Climatological conditions of the Black Sea‐effect snowfall events in Istanbul, Turkey

Baltaci, Hakki; Silva, Maria Cristina Lemos da; Gomes, Heliofábio Barros

doi:10.1002/joc.6944

Cited by 14 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…This apparent inconsistency between the annual surface temperature regime and the annual PWV regime may be resolved if we consider the Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures (Med‐SST) as the main contributor to the annual PWV variations. Indeed, high SSTs together with low surface temperature increase the moisture convergence over land which can lead to extreme summer precipitation events (Volosciuk et al ., 2016) or even intense snow storms (Baltaci et al ., 2021). However, our discussion on the Med‐SST will focus on its summer peak time and its possible influence on the PWV annual mode as extracted by the harmonic analysis.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐term variability and trends of precipitable water vapour derived from GPS tropospheric path delays over the Eastern Mediterranean

Ziv

Alpert

Reuveni

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The precipitable water vapour (PWV) of 21 Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) ground receivers from the Survey Of Israel Active Permanent Network (SOI-APN) in the Eastern Mediterranean area are processed and analysed. We focus on the annual cycles, inter-annual variations and long-term trends. The PWV monthly mean values peak during September-October where October has the highest variability for all stations. PWV values reach minimum level during February-March where Apr is the least variable month for most stations. Generally, the PWV variability decreases with station height. Additionally, harmonic analysis indicates that the annual mode's amplitude decreases with station height. In contrast, the semi-annual mode's accounting for the sub-annual variance increases with station height. The PWV monthly mean anomalies are consistent among all the stations suggesting a common regional driver. Furthermore, a comparison between the PWV station average anomalies and the regional mean anomalies from the ERA5 reanalysis shows a strong correlation with r = 0.95. In addition, a correlation coefficient of r = 0.72 was found with the regional mean moisture flux anomalies at 750 hPa taken from ERA5 and the station average PWV anomalies, thus implying that horizontal moisture flow accounts for most of the inter-annual variability. However, the significance of the 750 hPa pressure level requires future investigation. For the long-term analysis, we find an increasing regional mean trend of 0.5 mm Á decade −1 for the entire data period (1997-2019) as compared to 1 mm Á decade −1 for the last decade (2010-2019) suggesting a recent accelerated moistening of the Eastern Mediterranean region.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐term variability and trends of precipitable water vapour derived from GPS tropospheric path delays over the Eastern Mediterranean

Ziv

Alpert

Reuveni

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…of snowfall in 1 or 2 days for distinguishing snowstorms. However, in warmer climates, >10 cm of daily snowfall is recognized as an intense snow event, as used in studies concerning sea‐effect snowfall in Istanbul (Baltaci et al ., 2021). In this study, cases with snowfall exceeding 20 cm in 2 days (i.e., 20 cm of snow depth increase during 2 days, addressed hereafter as “extreme snowfalls”) were studied in the context of sea‐effect snowfall.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Baltaci et al . (2021) investigated the climatological conditions of Black Sea‐effect snowfall events in Istanbul, and they recognized a relatively high sea surface temperature and cold temperature anomaly in the low troposphere as favourable conditions for the development of intense sea‐effect snowfall.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…West et al (2019) and Veals et al (2019) detected the influence of air-sea interactions, coastal geometry, and regional topography on cloud and precipitation patterns during sea-effect periods in the Sea of Japan region. Baltaci et al (2021) investigated the climatological conditions of Black Sea-effect snowfall events in Istanbul, and they recognized a relatively high sea surface temperature and cold temperature anomaly in the low troposphere as favourable conditions for the development of intense sea-effect snowfall.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Climatology and extreme cases of sea‐effect snowfall on the southern Baltic Sea coast

Bednorz

Czernecki

Tomczyk

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Heavy snowfall events of possible sea‐effect origin, occurring on the southern Baltic Sea coast, are described in this study. The analysed region is not very snowy, with an average of 40 days with snow cover in the winter season and a mean maximum snow depth of 8–12 cm. Twenty‐five snowfall events were selected using the threshold of 20 cm/2 days (i.e., 20 cm of snow depth increase during 2 days), and the synoptic climatology, as well as triggering factors of their occurrence, were defined. The bipolar pattern of sea level pressure with a high‐pressure over Scandinavia and a low‐pressure system southward of it was identified as favourable for sea‐effect snowfall on the southern Baltic Sea coast. This pressure field, causing northeastern circulation in the lower troposphere, brings cold air masses over the relatively warm sea basin, and the negative anomalies of air temperature at 850 hPa geopotential level, amounting to −9°C, encompass Scandinavia, as well as central and northeastern Europe. This makes the temperature difference between the air at the 850 hPa geopotential height and the sea surface exceeding 15°C. This large temperature difference establishes favourable conditions for convection in cold air masses, which become unstable while crossing over the warm sea. The formed clouds give snowfall in the coastal areas. In the further part of the study, three sea‐effect snowfall cases were chosen for detailed analysis, including atmospheric sounding, radar and satellite images, air parcel backward trajectories, and synoptic maps. They reveal high‐pressure wedges associated with low air temperature over Scandinavia and northern airflow over the Baltic Sea. The wind direction and the temperature of air masses are key components in the occurrence of sea‐effect snowfall, and global warming conditions seem to reduce the frequency of snow events over the Polish Baltic Sea coast.

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“…For the Great Lakes region, the typical threshold needed to produce lake-effect precipitation is a temperature difference greater than 13 C from the lake surface to a height of about 1.5 km above the lake surface (Holroyd, 1971). In other regions, it was found that lake-effect precipitation can occur at a slightly smaller air-water temperature difference in the Great Salt Lake located in the western United States (Alcott et al, 2012) while it can be larger in the Black Sea in northern Turkey (Baltaci et al, 2021). These temperature changes with height approximately reflect the rate at which a dry air parcel cools as it is lifted in the atmosphere, or the dry-adiabatic lapse rate.…”

Section: Basic Recipes and Morphologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting lake‐/sea‐effect snowstorms, advancement, and challenges

et al. 2022

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Lake-/sea-effect snow forms typically from late fall to winter when a cold air mass moves over the warmer, large water surface. The resulting intense snowfall has many societal impacts on communities living in downwind areas; hence, accurate forecasts of lake-/sea-effect snow are essential for safety and preparedness. Forecasting lake-/sea-effect snow is extremely challenging, but over the past decades the advancement of numerical forecast models and the expansion of observational networks have incrementally improved the forecasting capability. The recent advancement includes numerical forecast models with high spatiotemporal resolutions that allow simulating vigorous snowstorms at the kilometer-scale and the frequent inclusion of radar observations in the model. This combination of more accurate weather prediction models as well as ground-based and remotely sensed observations has aided operational forecasters to make better lake-/sea-effect snow forecasts. A remaining challenge is that many observations of precipitation, surface meteorology, evaporation, and heat supply from the water surface are still limited to being landbased and the information over the water, particularly offshore, remains a gap.This primer overviews the basic mechanisms for lake-/sea-effect snow formation, evolution of forecast techniques, and challenges to be addressed in the future.This article is categorized under: • Science of Water > Water Extremes • Science of Water > Water and Environmental Change • Science of Water > Methods K E Y W O R D S extreme weather, lake-effect snow, numerical model, sea-effect snow, weather forecast

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Climatological conditions of the Black Sea‐effect snowfall events in Istanbul, Turkey

Cited by 14 publications

References 59 publications

Long‐term variability and trends of precipitable water vapour derived from GPS tropospheric path delays over the Eastern Mediterranean

Long‐term variability and trends of precipitable water vapour derived from GPS tropospheric path delays over the Eastern Mediterranean

Climatology and extreme cases of sea‐effect snowfall on the southern Baltic Sea coast

Forecasting lake‐/sea‐effect snowstorms, advancement, and challenges

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