CLUE-CR: An integrated multi-scale model to simulate land use change scenarios in Costa Rica

Veldkamp, A.; Fresco, L.O.

doi:10.1016/0304-3800(95)00158-1

Cited by 240 publications

(109 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…To estimate the uncertainty in extrapolations of spatially-explicit land-change simulation models, we use the CLUE-s model and a strategy of uncertain analysis proposed by Versluis et al [16][17][18][19]. The flow diagram in Figure 1 describes the process of estimating the uncertainty in predicted land change at some future time t n .…”

Section: Strategy For Uncertainty Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Accuracy assessments and uncertainty analysis of spatially explicit modeling for land use/cover change and urbanization: A case in Beijing metropolitan area

Zhang

Zhou

et al. 2009

Sci. China Earth Sci.

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Spatially explicit modeling plays a vital role in land use/cover change and urbanization research as well as resources management; however, current models lack proper validation and fail to incorporate uncertainty into the formulation of model predictions. Consequently, policy makers and the general public may develop opinions based on potentially misleading research, which fails to allow for truly informed decisions. Here we use an uncertainty strategy of spatially explicit modeling combined with the series statistic of Kappa index for location and quantity to estimate the uncertainty of future predications and to determine model accuracy. We take the Beijing metropolitan area as an example to demonstrate the uncertainty in extrapolations of predictive land use change and urban sprawl with spatially explicit modeling at multiple resolutions. The sensitivity of scale effects is also discussed. The results show that an improvement in specification of location is more helpful in increasing accuracy as compared to an improvement in the specification of quantity at fine spatial resolutions. However, the spatial scale has great effects on modeling accuracy and correct due to chance tends to increase as resolution becomes coarser. The results allow us to understand the uncertainty when using spatially explicit models for land-use change or urbanization estimates. Spatially explicit models have various applications in land resources management, urban planning, and metropolitan environmental protection, including the development of land cover or vegetation and predictive surface maps. However, the direct application of these models is meaningless without informed approaches to model development and the ability to assess the accuracy of model predictions.In the absence of incisive model development and error analysis, spatially explicit models may be applied in ways that confound, rather than illuminate, our understanding of land cover changes or urbanization processes [1]. In the past decades, spatially explicit models have received much attention by researchers. More recently, many land use models have been developed; cellular automata based model and

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Section: Strategy For Uncertainty Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Accuracy assessments and uncertainty analysis of spatially explicit modeling for land use/cover change and urbanization: A case in Beijing metropolitan area

Zhang

Zhou

et al. 2009

Sci. China Earth Sci.

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“…Prior to the implementation of legislation and schemes to protect forests at a national scale, land management was characterized by forest conversion from 67% primary rainforest cover in 1940 to 83% pasture and crops cover in 1983 (Sader and Joyce 1988). Since 1970, this trend has been slowed and since 1995 halted; it has even been reversed in some regions with increased reforestation (Veldkamp and Fresco 1996).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the impacts of land-cover change on streamflow dynamics of a tropical rainforest headwater catchment

Birkel

Soulsby

Tetzlaff

2012

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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A modelling experiment is used to examine different land-use scenarios ranging from extreme deforestation (31% forest cover) to pristine (95% forest cover) conditions and related Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) schemes to assess whether a change in streamflow dynamics, discharge extremes and mean annual water balance of a 73.4-km 2 tropical headwater catchment in Costa Rica could be detected. A semi-distributed, conceptual rainfall-runoff model was adapted to conceptualize the empirically-based, dominant hydrological processes of the study area and was multi-criteria calibrated using different objective functions and empirical constraints on model simulations in a Monte Carlo framework to account for parameter uncertainty. The results suggest that land-use change had relatively little effect on the overall mean annual water yield (<3%). However, streamflow dynamics proved to be sensitive in terms of frequency, timing and magnitude of discharge extremes. For low flows and peak discharges of return periods greater than one year, land use had a minor influence on the runoff response. Below these thresholds (<1-year return period), forest cover potentially decreased runoff peaks and low flows by as much as 10%, and non-forest cover increased runoff peaks and low flows by up to 15%. The study demonstrated the potential for using hydrological modelling to help identify the impact of protection and reforestation efforts on ecosystem services.Key words ecosystem services; PES; hydrological modelling; tropics; Costa Rica; land-use change Modélisation des effets du changement de couvert végétal sur la dynamique des débits d'un bassin versant amont en forêt tropicale humide Résumé Cet article utilise une expérience de modélisation pour examiner différents scénarios d'occupation des sols allant de la déforestation extrême (couverture forestière à 31%) aux conditions d'origine (couverture forestière à 95%), et les schémas associés de Paiement pour les Services Ecosystémiques (PSE) afin de déterminer si un changement de dynamique de l'écoulement fluvial, des extrêmes de débit et du bilan hydrique annuel moyen, peut être détecté dans un bassin versant amont tropical de 73,4 km 2 au Costa Rica. Un modèle conceptuel pluiedébit semi-distribué a été adapté pour conceptualiser les processus hydrologiques dominants de la zone d'étude, déterminés de façon empirique. Il a été calé sur plusieurs critères, à l'aide de différentes fonctions objectif et de contraintes empiriques sur les simulations du modèle, dans le cadre d'une approche de Monte-Carlo pour tenir compte de l'incertitude sur les paramètres. Les résultats suggèrent que le changement d'occupation des sols a eu peu d'effet sur le rendement en eau annuel moyen (<3%). Toutefois, la dynamique des débits se montre sensible en termes de fréquence, de temporalité et d'ampleur des débits extrêmes. Pour les faibles débits et les débits de pointe de périodes de retour supérieures à un an, le changement d'utilisation des sols a eu une influence mineure sur la réponse en d...

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“…They are spatial models, meaning that they focus on the interplay between a range of dimensions within a spatial structure, but do not comprise a spatially explicit reference (for instance, energy-economic, demographic-economic, environmental-economic, and so on). Some examples of these models are integrated planning and decision-making systems (IPDMSs), MEPLAN, tranus integrated land use and transport planning system (TRA-NUS) (USEPA 2000), CLUE-CR (Veldkamp and Fresco 1996a), PLM (Voinov et al 1999), UrbanSim (Waddell 2002), dynamic settlement simulation model (DSSM) (Piyathamrongchai and Batty 2007), land use modeling system (LUMOS) (Beurden et al 2007) and MAS models (Loibl et al 2007). Given the fact that values, aesthetics, politics, and social and normative preferences are an integral part of pragmatic research as well as how it is interpreted and utilized, it is noticeable that integrative models are in line with this integral principle of pragmatism.…”

Section: Hybrid Models: Pro-participatory?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of land use-change modeling: routes of different schools of knowledge

et al. 2016

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Although much has been published on land usechange models (LUCMs), no study has comprehensively dealt with the evolution of land use models based on schools of knowledge. The primary objective of this paper is an explanation of the progress and growth of LUCMs concerning their main ontological, epistemological, and methodological origins. Five main paradigms, i.e., positivism, post-positivism, constructivism, participatory, and pragmatism approaches, are discussed in order to assess the current orientations of LUCMs. Given the complexities of LUCM components, the study concludes that one paradigm cannot adequately address all methodological aspects. Accordingly, it is necessary to combine quantitative and qualitative paradigms to create mixed-method approaches within a systemic framework. Such systemic approaches could shape the most probable future generations of LUCMs, which would be able to cope with the complexity of various subsystems, including biophysical and socioeconomic ones.

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CLUE-CR: An integrated multi-scale model to simulate land use change scenarios in Costa Rica

Cited by 240 publications

References 14 publications

Accuracy assessments and uncertainty analysis of spatially explicit modeling for land use/cover change and urbanization: A case in Beijing metropolitan area

Accuracy assessments and uncertainty analysis of spatially explicit modeling for land use/cover change and urbanization: A case in Beijing metropolitan area

Modelling the impacts of land-cover change on streamflow dynamics of a tropical rainforest headwater catchment

Evolution of land use-change modeling: routes of different schools of knowledge

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