CO2, GDP and RET: An aggregate economic equilibrium analysis for Turkey

Kumbaroğlu, Gürkan; Karalı, Nihan; Arıkan, Yıldız

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.03.026

Cited by 88 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…The economy-wide technological change and energy efficiency improvement depend on the exogenous autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI). Closure conditions are indispensable to a regional 3E-integrated model, which could effectively avoid unreasonable economy fluctuation due to imperfect market closure (Kumbaroğlu et al, 2008). In the CE3METL model, we assume the ex-and imports dynamically follow the optimal trajectory of GDP growth, and this is achieved by introducing a lower bound and an upper bound, respectively, for the changes of ex-and imports.…”

Section: Description Of the Ce3metl Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties

et al. 2018

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The stringency of China's energy and climate targets in 2030 and the policy needed to realize these targets are full of controversy, mainly as a result of multiple future uncertainties. This study has developed a stochastic energy-economy-environment integrated model, to assess China's energy and climate targets in 2030, with a particular focus on the carbon intensity reduction, carbon emission peaking, and non-fossil energy development. The probabilities of realizing the targets are obtained, and the nexus among different targets is explored. It's argued that carbon emission management and policy-making should be implemented from the perspective of risk management, and policy makers can take corresponding policy measures based on the degree of confidence required under multiple future uncertainties. It is found that the probabilities of realizing carbon emission-peaking target and non-fossil energy target are low, with the business-as-usual efforts, and additional policies may still be needed. More specific, carbon pricing plays a major role in curbing and peaking carbon emissions, while the policy mix of ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT A C C E P T E D M A N U S C R I P T2 carbon pricing and non-fossil energy subsidies can peak the carbon emission with relatively low cost compared to the single carbon pricing policy. It is also found that the carbon intensity reduction target is most likely to be attained, followed by the carbon-peaking target, and then the non-fossil energy target, given the same policy efforts. This indicates that, China may not deliberately increase carbon emissions rapidly over the next decade to make the carbon emission peak as high as possible; otherwise, it may be difficult to achieve the non-fossil energy target.

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Section: Description Of the Ce3metl Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties

et al. 2018

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“…Turkey's mitigation measures focus on increasing the share of renewable energy, integrated waste management, energy efficiency, and establishment of an emission trading mechanism . Expansion of the policy instruments is considered to provide cost‐effectiveness in undertaking mitigation . Critical perspectives, however, argue that in the absence of concrete emissions reduction targets such moves would imperil the effectiveness of climate policies .…”

Section: Relevant Contemporary Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond special circumstances: climate change policy in Turkey 1992–2015

Turhan

Mazlum

Şahin

et al. 2016

WIREs Climate Change

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The contours of Turkey's climate policy have remained almost intact over the past two decades. Being an Annex I party without any mitigation commitments, Turkey maintains a peculiar position under UNFCCC. Subsequent to 12 years of delay in signing both the Framework Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, Turkey had the highest rate of increase in greenhouse gas emissions among the Annex I countries with 110.4% upsurge in the period 1990 and 2013. Yet with the new climate regime now in place, the country's mitigation pledges fall short of expectations both in terms of realistic projections and its ambition to step up in the post‐2020 period. Climate policies in Turkey, an EU candidate and OECD founding member with a growing economy, remain under‐investigated. Although the country has a wide range of policies and institutions in place, it shows limited progress in addressing climate change. Based on evidence from the literature, we observe that climate policies operationalize in Turkey insofar as they do not directly confront developmental ambitions, leaving policy diffusion with limited success. To provide a historic overview, we focus on climate policy development, actors, processes, and contemporary trends. Evidence shows that these are highly ridden with the politics of special circumstances: a notion that Turkey employs to refrain from bindings commitments. In order to go beyond special circumstances discourse, we argue the need for a bold policy shift in Turkey, a country subject to adverse impacts of climate change and high‐carbon lock‐in risk due to development policy preferences. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:448–460. doi: 10.1002/wcc.390 This article is categorized under: Policy and Governance > National Climate Change Policy

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“…Of that amount, roughly one-third was caused by industry, another third by power production, and transportation and other activities were responsible for the rest; households consume approximately half the electricity produced for various uses (Kumbaroglu and Arıkan, 2009). Despite this enormous increase in emission figures, Turkey only recently began to discuss the issue of climate change in official (DEKTMK, 2007), business ( _ Incecik et al, 2007), NGO (Ö zesmi and Altuntop, 2007), and academic (Kumbaroglu et al, 2008) circles. At the policy level, not much has been put into practice other than the recent ratification of the Kyoto protocol in May 2009 (which implied very little in terms of obligations on Turkey at any rate) and some minor legislative improvements to comply with the requirements of the European Union Accession process of Turkey (Turkey, 2009 Progress Report).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%