Combining scenario planning and business wargaming to better anticipate future competitive dynamics

Schwarz, Jan Oliver; Ram, Camelia; Rohrbeck, René

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2018.10.001

Cited by 49 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Wargaming is a forward-looking strategic technique aimed to uncover the future dynamics of specific industry focusing on the likely actions and counteractions between an organization and its competitors. It therefore tackles the intrinsic uncertainties within a defined competitive environment [Schwarz et al, 2019]. It is also a realistic and structured simulation of a competitive market tailored to a particular organization, to support its strategic formulation process, particularly to test a strategic plan [Ioia, 2014;Gilad, 2009;Oriesek, Schwartz, 2008;Fleisher, Bensoussan, 2007].…”

Section: Scenario Analysis and Wargamingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Scenario analysis would provide a set of plausible settings around these questions, and therefore deal with broader exogenous uncertainties [Schwarz et al, 2019] in a moment in which neither the service/product was completely defined nor the industry it would fit into. The exercise had three additional advantages.…”

Section: Execution Of the Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We applied an industry-centered version of the method such as the one developed by Herman Kahn at the RAND organization, later refined by Royal Dutch/Shell to foresee the long-term evolution of the energy business and ensure the company´s competitive advantages [Schwarz et al, 2019;Augier et al, 2018;Chermack, 2011;Sawka, Rothberg, 2013;Fleisher, Bensoussan, 2007]. Its aim was to outline the likely S. Jose Godoy, G. Bastías ГОСУДАРСТВО И ОБЩЕСТВО evolution of the health communication and technologies market and assess whether Bienestando could be adopted by the beneficiaries.…”

Section: Execution Of the Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The viability of the two-tier deployment strategy for Bienestando was evaluated by means of a corporate wargame as described by [Oriesek, Schwarz, 2008;Gilad, 2009;Schwarz et al, 2019]. We sought to discover the weaknesses and opportunities of our strategy and identify the likely consequences of it.…”

Section: Execution Of the Corporate Wargamementioning

confidence: 99%

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Корпоративные Войны И Иные Способы Тестирования Решений Проблем Системы Электронного Здравоохранения В Чили

Годой

Bastías

2019

MONITORING OF PUBLIC OPINION

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Как и во многих других странах ОЭСР, система оказания медицинских услуг населению в Чили испытывает большое давление в связи с большой продолжительностью жизни и увеличением доли пожилого населения. Нехватка мер превентивного характера указывает на то, что система вмешивается лишь тогда, когда нужно устранить значительные проблемы со здоровьем. Задача является дорогостоящей из-за растущего числа пожилых людей. На основе данных автоматизированного колл-центра и специального интернет-сайта авторы статьи протестировали прототип онлайн-ресурса Bienestando по профилактике здоровья среди пожилых чилийцев. Сервис Bienestando родился благодаря тому преимуществу, что уровень распространения интернета в стране высок, а целевая группа широко пользуется им с целью получения информации о здоровье. Данная статья – скорее попытка предвидеть то, как покажет себя стратегия популяризовать данный ресурс, нежели описать сам прототип и его эффект. Авторы использовали многосторонний подход к информированию населения по вопросам здоровья, комбинируя его с методами конкурентной разведки, а именно: редкое сочетание корпоративных военных игр и анализа сценариев. Обычно эти прогностические методики используются в стратегическом бизнес планировании. В данном исследовании они были применены для выработки правдоподобных способов обобщения результатов исследования. Такой подход согласуется с научными принципами, частью которых является установка на использование научного знания для решения конкретных проблем; в данном случае в целях содействия профилактике здоровья в связи с процессом старения населения в Чили.

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Section: Scenario Analysis and Wargamingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Execution Of the Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Execution Of the Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Execution Of the Corporate Wargamementioning

confidence: 99%

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Корпоративные Войны И Иные Способы Тестирования Решений Проблем Системы Электронного Здравоохранения В Чили

Годой

Bastías

2019

MONITORING OF PUBLIC OPINION

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“…Essas limitações e dificuldades precisam ser observadas como lacunas que precisam de respostas, e somente a continuidade da pesquisa na área poderá empírico, sob a perspectiva ROHRBECK et al, 2015;ROHRBECK , KUM, 2018;SCHWARZ et al, 2019).…”

Section: Os Limites Da Teoria Da Visão Baseada Em Recursosunclassified

Corporate foresight como competência organizacional para construção de vantagem competitiva

Mazzero¹

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i Aos meus pais Sonia e Nilson, que me educaram com valores princípios, à Patricia, minha irmã companheira e grande parceira de vida, ao meu querido sobrinho Felipe, à Sophia, minha filha amada, que me faz desejar ser alguém melhor todos os dias, e ao Marcos, o grande amor da minha vida, companheiro e melhor amigo.ii AGRADECIMENTOS Agradeço a Deus, por me fazer perseverar e levantar mais forte após a queda. À CAPES, por permitir que eu pudesse me dedicar à pesquisa proposta por esta tese.Aos meus pais, Nilson e Sonia, por me ensinarem os valores e princípios humanos que me guiam em minha vida. À minha irmã Patricia e meu sobrinho Felipe, que sempre solicitavam notícias sobre a evolução da tese, tema que se tornou comum nos almoços de domingo em família.Ao meu marido Marcos e minha filha Sophia, que compreenderam minhas ausências em diversos momentos para dedicar-me à tese e mantiveram seu apoio incondicional em todos os momentos do período do doutorado. À minha orientadora, Professora. Dra. Renata Giovinazzo Spers, pela paciência e carinho com que me tratou durante o período do doutorado, pelos conselhos e amizade que me presentou, e especialmente pela confiança no meu trabalho.Ao Professor Geraldo Luciano Toledo pelo privilégio da convivência e valiosas contribuições para meu desenvolvimento acadêmico durante o doutorado.Ao Professor James Terence Coulter Wright pela honra de ter feito parte de sua história e legado, por ter apostado na minha capacidade de criar, no meu trabalho docente, e nas minhas ideias inovadoras e malucas. À Janise Rocha, minha fiel parceira que cuida da minha filha e de minha casa com o maior amor do mundo.Aos meus amigos muito queridos do Profuturo, Alexandre Pupo, Cristiane, Ivana, Karen, Paloma, Gisele, Elaine, Daniana, Cinthya, Juliana e Daniel. Nunca deixaram de me apoiar e me darem todo suporte para que tudo caminhasse bem durante todo doutorado.Ao Marcelo Henrique de Araújo, pela paciência de me ouvir e ajudar quando eu tinha perguntas malucas sobre metodologia no meio do corredor do FEA 1. À irmã de coração, Luisa Guimarães, parceira querida de pesquisa e grande entusiasta do meu projeto. Amiga do coração.Ao meu amigo-irmão Nelson Daishiro Yoshida. Pelo enorme desafio que passamos no projeto da Coursera, pela parceria nos projetos especiais, por sempre estar ao meu lado entusiasmado com nossos novos projetos.Por último, à minha querida amiga e entusiasta Patrícia Carla, por me obrigar a fazer a inscrição no processo do PPGA e crer na minha capacidade mais do que eu mesma. iii "O futuro dependerá daquilo que fazemos no presente." Mahatma Gandhi iv RESUMO A trajetória e desenvolvimento de Corporate Foresight, uma competência organizacional que permite estabelecer os alicerces para a construção de vantagem competitiva no contexto estratégico das organizações, têm revelado uma corrente de pesquisa independente no campo de estudos do futuro. A evolução do interesse sobre o tema, nos âmbitos acadêmico e gerencial, remete à necessidade de ampliar suas fronteiras interdisciplinares, perme...

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What's luck got to do with it? Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)

Gracht

2021

Futures & Foresight Science

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This commentary refers to the retrospective review by Rowland and Spaniol in Futures and Foresight Science (2021), which provides interesting insights into Kees van der Heijden's character and work 25 years after his famous book Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation was first published. The commentator draws on his own personal experience of Kees' work and book, including a seminar with him at the University of Oxford in 2011, as well as applying the book's fundamentals in his own research and advisory work over the past ten years.

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Combining scenario planning and business wargaming to better anticipate future competitive dynamics

Cited by 49 publications

References 42 publications

Корпоративные Войны И Иные Способы Тестирования Решений Проблем Системы Электронного Здравоохранения В Чили

Корпоративные Войны И Иные Способы Тестирования Решений Проблем Системы Электронного Здравоохранения В Чили

Corporate foresight como competência organizacional para construção de vantagem competitiva

What's luck got to do with it? Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)

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