Communicating complex forecasts: an analysis of the approach in Nepal's flood early warning system

Abstract

Abstract. Early warning systems have the potential to save lives and improve resilience. However, barriers and challenges remain in disseminating and communicating early warning information to institutional decision-makers, community members and individuals at risk, including unequal access, insufficient understanding, and inability to act on warning information. Research was undertaken to analyse and understand the current flood early warning system in Nepal, considering available data and forecasts, information flows, early warning dissemination, and decision-making for early action. Data were collected from key informant interviews, community-level questionnaires, and a national stakeholder workshop and qualitatively analysed. The availability and utilisation of simple and complex flood forecasts in Nepal, and their integration into dissemination, and decision support tools were reviewed, considering their impact on improving early action to increase the resilience of vulnerable communities to flooding. Results suggest that as Nepal continues to advance in hydro-meteorological forecasting capabilities, efforts are simultaneously needed to ensure these forecasts are more effectively communicated and disseminated.

Editorial: Geoscience communication – Planning to make it publishable

“…Other familiar data collection tools such as interviews (e.g. Vicari et al, 2019;Budimir et al, 2020) and focus groups (e.g. Neumann et al, 2018) are used to elicit rich, qualitative data with interviews being more suitable for instances where individual, and more in-depth responses are required and focus groups typically preferable for discussions and gathering a range of viewpoints.…”

The 2021 Western Germany flood event: The value of flood risk dissemination strategies and social media

“…Flood forecasting depends fundamentally on the hydrological and meteorological laws of floods (Zhou et al 2021 ). A well functioning flood early warning system can reduce the levels of economic losses (Budimir et al 2020 ); however, several barriers still exist that relate to accessing early warning information, processing it, understanding it and taking some action that allows communities to prevent the catastrophic effects of flood events (Budimir et al 2020 ). In addition, challenges remain on how warning messages are communicated to communities (Grothmann & Reusswig 2006 ; Intrieri et al 2020 ) to make them useful for the reduction of flood-related disasters (Budimir et al 2020 ) through early warning systems (EWS).…”

“…A well functioning flood early warning system can reduce the levels of economic losses (Budimir et al 2020 ); however, several barriers still exist that relate to accessing early warning information, processing it, understanding it and taking some action that allows communities to prevent the catastrophic effects of flood events (Budimir et al 2020 ). In addition, challenges remain on how warning messages are communicated to communities (Grothmann & Reusswig 2006 ; Intrieri et al 2020 ) to make them useful for the reduction of flood-related disasters (Budimir et al 2020 ) through early warning systems (EWS). Early warning systems are regarded as the capacity to generate and disseminate potential hazard information that facilitates mitigation against harm by individuals, households and communities (Cools, Innocenti & O’Brien 2016 ).…”

“…The main objective of EWS is to reduce human life and economic losses (Kreibich, Hudson & Merz 2021 ; Potter, Harrison & Kreft 2021 ) through the provision of information that allows action by individuals and communities before the emerging hazard has struck (Rana et al 2021 ). Early warning systems are usually composed of four pillars, namely risk knowledge, monitoring, dissemination and communicating (Budimir et al 2020 ; Cools et al 2016 ). The majority of Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS) are anchored on observational precipitation data, which is normally gathered through surface-based measurements, for example, radars and rain gauges, which are activated when certain thresholds are reached (Cloke & Pappenberger 2009 ), while on the other hand, numerical weather models can be used to make a future forecast of 2–15 days ahead (Cloke & Pappenberger 2009 ).…”

Improving the Use of Hydrologic Probabilistic and Deterministic Information in Decision-Making

“…Similarly, Michaels (2015, p. 44) indicated that "The use of probabilistic flood forecasts is in tune with the wider trend in public policy to employ risk-based decision making." While probabilistic forecasts provide information on the range of possible outcomes and thus are explicit about the uncertainty inherent in a given forecast, there remain questions about how to effectively present such information recognizing that there are various public and professional audiences (Budimir et al 2020). As a result, conveying uncertainty is a significant risk communication challenge (Severtson and Myers 2003).…”