BACKGROUND:
Predicting aggressive Crohn’s disease is crucial for determining therapeutic strategies.
OBJECTIVE:
We aimed to develop a prognostic model to predict complications leading to surgery within 1 year after diagnosis of Crohn’s disease and to create a nomogram to facilitate clinical decision making.
DESIGN:
This is a retrospective study.
SETTING:
This study was conducted from January 2012 to December 2016 in a single tertiary IBD center.
PATIENTS:
Patients diagnosed with Crohn’s disease showing B1 behavior according to the Montreal classification were included.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:
We measured the occurrence of complications that would ultimately lead to surgery, including severe GI bleeding (Glasgow-Blatchford score ≥6), stenosis, and perforations, confirmed by endoscopy, CT scan, and/or interventional radiology.
RESULTS:
The mean follow-up period was 54 months (SD 13 months). Of the 614 eligible patients, 13.5% developed complications leading to surgery. Multivariable logistic regression revealed the independent predictors of early-onset complications to be age (adjusted odds ratio per 10-year increase in age = 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2–0.8;
p
= 0.004), disease duration (adjusted odds ratio = 2.7, 95% CI, 1.9–3.8;
p
< 0.001), perianal disease (adjusted odds ratio = 16.0; 95% CI, 4.3–59.9;
p
< 0.001), previous surgery (adjusted odds ratio = 3.7; 95% CI, 1.6–8.6;
p
= 0.003), and extraintestinal manifestations (adjusted odds ratio = 7.6; 95% CI, 2.3–24.9;
p
= 0.001). The specificity and sensitivity of the prognostic model were 88.3% (95% CI, 84.8%–91.2%) and 96.6% (95% CI, 88.1%–99.6%), and the area under the curve was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.95–0.98). This model was validated with good discrimination and excellent calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. A nomogram was created to facilitate clinical bedside practice.
LIMITATIONS:
This was a retrospective design and included a small sample size from 1 center.
CONCLUSIONS:
Our validated prognostic model effectively predicted early-onset complications leading to surgery and screened aggressive Crohn’s disease, which will enable physicians to customize therapeutic strategies and monitor disease. See
Video Abstract
at
http://links.lww.com/DCR/B442
.
Registered at Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR1900025751).
UN MODELO DE PRONÓSTICO VALIDADO Y UN NOMOGRAMA PARA PREDECIR COMPLICACIONES PRECOCES QUE REQUIRAN CIRUGÍA EN PACIENTES CON ENFERMEDAD DE CROHN
ANTECEDENTES:
Predecir una enfermedad de Crohn muy agresiva es fundamental para determinar la estrategia terapéutica.
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