CO₂abatement potential towards 2050 for shipping, including alternative fuels

Abstract

Background: Recent studies have demonstrated a cost-effective potential to reduce the CO 2 emissions in the existing world shipping fleet by 15%, and by 30% for the 2030 fleet. Methods & results: CO 2 abatement pathways for shipping towards 2050 have been modeled, using a new probabilistic model. In addition to measures analyzed in the past, the uptake of alternative fuels is modeled. The results show that with uptake of operational and technical measures, as well as biofuels and liquefied natural gas, the cost-effective CO 2 reduction potential in 2050 is in the order of 50%. Conclusion: For shipping to substantially contribute to a 2°C pathway, a financial incentive for biofuel is one alterative, but nuclear power in large ships could also cut emissions drastically.

How to decarbonise international shipping: Options for fuels, technologies and policies

“…Existing literature has included broad estimates of global shipping decarbonisation routes [3,19], as well as some specific estimates of emission reduction measures relating to energy efficiency or vessel design [3,20,21], or from alternative fuels [22,23]. In particular, Bouman et al [20] summarise a large proportion of literature on the potential emissions reductions associated with energy efficiency, ship design and fuel changes.…”

Alternative fuel options for low carbon maritime transportation: Pathways to 2050

“…However, the existing technological and operational measures are not enough to achieve the levels of ambition set in the Initial IMO Strategy (CE Delft and UMAS, 2019). Therefore, by systematically considering the abatement of SO x , NO x and CO 2 emissions, alternative marine fuels have been identified as a promising solution for mid-term and long-term objectives (Eide et al, 2013;Brynolf et al, 2014a).…”

CO2 abatement goals for international shipping

“…To achieve the deep intensity cuts that the preceding analysis shows are necessary for the sector to align with the Paris Agreement clearly amounts to a formidable task. There exist short-term levers of CO 2 intensity that may be exploited, including changes to speed, ship size and utilization, available retro-fit technologies, and other efficiency measures (Eide et al, 2013;Eide, Endresen, Skjong, Longva, & Alvik, 2009). In the longer term, virtually full decarbonization is needed (cf.…”

“…The 2nd IMO GHG Study estimates the potential for improvement at 2.1-3.3% p.a. between 2009-2050(Buhaug et al, 2009; the 3rd IMO GHG Study estimates 2.5% p.a., excluding speed effects and alternative fuels (Smith, Jalkanen et al, 2015); and a study explicitly considering alternative fuels estimates up to 4.3% under the most optimistic set of assumptions (Eide, Chryssakis, & Endresen, 2013). Over the timeframe of decades, the 2nd IMO GHG Study has estimated historical reduction rates of up to 2-3% p.a.…”