CO2 emissions and climate - nature’s prospect on Green Growth

Abstract

The atmospheric treatment of extra CO2 input (additional to the natural source-sink mechanisms) is revealed to follow a simple function during the industrial era. This function is interpreted as useful tool for projections at the optimistic boundary. For instance, the atmospheric CO2 concentration may be contained within about 500 ppmv if mankind’s future carbon emissions remained constant at the present level; in tail, the related temperature contribution will become contained. In this context, the prospect from the transition to renewables is explored. In result, realistic estimates point at precluding positive economic growth for the foreseeable future if temperatures are to be given a reasonable chance to become sustainably restrained within sensible limits.

CO2 abatement economics - a practical view

“…To estimate the related CO 2 emissions, it is assumed that all fossil fuel consumption in the sectors residential and commercial is related to heating. With the preceding emissions gures and energy consumption data (as used for [5], source references therein), fossil-based energy supply in the two sectors is composed of coal, oil, and natural gas by 11, 27, and 62%, respectively, the consumption-weighted average resulting to 367 gCO 2 /kWh. From the studies of [5], 7.4% of total global CO 2 emissions originate from the sectors residential and commercial, and a complete transition to renewables attains a CO 2 emissions reduction in the order of 92%.…”

“…(ii)) For the anthropogenic carbon emissions, the reversibility hypothesis expects that the 3%/year CO 2 uptake of the past (for the 'extra' atmospheric CO 2 additional to equilibrium quantity) [5] remains for the future. For instance if emissions become reduced by 3%/year (year-on-year, geometric), the atmospheric CO 2 concentration is projected to top at 450 ppmv in year 2035 and to return to 335 ppmv in 100 years from now, with then emissions at 5% of present levels.…”

“…With the preceding emissions gures and energy consumption data (as used for [5], source references therein), fossil-based energy supply in the two sectors is composed of coal, oil, and natural gas by 11, 27, and 62%, respectively, the consumption-weighted average resulting to 367 gCO 2 /kWh. From the studies of [5], 7.4% of total global CO 2 emissions originate from the sectors residential and commercial, and a complete transition to renewables attains a CO 2 emissions reduction in the order of 92%. Thus regarding heat supply in these two sectors, the transition from fossil fuels to renewables bears an emissions reduction potential of about 7% off total global emissions.…”

“…Relative to this time scale, the CO 2 concentration increase of the industrial era is young and thus, nature's asymptotic proceeding still at its onset, with (i) relatively strong CO 2 uptake from the atmosphere, i.e. 3%/year [5]; (ii) relatively unchanged ice sheets, indicated by the sea level (see below); (iii) temperature following the CO 2 concentration increase according to a simple prescription and approximately linearly [21]; (iv) with still no recognizable legacy contribution from the move towards the future equilibrium climate state (conclusion from (i-iii) and overall comprehension).…”

Climate change through the essentials–nature's offering and humankind's sine qua non

“…Detailed analysis has been performed on a series of aspects with the focus to uncover reproducibility of the results from sophisticated research since transparency is regarded key to facilitating common understanding (Anderl, 2021a(Anderl, ,b,c,d, 2022a. The covered topics are in brief: reading the temperature contribution of atmospheric CO 2 for equilibrium climate states from paleo-data (Anderl, 2021a); revealing near-proportionality of this temperature contribution to the atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and associated H 2 O (Anderl, 2022a); quantifying the cooling effects of CO 2 and H 2 O by simple modeling (Anderl, 2021b); decomposing equilibrium climate states within Earth's energy budget (Anderl, 2021c); consolidating CO 2 emissions data by contributing sector (Anderl, 2021d); projecting the atmospheric CO 2 concentration on the millennium time scale (Anderl, 2022b); disentangling the CO 2 emissions from land use change to detect mitigation potentials (Anderl, 2022c); estimating the transition cost for the zero-CO 2 world (Anderl, 2022d). The present article synthesizes the essentials viewed required to form a common information base.…”