Combining agent functional types, capitals and services to model land use dynamics

Murray-Rust, Dave; Brown, Calum; Vliet, Jasper van; Alam, Shah Jamal; Robinson, Derek T.; Verburg, Peter H.; Rounsevell, Mark

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.05.019

Cited by 91 publications

(85 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Thematic extension has also occurred, particularly through linkages between models of land-use and natural systems, with behavioural responses to environmental change often being prioritised [143,144]. Additional detail has also been incorporated within the land-use system, with several recent models investigating the interactions of individual and institutional entities [33,145,146] (Fig. 2).…”

Section: Integrated Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There is considerable potential to link these emerging models with ecological models, including integrodifference and individual-based models, to project biodiversity and ecosystem service futures. This example shows output from the agent-based model CRAFTY [33] of land-use scenarios in Xishuangbanna, China. Note: these are just a few of many scenarios, and should not be considered as predictive.…”

Section: Process-based Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, considerable attention has been paid to Bupscaling^methodologies to allow model application at regional to global scales (e.g. [33,35,141,142]). Thematic extension has also occurred, particularly through linkages between models of land-use and natural systems, with behavioural responses to environmental change often being prioritised [143,144].…”

Section: Integrated Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Emerging Opportunities for Landscape Ecological Modelling

Synes

Brown

Watts

et al. 2016

Curr Landscape Ecol Rep

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Landscape ecological modelling provides a vital means for understanding the interactions between geographical, climatic, and socio-economic drivers of land-use and the dynamics of ecological systems. This growing field is playing an increasing role in informing landscape spatial planning and management. Here, we review the key modelling approaches that are used in landscape modelling and in ecological modelling. We identify an emerging theme of increasingly detailed representation of process in both landscape and ecological modelling, with complementary suites of modelling approaches ranging from correlative, through aggregated process based approaches to models with much greater structural realism that often represent behaviours at the level of agents or individuals. We provide examples of the considerable progress that has been made at the intersection of landscape modelling and ecological modelling, while also highlighting that the majority of this work has to date exploited a relatively small number of the possible combinations of model types from each discipline. We use this review to identify key gaps in existing landscape ecological modelling effort and highlight emerging opportunities, in particular for future work to progress in novel directions by combining classes of landscape models and ecological models that have rarely been used together.

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Section: Integrated Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Process-based Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Integrated Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Emerging Opportunities for Landscape Ecological Modelling

Synes

Brown

Watts

et al. 2016

Curr Landscape Ecol Rep

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“…Epstein 2012). Uncertainty is an inherent property of social systems, and models are particularly useful for allowing controlled-if artificial-experiments that explore such uncertainty (Young et al 1996;Janssen and Ostrom 2006;Lustick and Miodownik 2009;Brown et al 2014). This may be best achieved through the complementary stages of analysis identified above, with topdown approaches used to identify broad relationships of interest, and bottom-up approaches used to investigate processes responsible for those relationships.…”

Section: Model Validation and Usementioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a result, several instances of hybrid models exist, incorporating elements of top-down and bottom-up approaches as appropriate to their purpose (e.g. Verburg and Overmars 2009;Murray-Rust et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A philosophical case for process-based modelling of land use change

Brown

Rounsevell

2016

Model. Earth Syst. Environ.

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Modelling is used to describe, explore and predict changes in land use and other human systems. 'Top-down' and 'bottom-up' modelling approaches are both popular, and each has important philosophical implications that correspond closely to major debates in social science. We outline some key contributions to these debates and argue that social processes such as those underlying land use decisions are fundamentally determined by individual intentionality, interacting with social norms of language, culture and institutions, rather than by general and predictable 'laws'. Therefore, bottom-up models that reflect these processes offer far more informative accounts of system development. However, prediction remains outside the scope of either approach, and methods of validation based on tests of historical predictive ability risk over-fitting to trends and underestimating uncertainties. We explore the implications of these arguments for model design and use, and for general understanding of such fundamentally complex, spontaneously evolving systems.

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