Collaborative scenario modeling in emergency management through cross-impact

Bañuls, Víctor A.; Turoff, Murray; Hiltz, Starr Roxanne

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.11.007

Cited by 79 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…One possible approach for this is collaborative scenario modelling (Bañuls et al, 2013;Bañuls and Turoff, 2011). The first phase of a future study would be to build on the current factors to develop an event set that can be used to construct dynamic scenarios.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding current and future issues in collaborative consumption: A four-stage Delphi study

Barnes

Mattsson

2016

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

327

222

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Sharing activities underpinned by the technologies of the Internet have become dominant in the activities of individuals, business and governments. Recently, such sharing activity has grown from information and media content to wider resources, including money, physical goods and servicescoined collaborative consumption. Sustainability is often cited as a key driver, underpinned by economic, social and environmental benefits. If successful, the sharing of such resources is likely to have a potentially disruptive impact on incumbents in traditional supply chains. However, given the embryonic state of its development, it is perhaps not surprising that collaborative consumption is not well understood in research or practice. With this in mind, this study undertook a four-stage Delphi study with 25 experts in order to identify the key drivers, inhibitors and likely future developments in collaborative consumption over the next 10 years. A key finding was that environmental concern (sustainability) was considered of minor importance. The paper rounds-off with conclusions and implications for practice and further research.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding current and future issues in collaborative consumption: A four-stage Delphi study

Barnes

Mattsson

2016

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

327

222

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Bañuls, Turoff, and Hiltz applied the technique in combination with CIA to develop collaborative scenarios in Emergency Preparedness [17]. These scenarios were used to enhance the understanding of the factors that were encountered by response teams.…”

Section: Interpretive Structural Modeling (Ism)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Whereas this study used ISM to assess risk factors for business interruption, Wu,et al used ISM to assess risk factors in two Taiwanese, offshore pipeline projects [16]. Bañuls, Turoff, and Hiltz applied the technique in combination with Cross Impact analysis to develop collaborative scenarios in Emergency Preparedness [17]. These scenarios were used to enhance the understanding of the factors that were encountered by response teams.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Risk Scenario for Small Businesses in Hurricane Sandy Type Disasters

Hendela

Turoff

Hiltz

et al. 2017

Proceedings of the 50th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (2017)

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“…Futures Studies traditionally propose three evaluation approaches: an intuitive logic that implies mechanisms of common sense in bringing projections together; trend-impact analysis appealing to the levels of significance and the current dominance of certain factors; cross-impact analysis weighting the impact and dependency of factors on another. This research applies crossimpact analysis, since it helps reveal and transparently document strict and minor technological correlations between projections [64]. In addition, cross-impact analysis can provide insights about functional synergies among sub-technologies.…”

Section: Analytical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting potential innovation activities in high-tech industries triggered by merger and acquisition deals: a framework of analysis

Aminova¹

2016

Eur J Futures Res

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Technologies arising out of successful high-tech mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have a significant innovation potential. However, forecasting of the possible output is coupled with uncertainties caused by misleading or insufficient future-oriented analytics. The proposed framework facilitates publicly available information and data to forecast potential innovation activities of the companies involved in hightech M&As. A five-step scheme of analysis is aimed to assess previous M&A record, intellectual property (IP) portfolios of the focal companies as well as the relevant technological context, and construct pathways of potential innovation activities using elements of a scenario technique and roadmapping. The framework has been tested on the deals including both large concerns and small and medium-sized enterprises (SME). We summarize the paper by reflecting on the merits and limitations of the framework on the way to our objective -to provide grounded forecasting triggered by M&As to support the decision-making.

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Collaborative scenario modeling in emergency management through cross-impact

Cited by 79 publications

References 4 publications

Understanding current and future issues in collaborative consumption: A four-stage Delphi study

Understanding current and future issues in collaborative consumption: A four-stage Delphi study

A Risk Scenario for Small Businesses in Hurricane Sandy Type Disasters

Forecasting potential innovation activities in high-tech industries triggered by merger and acquisition deals: a framework of analysis

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