We theoretically investigate the stochastic decay of persistent
currents in a toroidal ultracold atomic superfluid caused by a
perturbing barrier. Specifically, we perform detailed three-dimensional
simulations to model the experiment of Kumar et al. in [Phys. Rev. A 95
021602 (2017)], which observed a strong temperature dependence in the
timescale of superflow decay in an ultracold Bose gas. Our ab initio
numerical approach exploits a classical-field framework that includes
thermal fluctuations due to interactions between the superfluid and a
thermal cloud, as well as the intrinsic quantum fluctuations of the Bose
gas. In the low-temperature regime our simulations provide a
quantitative description of the experimental decay timescales, improving
on previous numerical and analytical approaches. At higher temperatures,
our simulations give decay timescales that range over the same orders of
magnitude observed in the experiment, however, there are some
quantitative discrepancies that are not captured by any of the
mechanisms we explore. Our results suggest a need for further
experimental and theoretical studies into superflow stability.