Co‐producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota

Miller, Brian W.; Symstad, Amy J.; Frid, Leonardo; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.

doi:10.1002/ecs2.2020

Cited by 32 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…The importance of this co‐production has been highlighted in development of other STSMs (Miller et al. ), although the specific methodology used for engagement differed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This model co-production has also facilitated model implementation and modeler/manager communications because of SNP staff's working understanding of the model. The importance of this co-production has been highlighted in development of other STSMs (Miller et al 2017), although the specific methodology used for engagement differed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…, Miller et al. ), but more often empirical data are lacking. In these cases, expert elicitation can be combined with available empirical data to parameterize models (Frid et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Parameterizing an STSM can be challenging because it requires the assembly of detailed landscape data and the identification of parameter estimates for many uncertain variables. For some landscapes, historical information exists to derive a distribution of values for a specific parameter, such as fire frequency (Daniel et al 2017, Miller et al 2017), but more often empirical data are lacking. In these cases, expert elicitation can be combined with available empirical data to parameterize models (Frid et al 2013, Miller et al 2017.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For some landscapes, historical information exists to derive a distribution of values for a specific parameter, such as fire frequency (Daniel et al 2017, Miller et al 2017), but more often empirical data are lacking. In these cases, expert elicitation can be combined with available empirical data to parameterize models (Frid et al 2013, Miller et al 2017. Global change dynamics, including climate change and biological invasions, often result in no-analog communities for which historic information does not exist (Williams and Jackson 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Developing an expert elicited simulation model to evaluate invasive species and fire management alternatives

Jarnevich

Young

Backer³

et al. 2019

Ecosphere

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Invasive species can alter ecosystem properties and cause state shifts in landscapes. Resource managers charged with maintaining landscapes require tools to understand implications of alternative actions (or inactions) on landscape structure and function. Simulation models can serve as a virtual laboratory to explore these alternatives and their potential impacts on a landscape. To be useful, however, managers need to participate in model development to ensure that model structure can evaluate the response of key resources to plausible actions. Here, we detail development of a state‐and‐transition simulation model (STSM) to evaluate buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris L. syn Pennisetum ciliare (L.) Link) in Saguaro National Park (SNP), Arizona, USA, through collaboration between managers and researchers. We integrate expert knowledge and research to create and parameterize a stochastic, spatially explicit STSM to evaluate specific management objectives. We also develop a dynamic link between the STSM and a fire behavior model to allow exploration of potential novel processes introduced to the ecosystem by buffelgrass invasion. Our projections show that buffelgrass can be expected to increase on the landscape and that the integration of fire into the model accelerates the projected rate of invasion and increases degradation of resources of management concern. We highlight the benefit of engaging end users in the modeling process so that the model is targeted to evaluate management objectives, in this case retention of saguaro cacti (Carnegiea gigantea (Engelm.) Britton & Rose) on the landscape. Being able to integrate an external model that can help address the unique characteristics of a problem such as the introduction of fire into the SNP desert ecosystem increases the ability of simulations to address complex ecological and management questions.

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“…The importance of this co‐production has been highlighted in development of other STSMs (Miller et al. ), although the specific methodology used for engagement differed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…, Miller et al. ), but more often empirical data are lacking. In these cases, expert elicitation can be combined with available empirical data to parameterize models (Frid et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Developing an expert elicited simulation model to evaluate invasive species and fire management alternatives

Jarnevich

Young

Backer³

et al. 2019

Ecosphere

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Evaluating online and tangible interfaces for engaging stakeholders in forecasting and control of biological invasions

Gaydos

Jones

et al. 2021

Ecological Applications

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Ecological forecasts will be best suited to inform intervention strategies if they are accessible to a diversity of decision‐makers. Researchers are developing intuitive forecasting interfaces to guide stakeholders through the development of intervention strategies and visualization of results. Yet, few studies to date have evaluated how user interface design facilitates the coordinated, cross‐boundary management required for controlling biological invasions. We used a participatory approach to develop complementary tangible and online interfaces for collaboratively forecasting biological invasions and devising control strategies. A diverse group of stakeholders evaluated both systems in the real‐world context of controlling sudden oak death, an emerging forest disease killing millions of trees in California and Oregon. Our findings suggest that while both interfaces encouraged adaptive experimentation, tangible interfaces are particularly well suited to support collaborative decision‐making. Reflecting on the strengths of both systems, we suggest workbench‐style interfaces that support simultaneous interactions and dynamic geospatial visualizations.

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Co‐producing knowledge: the Integrated Ecosystem Model for resource management in Arctic Alaska

Euskirchen

Timm

Breen

et al. 2020

Frontiers in Ecol & Environ

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N orthern Alaska is warming at a rate more than twice that of the contiguous US (Chapin et al. 2014), resulting in transformative change to the tundra and boreal ecosystems that characterize this region. A distinguishing feature of these high-latitude systems is the general absence of a uniform disturbance regime (Walker and Walker 1991). In recent years, however, this region has been marked by more frequent climatically driven disturbances. For example, the 2007 Anaktuvuk River Fire burned 1039 km 2 of tussock tundra during an abnormally warm late summer in an area with no modern record of large wildfires (Mack et al. 2011). As the climate warms, the permafrost thaws and the soil active layer (which lies above the permafrost and which freezes and thaws seasonally) deepens, thereby facilitating the decomposition and eventual release of large amounts of organic carbon (C) stored within the soil (Grosse et al. 2011). Furthermore, changes in the distribution and abundance of tundra vegetation under a warming climate may result in shifts in wildlife habitat (Callaghan et al. 2004; Martin et al. 2009), as well as changes in timing, abundance, and accessibility of resources harvested by local subsistence communities. The residents of rural communities in northern Alaska live at the forefront of this change. Consequently, both residents and land managers have highlighted the need to better understand climate impacts in the terrestrial Arctic (Figure 1), which requires scaling up from the fine resolution of most previous scientific studies to landscape-and regional-level assessments that can guide or inform resource management decisions (Martin et al. 2009). Many existing institutions are not well suited to responding to the expected effects of climate change on ecosystem services or to the uncertainties associated with these effects (Knapp and Trainor 2013; Armsworth et al. 2015), particularly in the rapidly changing Arctic. The creation of climate impacts science for decision making requires sustained communication and collab

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Co‐producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota

Cited by 32 publications

References 58 publications

Developing an expert elicited simulation model to evaluate invasive species and fire management alternatives

Developing an expert elicited simulation model to evaluate invasive species and fire management alternatives

Evaluating online and tangible interfaces for engaging stakeholders in forecasting and control of biological invasions

Co‐producing knowledge: the Integrated Ecosystem Model for resource management in Arctic Alaska

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