taxa in the current climate and projected future climate was model‐predicted using MaxEnt and Random Forest. We found significantly different climatic ranges for 21 predictors (HSD; p < 0.05) for the two subspecies, significantly different climatic conditions for their regions (using PCA; p < 0.001), and significantly different realized climatic niches for the two subspecies (MANOVA; p < 0.001). The distribution models generated a larger potential area than the currently known distributions. Although literature show that the Brahmaputra River is an effective dispersal barrier, we found some of the neighboring geographic range for both subspecies appears to be potentially suitable for the other taxon. The projected future potential areas indicate that some parts of the currently occupied geography, mostly southern parts, may become climatically unsuitable, whereas other new geographical areas may become suitable. Most of these new potential areas will be toward the north where higher and fragmented mountains, which has conservation implications.

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Climatic marginality: a new metric for the susceptibility of tree species to warming exemplified by Fagus sylvatica (L.) and Ellenberg’s quotient

Cited by 34 publications

References 58 publications

Forest vegetation in western Romania in relation to climate variables: Does community composition reflect modelled tree species distribution?

Forest vegetation in western Romania in relation to climate variables: Does community composition reflect modelled tree species distribution?

The Conception of the Net Weather Station for Measuring the Microclimate of the Forest

Parapatric subspecies of Macaca assamensis show a marginal overlap in their predicted potential distribution: Some elaborations for modern conservation management

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