The objective of this paper is to investigate different methods to generate future potential climatic scenarios at monthly scale considering meteorological droughts. We assume that more reliable scenarios would be generated by using regional climatic models (RCMs) and statistical correction techniques that produce better approximations to the historical basic and drought statistics. A multi-objective analysis is proposed to identify the inferior approaches. Different ensembles (equifeasible and non-equifeasible) solutions are analysed, identifying their pros and cons. A sensitivity analysis of the method to spatial scale is also performed. The proposed methodology is applied in an alpine basin, the Alto Genil (southern Spain). The method requires historical climatic information and simulations provided by multiple RCMs (9 RCMs are considered in the proposed application) for a future period, assuming a potential emission scenario. We generate future series by applying two conceptual approaches, bias correction and delta change, using five statistical transformation techniques for each. The application shows that the method allows improvement of the definition of local climate scenarios from the RCM simulation considering drought statistics. The sensitivity of the results to the applied approach is analysed.
In this research paper we propose a novel method to perform an integrated analysis of the status and vulnerability of coastal aquifers to seawater intrusion (SWI). The method is based on a conceptual approach of intrusion that allows to summarised results in a visual way at different spatial scales, moving from steady pictures (corresponding to instantaneous or mean values in a period) including maps and 2D conceptual crosssections and temporal series of lumped indices. Our aim is to help in the identification of coastal groundwater bodies at risk of not achieving good chemical status according to the Water Framework Directive. The indices are obtained from available information about aquifer geometry and historical monitoring data (chloride concentration and
The mean precipitation measurements in a Mediterranean Alpine catchment in Sierra Nevada show an inversion of the gradient with the altitude beyond a certain threshold. Is it due to a real pattern or it can be explained by systematic error of solid precipitation measurement in gauges? Can we assess climatic fields in an alpine catchment from gauge measurement? This article describes a research developed to answer both questions in the Alto Genil Basin. As commonly happens in most of the basins, the spatio‐temporal information from climate gauges is limited; therefore to reduce uncertainty in estimates of climatic fields, some secondary information should be introduced. Since orographic conditions clearly influence precipitation, the relationship between this climatic variable and elevation is usually included as secondary information into the estimates. However, while there is a clear relationship between temperature and elevation, the relationship between precipitation and elevation is not so simple. In this article the analysis of the data performed allow us to demonstrate that there is a real inversion of the gradient within this Mediterranean Alpine area as other authors previously pointed in some tropical and subtropical zones. The intensity of this phenomenon and the altitude threshold from which it appears can be altered as a consequence of the undercath of the solid precipitation. To estimate precipitation fields, we have used different hypotheses about the intensity of the undercatch taking into account empirical corrections obtained for nearby mountain ranges. An analysis of the sensitivity of the results to the assumed undercatch hypothesis shows that it is not possible to estimate properly precipitation fields (the sensitivity of the results to the adopted hypothesis is high) in these alpine areas if we only have information about the precipitation measurements at the stations.
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