Cognitive Modelling of Evolution of Regional Food Security Indicators in Import Substitution

Abstract

The purpose of the research is to develop and computer implementation of methods of data mining based on cognitive modeling, obtained as a result of matrix modeling and assessment of the level of food security (FS) in conditions of forced import substitution and increased food exports. As the basic methodology for obtaining an objective assessment of the FS level, a systemic approach was used, as well as separate methods of analysis and structural synthesis of elements of the modeling system. The identification of specific differences of the updated FS Doctrine (2020) was carried out using the method of comparative research. Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) were used as a basic modeling tool. The construction of the graph structure, relationships and weights of the FCM was carried out by means of a previously formed system of indicators. It has been shown that to solve the problem of objective assessment of the FS level, it is advisable to use computer modeling based on fuzzy production cognitive maps. The advisability of integral consideration of key groups of factors is justified: food production, consumption, as well as the share of imports and the rational amount of food reserves in conditions of forced import substitution. The directions of computer system modernization and improvement of mining methods for level prediction are presented. An example of FCM and a diagram of the evolution of the FS support system in pandemic conditions are given.

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“…To justify the necessity of intensification of agriculture in the Russian Federation in spite of the declining population, we will base our argumentation on the concepts of state economic security and food security [44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51]. As shown in these works, these problems are caused by the process of the predominance of the urban population over the rural population [52][53][54][55], depletion of fertile land, population growth in a number of countries, and others. As a result, there is a gap between the capabilities of modern agriculture and the needs of the growing population.…”

“…As a result, there is a gap between the capabilities of modern agriculture and the needs of the growing population. According to [52], this problem will become increasingly severe by 2050 due to the disparity between nations that produce agricultural goods and those that have a critical demand for them. The complexity of solving this problem lies in this gap.…”

“…The complexity of solving this problem lies in this gap. Figure 1, based on data from [52], shows an assessment of world regions based on food security criteria.…”

“…The complexity of solving this problem lies in this gap. Figure 1, based on data from [52], shows an assessment of world regions based on food security criteria. According to the methodology [52], the quantitative assessment of food security involves the identification of three indicators: the region's food security indicator FSreg, the region's food independence indicator FIreg, and the region's food self-sufficiency indicator SFreg.…”

“…The food situation in Africa is much more complex. With an average annual population growth rate According to the methodology [52], the quantitative assessment of food security involves the identification of three indicators: the region's food security indicator FS reg , the region's food independence indicator FI reg , and the region's food self-sufficiency indicator SF reg . These indicators are linked by the ratios…”