The broader public demand reproducibility of scientific results particularly related to hot societal topics such as climate change. Our studies focus on the 80:20-rule to identify the essentials from the readily observable. It is found that the paleo-records on the past 400 Mio. years well constrain the compound universal climate role of CO2, this being represented by a very simple formula in line with previous sophisticated simulation results.
The atmospheric treatment of extra CO2 input (additional to the natural source-sink mechanisms) is revealed to follow a simple function during the industrial era. This function is interpreted as useful tool for projections at the optimistic boundary. For instance, the atmospheric CO2 concentration may be contained within about 500 ppmv if mankind’s future carbon emissions remained constant at the present level; in tail, the related temperature contribution will become contained. In this context, the prospect from the transition to renewables is explored. In result, realistic estimates point at precluding positive economic growth for the foreseeable future if temperatures are to be given a reasonable chance to become sustainably restrained within sensible limits.
In search for reproducibility of the results from sophisticated scientific research, the present work focuses on the planetary (longwave) emittance variabilities. A simple model appears applicable through the entire range from very cold to extremely warm climates and for different climate driving forces, i.e. solar luminosity variation and CO2 concentration change. The results interrelate effects from lapse rate, water vapor, CO2, and clouds for equilibrium climate states. Feedback parameters are analysed for the emittance decomposition into the atmospheric window, clouds, and the cloud-free atmosphere. A view is devoted to the faint young Sun problem.
The present studies aim at bridging between sophisticated scientific research and the broader society. The present work examines the economic stimulus required for the intended transition from fossil sources to renewables. To estimate cost competitiveness in energy supply from the various primary sources, a practicable, yet comprehensively levelized and fully described framework is applied. The estimates are compared with previous field reports and projection studies. In result, renewables have principally become cost-competitive to fossil sources in energy production. The overall transition to renewables is found to potentially come cost-neutral. It is argued that no special discounting be necessary if carbon emissions reduction is established in the order of 3 %/year (year-on-year) for about 100 years. Regarding transmission belts, it is advocated to cap plain CO2 pricing at 50 $/tCO2 and moreover, to emphasize distributive and differentiative regulation when considering free-market-based mechanisms such as CO2 pricing and carbon certification/crediting.
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