Combining point‐process and landscape vegetation models to predict large herbivore distributions in space and time—A case study of Rupicapra rupicapra

Abstract

Aim When modelling the distribution of animals under current and future conditions, both their response to environmental constraints and their resources’ response to these environmental constraints need to be taken into account. Here, we develop a framework to predict the distribution of large herbivores under global change, while accounting for changes in their main resources. We applied it to Rupicapra rupicapra, the chamois of the European Alps. Location The Bauges Regional Park (French Alps). Methods We built sixteen plant functional groups (PFGs) that account for the chamois’ diet (estimated from sequenced environmental DNA found in the faeces), climatic requirements, dispersal limitations, successional stage and interaction for light. These PFGs were then simulated using a dynamic vegetation model, under current and future climatic conditions up to 2100. Finally, we modelled the spatial distribution of the chamois under both current and future conditions using a point‐process model applied to either climate‐only variables or climate and simulated vegetation structure variables. Results Both the climate‐only and the climate and vegetation models successfully predicted the current distribution of the chamois species. However, when applied into the future, the predictions differed widely. While the climate‐only models predicted an 80% decrease in total species occupancy, including vegetation structure and plant resources for chamois in the model provided more optimistic predictions because they account for the transient dynamics of the vegetation (−20% in species occupancy). Main conclusions Applying our framework to the chamois shows that the inclusion of ecological mechanisms (i.e., plant resources) produces more realistic predictions under current conditions and should prove useful for anticipating future impacts. We have shown that discounting the pure effects of vegetation on chamois might lead to overpessimistic predictions under climate change. Our approach paves the way for improved synergies between different fields to produce biodiversity scenarios.

The role of climate and biotic factors in shaping current distributions and potential future shifts of EuropeanNeocrepidodera(Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae)

“…Recent studies have highlighted the usefulness of including within the HSMs some predictors representing biotic interactions (Hof et al, 2012;Gherghel et al, 2018;Paiva-Silva et al, 2018) and/or the response of the resources used by animal species to the same abiotic variables used to model the species' potential distribution (Thuiller et al, 2018). Thus, for two selected pairs of closely related Neocrepidodera taxa, we implemented a nested modelling framework in which the predictions from Ensemble Models (EMs) built for the candidate host plants were included as predictors in the EMs built for the hosted flea beetles.…”

Interactions between outdoor recreation and iconic terrestrial vertebrates in two French alpine national parks

“…Whilst powerful through its spatial extensiveness, spatial modelling of wildlife habitat and recreation indicators will need to be combined with other data sources including advanced analyses of social media images and trip reports, spatial tracking and social data. Further analyses also ought to incorporate climate change sensitivities, which are critical for multiple iconic high mountain vertebrates (Revermann et al, 2012;Thuiller et al, 2018;Zurell et al, 2012) and add to risks from human disturbance (Imperio et al, 2013). Likewise expected changes in outdoor recreation practices will need to be accounted for.…”

Seasonal diet composition of Pyrenean chamois is mainly shaped by primary production waves

“…A study using DNA barcoding [30], on the other hand, showed that chamois can consume up to 110 different species. This difference has been attributed to the high level of resolution obtained with the DNA approach but also to the higher plant biodiversity of the study area (more than 1.500 species recorded, [73]). In fact, it is necessary to highlight the limitations related to dietary studies based on faecal cuticle microhistological analyses, such as ours.…”