Collaborative conservation planning: Quantifying the contribution of expert engagement to identify spatial conservation priorities

Selwood, Katherine E.; Wintle, Brendan A.; Kujala, Heini

doi:10.1111/conl.12673

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Because the default MaxEnt settings for feature classes adjust model complexity based on number of records, MaxEnt may be particularly effective with small data sets (Elith et al 2011), so our findings may not directly apply to SDMs more broadly. Yet, the weak effect of altering species records on spatial priorities has been shown elsewhere (Grantham et al 2008;Selwood et al 2019). Because we used cleaned data and accounted for bias based on full data sets, our subsetting may show reduced effects compared with cases where only few, poorer quality records exist.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

How decisions about fitting species distribution models affect conservation outcomes

Muscatello

Elith

Kujala

2021

Conservation Biology

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Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used in conservation and land-use planning as inputs to describe biodiversity patterns. These models can be built in different ways, and decisions about data preparation, selection of predictor variables, model fitting, and evaluation all alter the resulting predictions. Commonly, the true distribution of species is unknown and independent data to verify which SDM variant to choose are lacking. Such model uncertainty is of concern to planners. We analyzed how 11 routine decisions about model complexity, predictors, bias treatment, and setting thresholds for predicted values altered conservation priority patterns across 25 species. Models were created with MaxEnt and run through Zonation to determine the priority rank of sites. Although all SDM variants performed well (area under the curve >0.7), they produced spatially different predictions for species and different conservation priority solutions. Priorities were most strongly altered by decisions to not address bias or to apply binary thresholds to predicted values; on average 40% and 35%, respectively, of all grid cells received an opposite priority ranking. Forcing high model complexity altered conservation solutions less than forcing simplicity (14% and 24% of cells with opposite rank values, respectively). Use of fewer species records to build models or choosing alternative bias treatments had intermediate effects (25% and 23%, respectively). Depending on modeling choices, priority areas overlapped as little as 10-20% with the baseline solution, affecting top and bottom priorities differently. Our results demonstrate the extent of modelbased uncertainty and quantify the relative impacts of SDM building decisions. When it is uncertain what the best SDM approach and conservation plan is, solving uncertainty or considering alterative options is most important for those decisions that change plans the most.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

How decisions about fitting species distribution models affect conservation outcomes

Muscatello

Elith

Kujala

2021

Conservation Biology

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“…Significant changes will also be required to strengthen agency uptake of science and ensure non-government actors have access to best practice and knowledge if existing (and new) knowledge is to better shape Aotearoa's conservation policy and management decision making (Linklater & Steer 2018;Selwood et al 2019). Such uptake requires (1) employment of relevant scientific expertise within regional and national agencies, (2) active inclusion of scientific expertise in evidence-based policy development and decision-making, (3) commitment to maintaining strong links between inhouse scientists and expertise housed in universities and Crown Research Institutes, and (4) bridging the gap between knowledge generation and implementation, as noted in Te Ara Paerangi.…”

Section: Building Ecological Research Capability and Capacitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such uptake requires (1) employment of relevant scientific expertise within regional and national agencies, (2) active inclusion of scientific expertise in evidence-based policy development and decision-making, (3) commitment to maintaining strong links between inhouse scientists and expertise housed in universities and Crown Research Institutes, and (4) bridging the gap between knowledge generation and implementation, as noted in Te Ara Paerangi. Planning processes that use spatial conservation planning tools (Moilanen et al 2009) to integrate expert knowledge, social values and descriptions of biodiversity patterns could offer major improvements in conservation management (Whitehead et al 2014;Selwood 2019).…”

Section: Building Ecological Research Capability and Capacitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The rise and rise of predator control: a panacea, or a distraction from conservation goals?

Leathwick¹,

Byrom²

2023

NZJE

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We review the recent rise to prominence in Aotearoa New Zealand of predation-focused conservation management, critically assessing the likelihood that this will deliver outcomes consistent with national biodiversity goals. Using a review of literature describing the impacts and control of three groups of introduced mammals (wild ungulates, brushtail possums, and predators), we identify shifts in management emphasis over a century of conservation decision-making in Aotearoa. Predators are now a major focus and wild ungulates are left largely uncontrolled, despite increasing populations and evidence for their negative impacts on a wide range of indigenous species and ecosystems. This imbalance in management effort, which appears to be influenced increasingly by socio-political pressures, is much less likely to deliver outcomes consistent with Aotearoa's biodiversity goals than a systematic approach that addresses a full range of biodiversity threats. Overall, we interpret these shortcomings as reflecting long recognised issues with the governance and leadership of Aotearoa's biodiversity system. Changes are required to provide adequate, stable funding, improve clarity around goals, leadership, responsibilities and accountabilities, strengthen planning and prioritisation of management actions, and coordinate management among various conservation actors. We also argue for (1) a stronger role for ecological sciences through independent research aimed at strengthening the evidence base for management actions, and (2) explicit inclusion of science expertise in conservation policy development and management decision making. While recent extensive, landscape-scale predator control has caught the imagination of many and has undoubtedly delivered some gains for a small subset of indigenous species, it also risks creating a false sense of achievement that diverts attention away from other serious gaps in progress towards achieving national biodiversity goals. We make 12 recommendations to address these shortcomings.

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Should the Christmas Island shrew (Crocidura trichura) be considered extinct?

Woinarski,

Tiernan,

Legge

2023

Aust. Mammal.

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The Christmas Island shrew (Crocidura trichura), endemic to Christmas Island in the Indian Ocean, was abundant at the time of the island’s settlement in the 1890s. However, since 1900, it has been reported only four times (twice in 1958, 1984 and 1985). It is currently considered Critically Endangered under Australian law. Using a recently developed IUCN protocol (the ‘Records and Surveys Model’), based on compilation and assessments of targeted and general sampling effort and detectability, we estimated that there is a 96.3% likelihood that the species is now extinct. However, although many general survey methods (including inspection of cat gut samples, ink cards, audio-recording, pitfall traps, spotlighting and camera traps) have been employed on Christmas Island, most recent sampling has not been targeted specifically to detect this species. Furthermore, there is considerable uncertainty about its likely detectability with different sampling techniques and hence much uncertainty about the estimate of likelihood of extinction. e-DNA sampling, use of detector dogs and refinements in audio-recording may help increase the likelihood of detection, if present. Most current conservation management actions, undertaken for other threatened species on Christmas Island, would provide benefit to the Christmas Island shrew, if it is extant.

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Collaborative conservation planning: Quantifying the contribution of expert engagement to identify spatial conservation priorities

Cited by 3 publications

References 23 publications

How decisions about fitting species distribution models affect conservation outcomes

How decisions about fitting species distribution models affect conservation outcomes

The rise and rise of predator control: a panacea, or a distraction from conservation goals?

Should the Christmas Island shrew (Crocidura trichura) be considered extinct?

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