Combined use of relative drought indices to analyze climate change impact on meteorological and hydrological droughts in a Mediterranean basin

Marcos-García, Patricia; Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Pulido-Velázquez, Manuel

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.09.028

Cited by 94 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…The future ensemble precipitation scenarios were analysed in terms of drought statistics ( Figure 13). All four ensembles predict considerable increases in length, magnitude, and intensity of droughts as others authors pointed out for different Mediterranean zones [8,9]. Note that, although for a specific RCM model ( Figure 10) we obtained some "strange" SPI values, smaller than −4 (see Section 4.1), which are usually considered as outliers, we do not obtain values smaller than −4 for any the considered ensemble scenarios in our case study.…”

Section: Ensembles Of Predictions To Define More Representative Futursupporting

confidence: 72%

“…From the SPI series, the statistics were obtained by applying run theory [46,47]. Note that the probability of occurrence of precipitation for the SPI calculation, in the control and future simulations, was obtained using parameters calibrated from the observed series, in order to perform an appropriate comparison [9].…”

Section: Generation Of Future Individual Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We should take into account that they are obtained from the simulation with a single specific RCM model in a long-term future horizon (2071-2100) under the most pessimistic emission scenario (RCP 8.5). On the other hand, we should also take into account that the probability of occurrence of precipitation for the SPI calculation, in the control and future simulations, was obtained using parameters calibrated from the observed series, in order to perform an appropriate comparison [9]. Nevertheless, these results show that, using a single model, we could obtain some "strange" values.…”

Section: Application Of Different Correction Techniquesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In recent years, the number of studies assessing the impacts of climate change on droughts (through appropriate indices and techniques) in water resources systems [5,6], which is a major concern of climate change, has increased [7][8][9]. Some authors point out that the global climate models (GCMs) and regional climatic models (RCMs) are generally able to reproduce the observed pattern of droughts [10,11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

An Integrated Statistical Method to Generate Potential Future Climate Scenarios to Analyse Droughts

Collados‐Lara

Pulido-Velázquez

Pardo‐Igúzquiza

2018

Water

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The objective of this paper is to investigate different methods to generate future potential climatic scenarios at monthly scale considering meteorological droughts. We assume that more reliable scenarios would be generated by using regional climatic models (RCMs) and statistical correction techniques that produce better approximations to the historical basic and drought statistics. A multi-objective analysis is proposed to identify the inferior approaches. Different ensembles (equifeasible and non-equifeasible) solutions are analysed, identifying their pros and cons. A sensitivity analysis of the method to spatial scale is also performed. The proposed methodology is applied in an alpine basin, the Alto Genil (southern Spain). The method requires historical climatic information and simulations provided by multiple RCMs (9 RCMs are considered in the proposed application) for a future period, assuming a potential emission scenario. We generate future series by applying two conceptual approaches, bias correction and delta change, using five statistical transformation techniques for each. The application shows that the method allows improvement of the definition of local climate scenarios from the RCM simulation considering drought statistics. The sensitivity of the results to the applied approach is analysed.

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Section: Ensembles Of Predictions To Define More Representative Futursupporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Generation Of Future Individual Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Application Of Different Correction Techniquesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

An Integrated Statistical Method to Generate Potential Future Climate Scenarios to Analyse Droughts

Collados‐Lara

Pulido-Velázquez

Pardo‐Igúzquiza

2018

Water

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“…The effects of drought can be deleterious. Marcos-Garcia et al [37] stated that drought is a major natural hazard that can be costlier than any other natural hazard. Smith and Katz [38] mentioned that the global economic losses caused by droughts are significantly higher than that of any other natural disasters, estimated at a cost of around $6-8 billion USD every year.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Extreme Drought Climate on Water Security in North Borneo: Case Study of Sabah

Payus

Huey

Adnan

et al. 2020

Water

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For countries in Southeast Asia that mainly rely on surface water as their water resource, changes in weather patterns and hydrological systems due to climate change will cause severely decreased water resource availability. Warm weather triggers more water use and exacerbates the extraction of water resources, which will change the operation patterns of water usage and increase demand, resulting in water scarcity. The occurrence of prolonged drought upsets the balance between water supply and demand, significantly increasing the vulnerability of regions to damaging impacts. The objectives of this study are to identify trends and determine the impacts of extreme drought events on water levels for the major important water dams in the northern part of Borneo, and to assess the risk of water insecurity for the dams. In this context, remote sensing images are used to determine the degree of risk of water insecurity in the regions. Statistical methods are used in the analysis of daily water levels and rainfall data. The findings show that water levels in dams on the North and Northeast Coasts of Borneo are greatly affected by the extreme drought climate caused by the Northeast Monsoon, with mild to the high risk recorded in terms of water insecurity, with only two of the water dams being water-secure. This study shows how climate change has affected water availability throughout the regions.

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The application of spreadsheets for teaching hydrological modeling and climate change impacts on streamflow

Pérez‐Sánchez

Senent‐Aparicio

Jimeno‐Sáez

2022

Comp Applic In Engineering

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Hydrology teaching currently relies upon educators' background, requiring a change in training future professionals to manage water resources to address climate change, among other issues. In the teaching experience described in this paper, traditional lectures in a postgraduate civil engineering master's degree were replaced by the development and assessment of a lumped hydrological model implemented into an Excel spreadsheet. Although the primary activity evaluated the long‐term impacts of climate change on streamflow in a watershed, the students were required to address several specific issues such as calibration and validation processes, goodness‐of‐fit metrics, uncertainties of parameters, and sensitivity analysis. The learning experience's efficacy was assessed by conducting two surveys comparing the participants' knowledge before and after the exercise. The results revealed that 92.3% of the students considered that their hydrological skills had improved significantly following the exercise. Furthermore, the acquisition of hydrological modeling concepts was satisfactorily appreciated by all the participants, 97.6% of whom considered it useful or highly useful. Using a spreadsheet as a complementary tool in hydrology teaching increases student participation and motivation provided it is a contemporary and appealing issue, and the teacher clearly defines, monitors, and follows up on the class objectives.

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Combined use of relative drought indices to analyze climate change impact on meteorological and hydrological droughts in a Mediterranean basin

Cited by 94 publications

References 44 publications

An Integrated Statistical Method to Generate Potential Future Climate Scenarios to Analyse Droughts

An Integrated Statistical Method to Generate Potential Future Climate Scenarios to Analyse Droughts

Impact of Extreme Drought Climate on Water Security in North Borneo: Case Study of Sabah

The application of spreadsheets for teaching hydrological modeling and climate change impacts on streamflow

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