25leading to human infections, suggesting that they are likely human-adapting. However, we also 51 show that within-host evolution in both humans and ducks are shaped heavily by purifying 52 selection and genetic drift, and that a large fraction of within-host variation is never detected on 53 the H5N1 phylogeny. Taken together, our data show that H5N1 viruses do generate human-54 adapting mutations during natural infection. However, short infection times, purifying selection, 55 and genetic drift may severely limit how much H5N1 viruses can evolve during the course of a 56 single infection. 57
58
Introduction
59Influenza virus cross-species transmission poses a continual threat to human health. Since 60 emerging in 1997, H5N1 avian influenza viruses (AIVs) have caused 860 confirmed infections 61 and 454 deaths in humans [1]. H5N1 viruses naturally circulate in aquatic birds, but some 62 lineages have integrated into poultry populations. H5N1 viruses are now endemic in domestic 63 birds in some countries [2][3][4], and concern remains that continued human infection may one day 64 facilitate human adaptation. 65
66The likelihood that an AIV will adapt to replicate and transmit among humans depends on 67 generating and selecting human-adaptive mutations during spillover. Influenza viruses have 68 high mutation rates[5-8], short generation times [9], and large populations, and rapidly generate 69 diversity within-host. Laboratory studies using animal models [10][11][12] show that only 3-5 amino 70 acid substitutions may be required to render H5N1 viruses mammalian-transmissible [10][11][12], 71and that viral variants present at frequencies as low as 5% may be transmitted by respiratory 72 droplets [13]. Subsequent modeling studies suggest that within-host dynamics are conducive to 73 generating human-transmissible viruses, but that these viruses may remain at frequencies too 74 low for transmission [14,15]. Although these studies offer critical insight for H5N1 virus risk 75 4 assessment, it is unclear whether they adequately describe how cross-species transmission 76 proceeds in nature. 77 78 H5N1 virus outbreaks offer rare opportunities to study natural cross-species transmission, but 79 data are limited. One study of H5N1 virus-infected humans in Vietnam identified mutations 80 affecting receptor binding, polymerase activity, and interferon antagonism; however, they 81 remained at low frequencies throughout infection [16]. Recent characterization of H5N1 virus-82 infected humans in Indonesia identified novel mutations within-host that enhance polymerase 83 activity in human cells [17]. Unfortunately, neither of these studies include data from naturally 84 infected poultry, which would provide a critical comparison for assessing whether infected 85 humans exhibit signs of adaptive evolution. A small number of studies have examined within-86 host diversity in experimentally infected poultry [18][19][20], but these may not recapitulate the 87 dynamics of natural infection. 88
89As part of ongoing diagnostic and surv...