Combined influence of PDO and ENSO on northern Andean glaciers: a case study on the Cotopaxi ice-covered volcano, Ecuador

Veettil, Bijeesh Kozhikkodan; Maier, Éder Leandro Bayer; Bremer, Ulisses Franz; Souza, Sérgio Florêncio de

doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2114-8

Cited by 37 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Our results are in accordance with our current understanding of the ENSO/glacier relationship in the Central and Tropical Andes (e.g. Arnaud et al, 2001;Favier et al, 2004;Francou et al, 2004;Vuille et al, 2008b;Veettil et al, 2014). However, we find a stronger SSTA → MB relationship than described in Vuille et al (2008b) and cannot confirm their exceptional years (1983 and 1994).…”

Section: Summary and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 69%

“…The influence of ENSO in the tropical and central Andes can be roughly summarized with prevailing warmer and drier conditions during El Niño phases, while colder and wetter conditions prevail during La Niña phases. As a result, studies dealing with ENSO's influence on tropical Andean glaciers reported a significant anti-correlation between Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and MB (Arnaud et al, 2001;Francou et al, 2004;Vuille et al, 2008b;Veettil et al, 2014). The extreme 1997/98 Niño year, for example, caused exceptional glacier melt in the outer tropics (Wagnon et al, 2001;Francou et al, 2003).…”

Section: F Maussion Et Al: Enso Influence On Shallap Glacier Cordimentioning

confidence: 99%

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ENSO influence on surface energy and mass balance at Shallap Glacier, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

et al. 2015

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Abstract. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of climate variability in the tropical Andes, where recent Niño and Niña events left an observable footprint on glacier mass balance. The nature and strength of the relationship between ENSO and glacier mass balance, however, varies between regions and time periods, leaving several unanswered questions about its exact mechanisms. The starting point of this study is a 4-year long time series of distributed surface energy and mass balance (SEB/SMB) calculated using a process-based model driven by observations at Shallap Glacier (Cordillera Blanca, Peru). These data are used to calibrate a regression-based downscaling model that links the local SEB/SMB fluxes to atmospheric reanalysis variables on a monthly basis, allowing an unprecedented quantification of the ENSO influence on the SEB/SMB at climatological time scales (1980-2013. We find a stronger and steadier anti-correlation between Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) and glacier mass balance than previously reported. This relationship is most pronounced during the wet season (December-May) and at low altitudes where Niño (Niña) events are accompanied with a snowfall deficit (excess) and a higher (lower) radiation energy input. We detect a weaker but significant ENSO anticorrelation with total precipitation (Niño dry signal) and positive correlation with the sensible heat flux, but find no ENSO influence on sublimation. Sensitivity analyses comparing several downscaling methods and reanalysis data sets resulted in stable mass balance correlations with Pacific SST but also revealed large uncertainties in computing the mass balance trend of the last decades. The newly introduced open-source downscaling tool can be applied easily to other glaciers in the tropics, opening new research possibilities on even longer time scales.

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Section: Summary and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 69%

Section: F Maussion Et Al: Enso Influence On Shallap Glacier Cordimentioning

confidence: 99%

ENSO influence on surface energy and mass balance at Shallap Glacier, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

et al. 2015

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“…Both studies picture a situation characterized by a rapidly shrinking surface area, length and volume of glaciers due to an almost continuously negative mass balance, particularly since the late 1970s. Superimposed on the negative trends are variations on interannual and decadal time scales, that primarily reflect the state of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST), with often (but not always) significant mass loss during warm episodes associated with El Niño events, while cold phases (La Niña) tend to lead to less negative or in some cases even balanced or slightly positive mass balance (e.g., Francou et al, 2003Francou et al, , 2004Vuille et al, 2008b;Favier et al, 2004;Lopez-Moreno et al, 2014;Veettil et al, 2014). Wagnon et al (2001) and more recently Maussion et al (2015) examined the role played by the El Niño -Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in more detail and quantified the various energy fluxes that contribute to ENSO-related mass balance anomalies on glaciers in the Cordillera Real, Bolivia, and Cordillera Blanca, Peru (see Fig.…”

Section: Current State Of Glaciers and Climate Change In The Tropicalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead

Vuille

Carey

Huggel

et al. 2018

Earth-Science Reviews

258

213

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Glaciers in the tropical Andes have been retreating for the past several decades, leading to a temporary increase in dry season water supply downstream. Projected future glacier shrinkage, however, will lead to a long-term reduction in dry season river discharge from glacierized catchments. This glacier retreat is closely related to the observed increase in high-elevation, surface air temperature in the region. Future projections using a simple freezing level height-equilibrium-line altitude scaling approach suggest that glaciers in the inner tropics, such as Antizana in Ecuador, may be most vulnerable to future warming while glaciers in the more arid outer tropics, such as Zongo in Bolivia, may persist, albeit in a smaller size, throughout the 21st century regardless of emission scenario. Nonetheless many uncertainties persist, most notably problems with accurate snowfall measurements in the glacier accumulation zone, uncertainties in establishing accurate thickness measurements on glaciers, unknown future changes associated with local-scale circulation and cloud cover affecting glacier energy balance, the role of aerosols and in particular black carbon deposition on Andean glaciers, and the role of groundwater and aquifers interacting with glacier meltwater.The reduction in water supply for export-oriented agriculture, mining, hydropower production and human consumption are the most commonly discussed concerns associated with glacier retreat, but many other aspects including glacial hazards, tourism and recreation, and ecosystem integrity are also affected by glacier retreat. Social and political problems surrounding water allocation for subsistence farming have led to conflicts due to lack of adequate water governance. Local water management practices in many regions reflect cultural belief systems, perceptions and spiritual values and glacier retreat in some places is seen as a threat to these local livelihoods.Comprehensive adaptation strategies, if they are to be successful, therefore need to consider science, policy, culture and practice, and involve local populations. Planning needs to be based not only on future scenarios derived from physically-based numerical models, but must also consider societal needs, economic agendas, political conflicts, socioeconomic inequality and cultural values. This review elaborates on the need for adaptation as well as the challenges and constraints many adaptation projects are faced with, and lays out future directions where opportunities exist to develop successful, culturally acceptable and sustainable adaptation strategies.

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“…(Zhang et al 1997). These atmospheric circulation indices are considered good measures of airflow and moisture transport variability (e.g., Carrasco et al 2005;Garreaud 2009;McClung 2013;López-Moreno et al 2014) and this variation is considered to be important for glacier conditions (e.g., Francou et al 2003Francou et al , 2004Favier et al 2004;Vuille et al 2008;Sagredo and Lowell 2012;Saltzmann et al 2013;Veettil et al 2014;Malmros et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mass loss and imbalance of glaciers along the Andes Cordillera to the sub-Antarctic islands

Mernild

Beckerman

Yde³

et al. 2015

Global and Planetary Change

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Combined influence of PDO and ENSO on northern Andean glaciers: a case study on the Cotopaxi ice-covered volcano, Ecuador

Cited by 37 publications

References 48 publications

ENSO influence on surface energy and mass balance at Shallap Glacier, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

ENSO influence on surface energy and mass balance at Shallap Glacier, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead

Mass loss and imbalance of glaciers along the Andes Cordillera to the sub-Antarctic islands

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