Co-Occurring Wintertime Flooding and Extreme Wind Over Europe, from Daily to Seasonal Timescales

Weather, Vol. 79, no. 6, June 2024, pp. 174‐204

“…Second, persistent environmental conditions over timescales >72h would ensure storms extreme in only one hazard occur, creating the large correlations observed. Bloomfield et al (2023) investigated the correlation between aggregate wind and flood severity indices for European cyclones over wintertime aggregation periods ranging from 1 to 180 days. The correlations between wind and flood indices were positive but decreased as the length of aggregation period was increased.…”

“…A peak in correlation occurred between aggregation periods of 40 and 60 days. Bloomfield et al (2023) attributes this to soil saturation, a key flooding precursor, being properly captured by this aggregation period. An accurate flooding severity index should account for such time lag between extreme precipitation and flooding.…”

“…(Sources: Storm Prediction Center, Washington Post.) and Wernli, 2015;Martius et al, 2016;Catto and Dowdy, 2021;Owen et al, 2021), fewer studies have focused on accumulated (aggregate) losses (Hillier and Dixon, 2020;Bloomfield et al, 2023).…”

Correlation of wind and precipitation annual aggregate severity of European cyclones

“…Second, persistent environmental conditions over timescales >72h would ensure storms extreme in only one hazard occur, creating the large correlations observed. Bloomfield et al (2023) investigated the correlation between aggregate wind and flood severity indices for European cyclones over wintertime aggregation periods ranging from 1 to 180 days. The correlations between wind and flood indices were positive but decreased as the length of aggregation period was increased.…”

“…A peak in correlation occurred between aggregation periods of 40 and 60 days. Bloomfield et al (2023) attributes this to soil saturation, a key flooding precursor, being properly captured by this aggregation period. An accurate flooding severity index should account for such time lag between extreme precipitation and flooding.…”